Devils Must Stay Buyers with Jack Hughes Injured
Devils superstar Jack Hughes went down with an ugly injury last night, but it shouldn't change the course of their trade deadline.
Woof.
The 2024-25 season has been an absolute rollercoaster for the New Jersey Devils. They started off streaky but solid before putting together a dominant December and cementing themselves as playoff contenders. They followed that stretch up with some of the ugliest hockey they’ve played in seasons during a stretch from the very end of December all the way until the Four Nations Tournament. Since then, they’ve looked better but are still inconsistent, alternating wins and losses, but generally looking like a more polished crew.
Last night was no exception to this rule. They were in a spirited battle with the Vegas Golden Knights, a sure-fire playoff-caliber team with Stanley Cup aspirations. After two periods, the score was tied 0-0, shots were 16-15 Devils, and neither team had taken a penalty. It truly looked like playoff hockey until the Devils took two penalties leading to two power-play goals against.
And then, it happened.
With less than two minutes to go in regulation, Jack Hughes and Jack Eichel got tangled up at full speed while Hughes was pushing for a goal. Eichel tripped up Hughes and they both went full-speed into the boards.
Jack went arms first, as we’ve seen so many times before. Sure enough, he didn’t get up for minutes, and when he did, he was clutching his arm like he did the last instance he dislocated his shoulder. I’m no doctor, but neither one of my theories of either yet another shoulder dislocation or a broken wrist bode particularly well for the Devils.
In the best-case scenario, Jack puts on his best Wolverine impression and doesn’t miss any time. In the more likely scenario, he misses at least a few weeks if not the remainder of the regular season.
With the 2024 Trade Deadline just four days away, the Devils were perceived buyers until this point, and they still should be.
I understand, in concept, the reaction of “Well, now that Jack’s done, the season is over and the Devils need to sell.”
I don’t agree with that, though, at all. Let’s get into why.
A Quick, Related Tangent
Before I jump into why the Devils need to stay buyers, I’d first like to go on a quick tangent about roster building and overcompensation.
I’ve been steadfast about this point all season — the Devils’ 2024 off-season was largely a mess and it boils down to GM Tom Fitzgerald being reactionary and overcompensatory. No one complained about the team complexion in the 2022-23 season until they were faced with a Carolina Hurricanes team whose system directly preyed upon rush-heavy teams and was arguably the league’s best team up and down the lineup that season. Sure enough, the Devils lost in that series and were bounced out in the second round, and sure enough, the loud, insufferably annoying part of the fanbase clamored on and on about how the team was “too soft” and “not hard enough to play against.”
Enter Fitzgerald, who took that and ran. He’s always had a pension for big, gritty guys, but my understanding was always that he was a generally savvy manager who understood that skill dominates the game much more than physicality. After watching his off-season translate poorly, I’m not so sure I have that confidence anymore.
I still think he’s a good GM, to be clear, in most regards. I like that he’s patient, I like that he respects the analytics department (even if it might not be his choice), I like his demeanor, and I generally like his trades and understanding of value. What I don’t like, predominantly, is his penance for overreacting and overadjusting.
Getting one or two guys to “make the team harder to play against” in the right manner is a great thing. Skilled grit is one of the most coveted assets in hockey for a reason. The Tkachuk brothers; Tom Wilson; Filip Forsberg; Timo Meier — all of these players make their money from being physical forces who are able to punish their opponents and get into the dirty areas. They also can beat you with their skill.
The only player Fitzgerald acquired last offseason who checks those boxes is Paul Cotter, and even at the time of the trade, there were legitimate gripes with the value being sent back the other way from a ceiling standpoint. Stefan Noesen worked out because of his utility on the power play but is largely ineffective at providing offense at even strength. Johnathan Kovacevic has proven to be a product of Jonas Siegenthaler, and despite his defensive aptitude as a whole this season, offense dies on his stick. Brenden Dillon has been the Devils’ worst defenseman and he’s signed for far too much and far too long.1 Tomas Tatar made a name for himself by being hard to play against despite his stature and has been an offensive black hole this season. Even Brett Pesce was brought in to be “hard to play against,” and I definitely see a legitimate argument for him being another solid addition to add to this list but he struggles to drive play up-ice most of the time.
Add on top of that the ridiculous Kurtis MacDermid extension that runs for another two years at $1.15 million per. Or drafting 6’7 Anton Silayev2 instead of the best picks available in Sam Dickinson or Zeev Buium. Hell, I know it’s too early to project most of these guys, but every player Fitzgerald drafted in the 2024 Draft was huge.
Now, the Devils are absolutely gritty. They’re fifth in the NHL in hits (which some people will yell at me about and say that hits don’t equal physicality) and lead the league in fighting majors. They’re also the ninth most penalized team in the league and sit 22nd in the league in even-strength goals per game.
This pattern of overreaction isn’t a new thing, either. When the Devils missed on Johnny Gaudreau in free agency years ago, Fitzgerald immediately pivoted to a lesser player and doled out an albatross contract to Ondrej Palat, who wasn’t worth the money then and certainly isn’t now. When Matt Rempe went on his rampage against the Devils, Fitzgerald shipped out a draft pick and center prospect Zakhar Bardakhov — who is lighting it up in the KHL now — for the worst player in the National Hockey League in MacDermid (who, as mentioned, he then extended for three years). In a good way, Fitzgerald completely revamped the goaltending after the 2023-24 season, which saw goalies be the dominating force behind their win-loss record, and now the team has a top-two goalie tandem in terms of GSAx and their goalies keep them in every game.
Now, I agree that the best course of action is overcompensation for a team deficit, and that team deficit is goal scoring and skill.
Why Should the Devils Stay Buyers?
