Three Free Agent Centers the Devils Should Avoid

The New Jersey Devils would be wise (for several different reasons) to steer clear of these three free-agent centers.

As much as I’m still disappointed about the Devils’ postseason departure, I really am quite excited to dive into the off-season content I’ve been looking forward to for a while. I’ve already begun on my draft target series, in which I will be going into obscene depth about the players I think the Devils should have on their radar in *every* round of the draft, and now it’s time to rotate in some free-agency content. From now until early July, I’m going to be hard at work providing as much content as I can throw at you in every way imaginable.

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One of the New Jersey Devils’ unequivocal biggest needs to address this coming offseason is center depth, which was exposed in particular after superstar Jack Hughes went down with a season-ending injury. With the team’s top center out, they were forced to play Dawson Mercer, who is much better on the wing, in the second-line center role, with Cody Glass occupying third-line duties and Justin Dowling centering the fourth line. With practically no center depth in the system, this was the hand they were forced to deal with.

The Devils have two routes to go with in free agency — one is to get a third-line center who can play up in the lineup if need be, and the other is to acquire a top-six wing/center who can slide over to the middle if they have to. Either way, center depth is an issue for the team, and they’re going to need to spend, either via trade or in free agency, to fix it.

There are a ton of options down the middle in free agency this year. I’ll be deep-diving targets I like for the Devils in the near future, but for now, I figured it would be a worthwhile endeavor to speak of three targets I would outright avoid (for different reasons) on July 1.

Without further ado, let’s get into it.

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1. Sam Bennett

The #1 target for many a Devils fan this offseason is Sam Bennett of the Florida Panthers. Bennett, who will be 29 years old next season, is currently riding a $4.425 million cap hit and providing the Panthers with sturdy play in a second-line capacity.

The truth is, there really isn’t a better target than Bennett for what the Devils are looking for, conceptually. As I said earlier, they need either a third-line center who can play up in the lineup in the case of injury, or a second-line winger to play alongside one of the Devils’ heavy-hitters who can slide over if they get hurt. Check. Bennett can play in either of those situations.

They need players who can score and drive play. Check. Bennett scored 25 goals in 2024-25 and has passed the 20-goal mark three out of the last four seasons. His career-high in points isn’t spectacular (51), but he does drive play as well as being a finisher.

They need players who play with speed and pace. Check. Bennett ranked in the 56th percentile for top speed and 76th percentile for speed bursts of 20+ mph. Even if his top speed isn’t in the upper echelon of the league, he reaches it quickly and can play at a pace that is more conducive to that of the core players.

There are some who believe the Devils need to play with more of an edge. I’m not one of them, but it’s not a deterrent to me by any means — if a player is a good player, they’re a good player. I don’t really care how they get to that status. Regardless, check. Bennett plays on the line at all times and oftentimes steps over it. If that’s your thing, there’s no better guy available.

So then, why is he on this list? It’s pretty simple, I think.

Reason for Avoidance: Cap Hit

The problem is that Bennett is going to get paid. Big time.

David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period, who can be hit or miss on his rumors, has reported that Bennett’s camp is expecting “north of $7 million” per year. Bennett is good, don’t get me wrong, but he isn’t seven million dollars a year plus good. To pay a player whose career-high in points is 51 that much money would be a crime. The Devils already have one albatross contract for a player producing well below his value in Ondrej Palat.

If your next argument is “Well, Timo Meier gets paid $8.8 million a year and he’s scored 52 and 53 points in his two full seasons with the Devils,” I see your argument and understand it, but these are two different players in two different circumstances, and I’ll explain why.

1. Meier’s offensive ceiling is much, much higher. He has matched or surpassed Bennett’s career-high in goals four separate times, including seasons with 40 and 35 goals.

2. Meier’s on-ice impacts are better than Bennett’s across the board, outside of actual goals for. Meier is better than Bennett at individually impacting his team’s expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and shot attempts for per hour (CF/60), and significantly better on the defensive front, drastically suppressing more expected goals against per hour (xGA/60) and shot attempts against per hour (CA/60). Bennett, full-stop, is an atrocious defensive player. Meier, on the other hand, is generally very good.

   

   via Evolving Hockey

2. Mikael Granlund

Next up on the list of free agent centers to avoid is Mikael Granlund, who, after spending a couple of seasons in San Jose, where he was quite productive, was shipped off to the Dallas Stars near the trade deadline. He scored 21 points — seven goals, 14 assists — in their last 31 games and has contributed a goal and an assist in eight playoff games so far this postseason. He, too, is a player I’ve seen many a Devils fan tout as a solid option.

If I were Tom Fitzgerald, though, I would steer clear.

Reason(s) for Avoidance: Aging Curves, Cap Hit, On-Ice Impact

There are three reasons that I believe the Devils should stay away from adding Granlund to their roster:

1. He’s going into his age-34 season. As much as sure, he was one of the faster skaters in the league this season (he ranked in the 69th percentile for speed bursts of 20+ mph), his legs are getting older, and he’s probably not going to be able to keep it up for a long time. In all likelihood, Granlund and his camp are looking for term on their next contract — he just had a productive season at 32/33 years old and I’m sure he wants to cash in before things go south. I can’t imagine he’s asking for less than five years in free agency, and for the Devils to sign up for a player who will only be slowing down and would be 39 years old at the end of that deal would be a drastic mistake.

