Tom Fitzgerald became the General Manager of the New Jersey Devils prior to the 2020 NHL Entry Draft -- is the reputation of being a poor drafter warranted?
Well done. Let's assume for a moment that the Devils organization or at least a consulting company the Devils hired have 10x the resources that JP Gambatese has. If yes, what else donthey need to know? This plus; the trades that didn't work or that we have nothing to show for (i.e. Toffoli), the bad contracts with NMC/NTC, the poor use of players skills and/or shifting the teams away from its record breaking 2022-2023 strengths, the bad goaltending decision, no moves at the 2026 deadline and more that I am sure I am forgetting. I hope Blitzer and Harris and Marty too can read and if they can, they should read this article. I want to give the next guy as much runway as possible to get the draft and free agency right
Great post as usual. I agree with everything you said and I have no clue how they picked Stillman. However, I have to ask is this all drafting or is this a development issue. I feel Holz was not a stretch when he was picked, but I feel NJ may have caused issues in his development. How many players have we developed over the past couple of years? Is this a draft issue, development issue or both?
Appreciate the kind words! I tend to lean towards both being an issue. As an example, Holtz was less consensus than, say, Rossi, but still could/should have been an impact player. Nemec was a “fine” pick but was not the consensus over Cooley/Wright, and I’m certain his development would have been different/better with more ice time (not necessarily anyone’s fault — the Devils were supposed to be a team that doesn’t necessarily care about developing a player in the midst of their Cup window).
Then there are Stillman and Mukhamadullin, neither of whom were first-round projections.
So I do think a lot of it has to do with talent identification from the scouting team/GM. Developmentally, the Devils could obviously could improve too!
I think post-draft WAR is the wrong framework because of hindsight bias.
The key question is who was BPA prior to the draft.
Whether they live up to their potential is another matter. Sometimes they work out, often they don't.
For example, I can't fault chosing Nemec because was an absolute statistical unicorn in his draft year. Nemec was the right pick, who hasnt lived up to his potential. The only potential caveat are that models overrated the Slovak league, making his profile look better than reality.
The Stillman and Casey picks, on the other hand, were massive blunders. There were other players with far better profiles who were passed on (Zellweger and Hutson) that were clearly BPA.
I’m interested in why hindsight is the proxy here — the entire point of redrafts/post-draft analysis is to reflect on the hits/misses. The fact of the matter is that even on players deemed to be consensus (Luke, for example), the play hasn’t been there.
As far as BPA, consensus at the time was that Rossi > Holtz, Wright/Cooley > Nemec, that Mukhamadullin was a second-plus-rounder, and Stillman was a multi-round reach.
Re: "the entire point of redrafts/post-draft analysis is to reflect on the hits/misses."
The whole point of redrafts is to delve into the data available at the time to determine whether decision-making prior to the draft was optimal. Otherwise, one's analysis is easily tainted by hindsight bias.
The most interesting and useful part of redrafts involves using emerging analytical models/techniques to better evaluate prospects prior to the draft because it can contribute to decision-making for future drafts. Doing so avoids resulting, where people judge the quality of a decision solely by its outcome.
For instance, who was truly BPA at 2OA in 2022? Delving into the data of Nemec's DY revealed that he was one of the best D prospects in decades. His upside was tremendous.
But was his profile overrated because the Slovak league was itself overrated? Was there data about his defensive play that should've sounded alarm bells had better statistical models/techniques been available? These are all useful questions because they better-inform decision-making without using data that was unavailable at the time (e.g., post-draft WAR).
I watched a lot of Coley and felt he was the best pick. He wasn't picked because he was a smallish center. In the draft almost always take the best player, which for me was Coley. In fairness Nemec was my 2nd choice
I hope Tom Fitzgerald has a staffer who prints these blogs and puts them on his desk. If you are consistently mock picking the right guys, why doesn’t NJD have the insight to do it themselves? Our drafting is definitely holding us back and something has to shift.
I think a lot of it has to do with prioritizing size/physicality over talent (i.e. the very physical Stillman over the diminutive Zellweger/Stankoven and the gigantic/physical Silayev over the diminutive Buium) and picking for positional “need” over talent (i.e. Nemec over Cooley/Wright).