With that tangent out of the way, let’s address why the Devils need to stay buyers.
Optics
Not only did the Devils make the playoffs in 2022-23 and expedite their rebuild, they had a franchise-record season that included a 13-game win streak. By all accounts, that was their sign that it was time for their rebuild to end. Last season, injuries and poor goaltending sank a season that otherwise would have gone just about the same considering the underlying metrics. For the team to go without a postseason berth for a second year would be legitimately franchise-altering. The team was rebuilding from 2015 until 2023 — it’s just time.
Can’t Waste Core Years
The Devils’ core is still so, so young, but it’s important to note that in terms of age curves, this is their peak. Jack is 23. Nico Hischier is 26. Timo Meier is 28. Jesper Bratt is 26. Fitzgerald simply cannot waste another year of these players’ primes by selling off if Jack is out long-term. They’re too good to squander their primes because one event didn’t go their way.
On top of that, Markstrom and Allen are providing incredible goaltending, and though they’re not necessarily “core” pieces, how much longer will the Devils have goalies performing this well? With the core in their primes and the team having contender-level goaltending, there simply needs to be a commitment to winning.
LTIR Pool Gives Way to Long-Term Solutions
Let’s say that Jack lands on long-term injured reserve (LTIR), which I would argue is pretty likely. This will give the Devils about $13 million to play with at the deadline. With the cap rising as much as it is, they can easily go for players with term without the need for salary retention.
The Devils have the core pieces. The Devils have the draft capital and assets. The Devils need to spend that money on pieces that can contribute when Jack returns and for multiple seasons on end.
Who Can/Should the Devils Target?
With that in mind, there are a few pieces that could help the Devils both now and in the future who are now easier to acquire because of the cap implications of Jack’s injury.
Rickard Rakell
I’ve been on the Rickard Rakell train for a while now, and for good reason. He’s signed for three seasons after this one at a more than reasonable $5 million AAV. The Penguins have been on record as saying they want to get younger, and the Devils have the assets to do so (sayonara, Seamus).
Rakell is in the middle of a stellar season playing alongside Sidney Crosby and is pacing for a 35-plus-goal campaign. He’s the kind of player I mentioned earlier — he has immense levels of skill but can still beat you physically — and would pair nicely as a complement to Jack and Bratt for the duration of his contract. He’s proven that he can play with stars before (and this season) and be an asset on both sides of the ice while doing so.
He’s a plus finisher as well who scored goals at an above-expected rate more often than not. When he does finish below expected, it isn’t by much. The Devils certainly need goal-scoring, and Rakell would be an excellent addition for multiple seasons in that regard without sacrificing the grittiness that Fitzgerald so openly covets.
Jared McCann
Signed through the 2026-27 season, Jared McCann has reportedly been on the block for weeks, and he’s a name the Devils should be all over. Prior to this season, McCann had seasons of 29, 40, and 27 goals and is pacing for another 20-goal campaign this year.
Prior to this season — one in which the entirety of Seattle is struggling — McCann had gone five straight seasons with an expected goal share (xGF%) of above 50%. He also holds two of the three highest expected goals above replacement (xGAR) seasons in Kraken history.
He too is a positive on both sides of the ice, and despite not being the speediest of the bunch, is a solid enough transitional forward to make do while Jack is out. He shoots often and from all areas of the ice, finishing above expected in every season but this one since 2017-18.
Oliver Bjorkstrand
On a similar, yet cheaper note to McCann, Oliver Bjorkstrand has been made available by the Kraken. He’s got one season after this one at a fair $5.4 million, but is worth every penny.
Much like the previous two entries, Bjorkstrand is a net positive on both ends of the ice and is a scorer who has finished above expected throughout his career. This should be his fourth straight 20-goal season and sixth in the last seven years. He leads the Kraken in xGAR this season and is excellent at capitalizing on the hard work of playdriving teammates. He adapts to the flow of play extremely well and it’s hard for me to imagine his goal-scoring wouldn’t take it up a notch when playing with the likes of Jack, Bratt, and co. — players the likes of which he’s never played with before.
Dylan Cozens
This one is likely the toughest one to pull off simply because I’m unsure of how highly the Sabres value Cozens. He earned his $7.1 million AAV (which runs through 2030, aligning with the rest of the core) with a 31-goal, 68-point sophomore campaign but has largely disappointed since. There’s still reason to believe in the 24-year-old, though, and I certainly wouldn’t mind having more center depth in the organization.
Let me be clear in saying that there would absolutely be risk in this acquisition. He hasn’t performed up to his contract since signing it and is only pacing for 40-ish points this season.
Let me also be clear in that he does a lot of the things that the Devils need. He’s fast, ranking in the 64th percentile for top speed and 81st for speed bursts of 20+ mph (last season he ranked in the 88th and 80th, respectively. He excels in transition with the puck on his stick, being able to drive play with the best of them despite the results not necessarily being there.
I also think there’s good reason to believe he just needs a change of scenery. He’s only 24 years old and has proven that he can be a near-point-per-game player before. You don’t do that by accident. I, personally, would be giving the Sabres a call about Cozens (among others, but I’ll get into that in a different article).
Accepting Defeat is Unacceptable
In no world should the Devils just pack it in after seeing Jack go down — there’s just too much at stake. They should be looking to add not just one, but two top-six caliber forwards (with skill) as well as a stopgap third-line, playdriving center at the trade deadline. I know it’s extremely soon, but now is the time to act, and act with authority. Overcorrect to the scoring issues, it’s as simple as that.
Sorry Brenden, if you’re reading this.
I’ve come around on him and think Silayev will be a good player, but I even said on the day of the draft that Dickinson and Buium were the way to go. Flash forward to today, and they’re the two most highly touted defense prospects in the NHL.