The Impact of Speed on the Devils' 2024-25 Play
The New Jersey Devils are noticeably slower than they were in 2022-23. What influence has this had on their results?
The Devils find themselves relatively comfortably in a playoff spot for the first time since the record-breaking 2022-23 season, but the team is drastically different from then. mn7
For one, the coaching system is the near-polar opposite. Under Lindy Ruff, the 2022-23 Devils prioritized one thing: rush hockey. They cared not for in-zone play but focused on the inherently more dangerous odd-man rush opportunities and generating as many of them as possible. It was recklessly effective and exhilaratingly fun to watch.
This season, things are more methodical. The defensive approach is safer — rather than shooting the puck up-ice to a streaking forward, defensemen often choose shorter-spanning passes to their partners or the closest forward to the puck. Their offense is more focused on cyclical play, keeping — or trying to keep — the puck hemmed in the offensive zone and capitalizing on a tired defense after long possessions.
The other difference is the personnel — the groups are pretty different outside of the core forwards. Looking at the two lineups, though, there isn’t a noticeable difference in the skill level between the forward groups on the two teams:
Lines from 2022-23
Tomas Tatar - Nico Hischier - Dawson Mercer
Yegor Sharangovich - Jack Hughes - Jesper Bratt
Ondrej Palat - Erik Haula - Jesper Boqvist
Miles Wood - Michael McLeod - Nathan Bastian/Fabian Zetterlund
Lines from 2024-25
Timo Meier - Nico Hischier - Stefan Noesen
Ondrej Palat - Jack Hughes - Jesper Bratt
Paul Cotter - Erik Haula - Dawson Mercer
Tomas Tatar - Curtis Lazar/Justin Dowling - Nathan Bastian
In fact, there is a legitimate argument that the Devils’ squad this season is more skilled than it was in their best season in team history. The point is, pure skill isn’t the issue as to why the offense has dried up.
It’s speed.
Not top speed, though. Quickness. Explosiveness. The 2022-23 Devils had 1706 speed bursts of above 20 mph, in a season in which the average number of bursts was 1626.8. The 2024-24 Devils are on pace for 1601 of these bursts in a season in which the average is on pace to be almost 1750. They’re monumentally slower, and the rest of the league is getting faster.
Impactful Losses of Speed From the 2022-23 Lineup
Looking at the lineups, one thing is clear: the team is slower. But what — or who — did they lose that made the biggest impact?
Michael McLeod
The Devils sorely miss Michael McLeod — or at least his archetype — for a plethora of reasons. Putting aside the off-ice stuff, he truly was a unicornical1 bottom-six player. He was a faceoff specialist. He was an unstoppable force in transition. He had excellent playmaking chops. He was physical. He was gritty. Most of all, he was fast. He alone contributed 202 speed bursts of 20+ mph, accounting for 11.8% of the team’s total for the season and ranking in the 94th percentile in the entire NHL. As soon as he needed to get going, his legs churned and he was at his top speed at the drop of a hat.
Jesper Boqvist
Another bottom-sixer who the Devils sorely miss for a few reasons is Jesper Boqvist, who is enjoying a nice season for himself as a bottom-six staple for the Florida Panthers. He didn’t quite have the explosiveness that McLeod had, but his 106 20+ mph bursts were good for the 77th percentile in the league. He too was effective in transition, and while it wasn’t necessarily because of his acceleration, his combination of speed and hands led him to be an effective rush player in the Devils’ bottom six.
Miles Wood
Shocker. Another fourth-liner who was speedy was lost and the Devils’ bottom-six has struggled to generate any offense this season. Miles Wood was a lot of things for the Devils — predominantly reckless, undisciplined, and annoying to watch most of the time — but he was undeniably fast and got to his top speed incredibly quickly. In fact, he was in the 97th percentile for both top speed and bursts over 20+ mph. His 13 goals may have seemed unimpressive on paper, but he was a legitimate rush threat from the fourth line that the Devils would kill to have now, minus the brain-lapsed penalties.
It was changes like this that had me clamoring for players like Warren Foegele, William Carrier, and Daniel Sprong this past off-season — bottom-nine caliber players who were fast, explosive, and can contribute offensively. The Devils lost a ton of speed in the bottom half of their roster, and it’s caused that part of their complexion to be a major point of pain.
The Devils made one move that really made sense in this regard, and it was trading for Paul Cotter. Cotter ranks in the 90th percentile for speed bursts, with 116 already. The Devils needed more of that, not more of Kurtis MacDermid or Tomas Tatar.
The Impact on 5v5 Rush Offense
Unsurprisingly, this has resulted in a drastically different offensive output than the team we saw in 2022-23, predominantly in the amount of rush chances that are generated per 60 minutes. Let’s first see how the Devils produce their offense this season:
This tracks with the eye test. The Devils still have the top-end core players who are dual threats (Hughes, Bratt, Hischier, Meier), puck-movers who can reach them with stretch passes (L. Hughes, Hamilton), and their system promotes more focus on the cycle.
Now, for 2022-23’s results:
So, the Devils went from the team generating the most rush chances by far in the NHL to one generating the 11th most. The other thing that I will note is that the axes are completely different — the NHL is shooting far fewer than it has in recent years this season (because teams are emphasizing getting higher-danger chances off and sacrificing volume).
That doesn’t change the fact, though, that rush chances are inherently more dangerous than cycle/forecheck chances, and the Devils are producing nearly seven fewer per hour at 5v5.
Unfortunately, not many of the names out there are particularly speedy. Kyle Palmieri, Dylan Cozens, Brad Marchand, and Jake Evans are speedy and quick (and reportedly on the block), but Cozens and Marchand are far cries and Lou Lamiorello might be looking to add this season if the Islanders keep on winning.
Next season, the Devils will have the opportunity to revamp some of their bottom six to fill this need — Tatar, Bastian, Dowling, and Lazar are all on expiring deals. Bastian should probably stay for his defensive aptitude, but there are clear upgrades out there on all three of the other names. Arseni Gritsyuk will help, but outside of him, the Devils will need to prioritize getting faster and quicker.
Tom Fitzgerald needs to channel his overcorrecting ways, put his blinders on, and get some more speed in the bottom half of the lineup. The offense depends on it.
I’ve used it in the past, and I’ll keep using it over and over again. Unicornical should be a word, and you should add it to your vocabulary. Consider this my official petition to Merriam-Webster for it to be made a real, tangible, dictionary-defined word. It’s perfect. You’re welcome.