Picking for need over picking BPA has never really made sense to me — by the time these draftees make the show and turn into what their projections *should* be, the needs of the team at that time can vary immensely. Picking the best player regardless of position is what makes great teams great.
Great article again, thanks JP! Just by reading all content about drafts on Twitter and follow “the consensus” clearly gets better results than what the Devils scouting team did!
Untrue . Luke will be very good .Same with Nemec. Hotlz was traded for Cotter . Stillman traded for Glass . I would much rather have Cotter and Glass than Holtz ( Holtz just went on wavers and no one picked him up) . and Glass. , 2024 Silayev , 2023 Hameenaho ,Squires ,2022 Nemec ,Casey ,2021 Luke ,Vilen , 2020 holtz (Cotter ) , Mercer , Mukhamadulin ( Mier ) Daws, 2029 -JACK HUGHES .
I absolutely agree that Luke and Nemec WILL be good players, but the reality is that they aren’t YET.
I would also *now* rather have Glass and Cotter rather than Holtz and Stillman, but I’d rather have Rossi/Stankoven or Jarvis/Zellweger or any combination of the players drafted immediately after than than the combination of Glass & Cotter.
or dylan geunther/wallstedt, or traded down for brandt/eklund instead of luke . silly stuff . in all honesty mercer/nemo/prospect, pick is a much better get then what the canucks got . the reality is fitz handcuffed himself to the hughes bro trifecta . in reality quinn and luke play the exact same position so quinn being the better player pushes luke down the totem pole . no way around that . so you think he's gonna be happy about it ? even if it's his brother ? also there's a rumor out there that quinn even said he wouldn't do that to luke . is it true? have no idea . but it is something a brother would say .
Well done. Let's assume for a moment that the Devils organization or at least a consulting company the Devils hired have 10x the resources that JP Gambatese has. If yes, what else donthey need to know? This plus; the trades that didn't work or that we have nothing to show for (i.e. Toffoli), the bad contracts with NMC/NTC, the poor use of players skills and/or shifting the teams away from its record breaking 2022-2023 strengths, the bad goaltending decision, no moves at the 2026 deadline and more that I am sure I am forgetting. I hope Blitzer and Harris and Marty too can read and if they can, they should read this article. I want to give the next guy as much runway as possible to get the draft and free agency right
Great post as usual. I agree with everything you said and I have no clue how they picked Stillman. However, I have to ask is this all drafting or is this a development issue. I feel Holz was not a stretch when he was picked, but I feel NJ may have caused issues in his development. How many players have we developed over the past couple of years? Is this a draft issue, development issue or both?
Appreciate the kind words! I tend to lean towards both being an issue. As an example, Holtz was less consensus than, say, Rossi, but still could/should have been an impact player. Nemec was a “fine” pick but was not the consensus over Cooley/Wright, and I’m certain his development would have been different/better with more ice time (not necessarily anyone’s fault — the Devils were supposed to be a team that doesn’t necessarily care about developing a player in the midst of their Cup window).
Then there are Stillman and Mukhamadullin, neither of whom were first-round projections.
So I do think a lot of it has to do with talent identification from the scouting team/GM. Developmentally, the Devils could obviously could improve too!
First off, love the content JP. Keep it coming!
I think post-draft WAR is the wrong framework because of hindsight bias.
The key question is who was BPA prior to the draft.
Whether they live up to their potential is another matter. Sometimes they work out, often they don't.
For example, I can't fault chosing Nemec because was an absolute statistical unicorn in his draft year. Nemec was the right pick, who hasnt lived up to his potential. The only potential caveat are that models overrated the Slovak league, making his profile look better than reality.
The Stillman and Casey picks, on the other hand, were massive blunders. There were other players with far better profiles who were passed on (Zellweger and Hutson) that were clearly BPA.
Thank you!
I’m interested in why hindsight is the proxy here — the entire point of redrafts/post-draft analysis is to reflect on the hits/misses. The fact of the matter is that even on players deemed to be consensus (Luke, for example), the play hasn’t been there.
