Devils' Free Agent Target Profile: Claude Giroux
The New Jersey Devils should target Claude Giroux in free agency.
As much as I’m still disappointed about the Devils’ postseason departure, I really am quite excited to dive into the off-season content I’ve been looking forward to for a while. I’ve already begun on my draft target series, in which I will be going into obscene depth about the players I think the Devils should have on their radar in *every* round of the draft, and now it’s time to rotate in some free-agency content. From now until early July, I’m going to be hard at work providing as much content as I can throw at you in every way imaginable.
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Yesterday, I wrote of three free agent centers the New Jersey Devils should steer clear of in free agency: Sam Bennett, who is a good player but will not be worth his contract, Mikael Granlund, whose point production does not reflect the quality of player he actually is and will be given a contract too long in length, and Christian Dvorak, who isn’t very good and would be redundant on a team looking for more offensive juice in the bottom six.
Now, it’s time to look into the free agents I would target if I were Tom Fitzgerald, starting with Claude Giroux.
Giroux, 37, is in the last year of a three-year, $6.5 million AAV contract with the Ottawa Senators. It’s entirely possible that he’s brought back to Ottawa — the team has a good amount of cap space (~$17.5 million) with no big names to re-sign — but my money would be on Giroux seeking refuge in a different organization. I have to imagine that he’s searching for a better opportunity to compete for a Stanley Cup, being that he’ll be entering his age-38 season next year.
Giroux is likely only looking at a one-year contract at this point in his career, meaning that pursuing him in free agency is a pretty low-risk endeavor. Evolving Hockey is projecting his next contract at one year for $3.25 million.
For that price, there’s really no better option out there for what the Devils are seeking.
The organization as a whole is in desperate need of center depth, or, at the very least, acquiring a winger who can slide to the middle if need be. Giroux is the perfect option for that. With the Senators, he primarily played on the wing for Tim Stützle while taking the majority of the faceoffs for that line. The theoretical ideology with a Giroux signing for the Devils would be similar — put him on the wing of Jack Hughes, who struggles in the dot, and have Giroux take the faceoffs before sliding back onto the wing during the flow of play.
This has been Giroux’s role in all three years in Ottawa, and he’s found a great amount of success in the past three years there. This past season was his worst production-wise, with 50 points — 15 goals and 35 assists — in 81 games. Prior to that, he’d potted 64 (21 goals, 43 assists) in 2023-24 and 79 (35 goals, 44 assists) in 2022-23. He played 82 games in both of those seasons — the Hockey Gods know the Devils are in dire need of some longevity.
I could see where the downtrend in production is a bit worrisome, but 1) I do think he would be in a more sheltered role in New Jersey, playing alongside J. Hughes and Jesper Bratt while Nico Hischier’s draws the difficult defensive matchups, instead of Giroux having to do both, 2) J. Hughes is outright more talented than Stützle, no disrespect to the latter there, and Bratt is more talented than the rotating cast of players Ottawa had playing with them, and 3) 50 points is still well-worth the projected $3.25 million, especially for a player with the versatility Giroux has.
Offensive Play
Giroux, despite having scored 20 or more goals in 11 of the 15 seasons he’s played more than 50 games, has always been more of a playmaker than a shooter. That isn’t to say he can’t score — his career shooting percentage is 11.5% and he has scored more goals than expected1 in every season dating back to 2016-17 — but he certainly profiles as more of a facilitator.
This comes as no surprise considering his long-standing profile as one of the smartest players in the NHL. Giroux’s IQ has always been astronomical, seemingly having eyes in the back of his head and being steps ahead of everyone else on the ice. It’s a driving factor in why, at 37, he continues to be a productive member of his team’s top line. According to AllThreeZones, Giroux is one of the most productive players in the league in terms of shot assists, or passes directly leading to shot attempts. He is able to identify the right target for his passes better than the vast majority of NHLers, and with shooting the puck being one thing the Devils need more of, having a player who excels at finding open men would be an asset.
Even though he’s more of a facilitator than a shooter, there are few players in the NHL better at finding open space off the cycle for a one-timer opportunity than Giroux. To me, that’s the most dangerous shot he has in his arsenal. His shot speed off of one-timers is electric (he ranked in the 90th percentile for shot speed in 2024-25, at 92.52 mph), and he has pinpoint accuracy. With both J. Hughes and Bratt being generally more comfortable with wrist and snap shots than one-timers, adding another type of shot for defenders and goalies to be aware of would also pose a dangerous addition to the offense.
Whereas Giroux used to be a dual threat in terms of contributing both off the cycle and off the rush, he has lost some foot speed with age and now proves to be a more effective player off the cycle than in transition. This isn’t to say he can’t contribute off the rush, but it isn’t the forte of his game anymore. He just isn’t as explosive as he used to be, now ranking below the 50th percentile for speed bursts of 20+ mph.
He isn’t one for transitional play with the puck on his stick — Giroux now prefers to be more of the second-fiddle or third man into the zone — but is generally effective at keeping possession of the puck through the neutral zone and extending possessions while operating in the cycle. As he would hypothetically be playing with J. Hughes and Bratt, two of the most effective and puck-dominant transition players in the league, this is of no concern to me in regards to my perception of acquiring Giroux.
Defensive Play
Giroux would also be a solid enough two-way player to provide a positive impact on the defensive front for the Devils, were they to pursue him on July 1. His high IQ bleeds into his defensive game as well, where he positions himself smartly, pushes play to the perimeter, and is an effective puck retriever when engaged in board battles and the like.
Because he’s such a heady player, he knows where to put the puck once he does retrieve it, either sending it smartly to a teammate in open space or carrying the puck out of the zone himself. Giroux rarely messes up zone exits once he gets solidified possession, but can be prone to turning the puck over immediately after retrieving it at times.
Giroux plays on the penalty kill, though I think that’s more due to the stigma around him than actual aptitude in doing so. If it were up to me, he would steer clear of PK duties unless absolutely necessary and occupy a slot on the second power-play unit.
Overall, Giroux is one of the more intriguing options to me as far as free agent centers go. With the Devils needing to eke out any value in contracts as they possibly can, a one-year deal in the $3-3.5 million range for the veteran would be stellar value. He would provide the team with more offensive juice in the top six at team-friendly value, can play center if need be, and, if the Devils correctly decide to move on from Ondrej Palat, would provide an extra layer of veteran leadership with a proven track record in the playoffs. Sign me up for all of that.
In more technical terms, Giroux has outproduced his individual expected goals (ixG) in every season since 2016-17. ixG is a metric that measures the number of goals one is expected to score based on their own shots. For example, in 2020-21, Giroux scored a total of 16 goals despite his shots only garnering an expected 12.16. From that, you can say that Giroux scored 3.84 more goals than expected.
Looks like a good idea, but do we really think Giroux moves from his hometown team, that made the playoffs and is on the rise? And if he did, he picks the Devils, who he hated for years when in Philly, over other possibly more ready contenders like Dallas, Florida, Vegas, Winnipeg, Washington, Carolina, etc. I would like to be wrong, but it's it's long shot
Like this idea a lot