2. Simply put, Granlund is going to get paid too much. He’s had solid point production throughout his career, surpassing the 60-point threshold five times, including in the last two seasons, but there are certainly some red flags at best. For one, the stigma around him as a two-way player is undeniably incorrect — he is lazy and ineffective defensively. Two, he was inflated by his ice time. San Jose had a phenomenal display of asset management in the past two years, picking Granlund up after a down season and pumping him chock-full of ice time to squeeze every last drop of production out of him before flipping him for a first-rounder near the deadline. Every bottom-feeding team should be seeking to emulate this strategy. Thirdly, in terms of the red flags, is…

3. Granlund’s on-ice impacts are garbage. I know some don’t care for analytics, but I’m a huge advocate for the models generally having a better eye than the average watcher, and the results there are harrowing at best.
   

   
   Offensively, Granlund is ever-so-slightly below average from an individual standpoint, according to the underlying metrics. His goal share per 60 minutes was positive, but his impact on the Sharks/Stars’ xGF/60 and CF/60 was a net negative over the full 2024-25 season.
   
   Defensively, as I alluded to earlier, the models reflect my own eye-test of him being unengaged and poorly positioned. Granlund’s defensive RAPM¹ is nearly off-the-charts bad.

   

   via Evolving Hockey

   If the Devils are going to go for a guy they believe can contribute meaningfully in the top-six when called upon, I would hope the player they choose to take on that role is actually worthy of garnering those minutes instead of happening upon points because of time-on-ice exposure rather than actually solid gameplay.

3. Christian Dvorak

Third on the list is Montreal Canadiens’ middle-six center Christian Dvorak, who had a solid enough season to warrant some attention in free agency. His 33 points were tied for the third-most of his career, and he has surpassed double-digit goal totals in seven of his nine NHL seasons. He’s only played in 14 playoff games, garnering five total points in that time.

The Devils, though, would be wise to let that free agent attention go to other teams.

Reason(s) for Avoidance: Talent, Redundancy

There are two reasons to steer clear of adding Christian Dvorak in free agency:

1. Skill: Dvorak, simply speaking, isn’t all that great a hockey player. He might be playing second-line minutes with the Canadiens, but that doesn’t mean he’s deserving of those minutes on a team with Cup aspirations. As great as Montreal’s season was, they were never really getting past the first round, and I don’t think there’s much argument against that.
   
   On the defensive front, there shouldn’t be any complaints about Dvorak’s game. He’s a hard worker and positions himself well. If the Devils are looking to add speed, Dvorak certainly has that, too (he ranked in the 94th percentile for speed bursts of 20+ mph).

   
   Offensively, though, Dvorak brings almost no juice. His production has never warranted more than third-line duties, and I assume the Devils’ goal is to add someone who can play up in the lineup if need be. Whereas some players’ point production isn’t indicative of the impact they have on the game from an offensive standpoint — players like William Carrier, Kevin Labanc, and Nico Sturm are pretty good examples of that — Dvorak’s is probably a bit overinflated. His 33 points while playing over 15 minutes a night are pretty pedestrian, especially considering he was fed middle-six quality linemates all season.
   
   Looking at his underlying impacts, though, I’m led to believe he probably deserved less. He doesn’t drive play, shoot often, or extend puck possessions, and might actually be one of the worst passers in the league. Seems to me that the only thing he’s genuinely good at is generating rebounds. The Devils certainly don’t need more of that.

   

   via AllThreeZones

2. Redundancy: The Devils need playdriving in their bottom six, and Dvorak does not contribute that. Again, he’s a fine defensive player — above average, even — but contributes nothing meaningful from an offensive perspective. Tom Fitzgerald, in his media outing yesterday, mentioned that bringing back the same group was going to be a no-go, and turmoil outside of the core players should be expected. In my head, I’m imagining that as an indictment on the bottom-six as a whole and their general inability to play any sort of offensive role in the game. Dvorak is another player who fits that archetype.
   

   I assume Cody Glass will be back next season, and he, as the likely 4C, can fill the role of an above-average defensive player who doesn’t generate a whole lot of offense. In fact, Glass is quietly one of the best defensive centers in the league and still probably produces more of an offensive spark than Dvorak. Paul Cotter, unless traded (which is unlikely), will be back, too, and he is sturdy defensively as well while providing minimal offensive impact from an underlying standpoint. If Erik Haula is still in a Devils uniform next season, add him to the list of players that apply to that fit as well. If Stefan Noesen gets relegated to bottom-six duties, add yet another player to that list. Dvorak is completely unnecessary.

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There you have it — three centers I would avoid in free agency if I were the Devils. Bennett is a very good hockey player, but you need someone with more offensive/production upside and priors for a cap hit that high. Granlund is getting older and will be looking for a long-term extension to capitalize on his excellent season production-wise and stigma, despite being a not-so-good player under the hood. Dvorak, meanwhile, isn’t overwhelmingly talented and should be avoided simply for that fact.

Honorable mentions: John Tavares (cap hit, age, never going to happen anyway), Robby Fabbri (flat-out one of the worst centers in the league), Luke Kunin (see: Robby Fabbri), Radek Faksa (redundant), Lars Eller (redundant, old), Marcus Johansson (redundant, old), Curtis Lazar (not very good anymore, redundant).

1. RAPM, or Regularized-Adjusted Plus-Minus, is a way to measure a player’s individual impact on the game, independent of factors out of the player’s control, like deployment, teammates, opponents, playing on a back-to-back, etc. Evolving Hockey’s RAPM model uses a technique called ridge regression — a type of linear regression — to adjust for these factors without the computer overcorrecting to small sample sizes. I won’t bore you with the nitty gritty of it all, but you can read their full write-up on their model here if you’re interested. It’s actually quite fascinating if you’re a math nerd like me or trying to immerse yourself deeper into the world of hockey analytics (also like me).