As far as BPA, consensus at the time was that Rossi > Holtz, Wright/Cooley > Nemec, that Mukhamadullin was a second-plus-rounder, and Stillman was a multi-round reach.
Re: "the entire point of redrafts/post-draft analysis is to reflect on the hits/misses."
The whole point of redrafts is to delve into the data available at the time to determine whether decision-making prior to the draft was optimal. Otherwise, one's analysis is easily tainted by hindsight bias.
The most interesting and useful part of redrafts involves using emerging analytical models/techniques to better evaluate prospects prior to the draft because it can contribute to decision-making for future drafts. Doing so avoids resulting, where people judge the quality of a decision solely by its outcome.
For instance, who was truly BPA at 2OA in 2022? Delving into the data of Nemec's DY revealed that he was one of the best D prospects in decades. His upside was tremendous.
See e.g., https://x.com/byronmbader/status/1522642598338342912
But was his profile overrated because the Slovak league was itself overrated? Was there data about his defensive play that should've sounded alarm bells had better statistical models/techniques been available? These are all useful questions because they better-inform decision-making without using data that was unavailable at the time (e.g., post-draft WAR).
I watched a lot of Coley and felt he was the best pick. He wasn't picked because he was a smallish center. In the draft almost always take the best player, which for me was Coley. In fairness Nemec was my 2nd choice
I hope Tom Fitzgerald has a staffer who prints these blogs and puts them on his desk. If you are consistently mock picking the right guys, why doesn’t NJD have the insight to do it themselves? Our drafting is definitely holding us back and something has to shift.
I think a lot of it has to do with prioritizing size/physicality over talent (i.e. the very physical Stillman over the diminutive Zellweger/Stankoven and the gigantic/physical Silayev over the diminutive Buium) and picking for positional “need” over talent (i.e. Nemec over Cooley/Wright).
Picking for need over picking BPA has never really made sense to me — by the time these draftees make the show and turn into what their projections *should* be, the needs of the team at that time can vary immensely. Picking the best player regardless of position is what makes great teams great.
Yea. I completely agree about BPA. You can always use a stud prospect in the future as the centerpiece of a big trade (you outlined examples)
Or slot them in and trade the guy who is occupying the spot
This made me angry so I’m going to take it out on you. Good article though
I’m sorry. But also thank you!
Great article again, thanks JP! Just by reading all content about drafts on Twitter and follow “the consensus” clearly gets better results than what the Devils scouting team did!
Agree Alan, Fitz is crafty at trades. He did parlay draft busts into bottom 6 players.
Btw - how do we feel about Zacha for Haula? Think Zacha would have been a Mercer type - top 6 winger or 3C?
Untrue . Luke will be very good .Same with Nemec. Hotlz was traded for Cotter . Stillman traded for Glass . I would much rather have Cotter and Glass than Holtz ( Holtz just went on wavers and no one picked him up) . and Glass. , 2024 Silayev , 2023 Hameenaho ,Squires ,2022 Nemec ,Casey ,2021 Luke ,Vilen , 2020 holtz (Cotter ) , Mercer , Mukhamadulin ( Mier ) Daws, 2029 -JACK HUGHES .
I absolutely agree that Luke and Nemec WILL be good players, but the reality is that they aren’t YET.
I would also *now* rather have Glass and Cotter rather than Holtz and Stillman, but I’d rather have Rossi/Stankoven or Jarvis/Zellweger or any combination of the players drafted immediately after than than the combination of Glass & Cotter.
or dylan geunther/wallstedt, or traded down for brandt/eklund instead of luke . silly stuff . in all honesty mercer/nemo/prospect, pick is a much better get then what the canucks got . the reality is fitz handcuffed himself to the hughes bro trifecta . in reality quinn and luke play the exact same position so quinn being the better player pushes luke down the totem pole . no way around that . so you think he's gonna be happy about it ? even if it's his brother ? also there's a rumor out there that quinn even said he wouldn't do that to luke . is it true? have no idea . but it is something a brother would say .