Casey, Nemec, Cholowski -- Who Should the Devils Start?
The Devils' sixth defenseman slot is completely up for grabs, but who should it belong to?
There’s been a pretty consistent revolving door for the Devils’ sixth defenseman spot since Dougie Hamilton went down with a (presumably) season-ending injury. That revolving door has been occupied by three players — Seamus Casey, Simon Nemec, and Dennis Cholowski.
None of them have been particularly good.
With the playoffs starting shortly — and the Devils a near sure-shot to be entrants into the postseason barring a cataclysmic collapse and a team outside the playoff picture winning out — they do have some thinking to do on who to give runway prior to the first round.
Perhaps Hamilton has been readying himself for a Game 1 appearance, but that seems unlikely at this point, in my opinion. At the very least, the Devils should be making sure that one of them is prepared for postseason action in the (likely) case Hamilton isn’t ready.
What’s the Difference?
Before making the decision on who to pick, it’s important to highlight the statistical profiles of the players in question. Interestingly enough, all three of them are pretty comparable.
Seamus Casey
I mentioned this in a brief thread on Twitter1 yesterday, but I think the point totals are masking a lot of the generally abysmal play Casey has shown this season. The skillset is apparent and tantalizing — his skating, passing, and vision are so abundantly clear by the eye-test and there’s no doubt in my mind that he’s going to be an excellent offensive defenseman in due time — but there are some legitimate reservations I have about his game, particularly on the defensive front.
Casey has been largely unable to exit the defensive zone this season. When he is given the right opportunities and deployment, he can be truly deadly, but unless Sheldon Keefe gives him the most optimal deployment you’ve ever seen, chances are the Devils are going to bleed chances with Casey on the ice.
On a per-60 basis, with Casey on the ice, the Devils are surrendering 73.44 shot attempts per hour (CA/60). They’re also allowing 32.87 shots on goal per hour (SA/60), 34.92 scoring chances against per hour (SCA/60), 13.87 high-danger scoring chances against per hour (HDCA/60), and 3.29 expected goals against per hour (xGA/60). Those… well, they’re not good.
On the flipside, because he’s hemmed in so much, regardless of the offensive eye-test aptitude, the statistics are ugly. With Casey on the ice, the Devils are generating just 48.79 shot attempts per hour (CF/60), 23.62 shots on goal per hour (SF/60), 23.62 scoring chances per hour (SCF/60), 7.19 high-danger scoring chances per hour (HDCF/60), and 1.96 expected goals for per hour (xGF/60). If you compare the two — offense and defense — you’ll note that the highest share of control the Devils have is 41.82%: the percentage of shots on the ice when Casey is actively skating. Again, not good.
Casey’s other shares? His expected goal share (xGF%) is 37.33%. His shot attempt share (CF%) is 39.92%. His scoring chance share (SCF%) is 40.35%. Finally, his high-danger chance share (HDCF%) is 34.15%.
Woof.
Like I said, the points and goals are drool-worthy so far. But the narrative around his play would be completely shifted if he weren’t literally the luckiest player in the league this season. For one, he himself is shooting 44.44% — that’s unsustainable. His team, when he’s on the ice at 5v5, is shooting 15.22% — that’s unsustainable. His goaltenders are saving 98.44% of the shots they’ve seen — that’s unsustainable. If any of those stats were remotely earthly, the stigma around Casey and his play would be completely different.
Simon Nemec
Next up is Nemec, who has been similarly atrocious under the hood. The narrative surrounding the former second-overall pick is the right one, in that fans are clamoring for him to be out of the lineup. Still, there is and has been a general overreaction about just how awful he’s been — his statistical profile outside of the point totals is nearly identical to Casey’s. The latter has been touted as the messiah of the team, whereas Nemec has been dragged through the mud.
As I said in the pipeline breakdown series (where I ranked Nemec as the Devils’ best prospect), I think this boils down to a fundamental misunderstanding of how he plays the game. He maintains his calmness and collection no matter the circumstances, which certainly gives the impression that he isn’t trying. That couldn’t be farther from the truth, though, and he gives 100% effort on every play he makes.
Regardless, the stats are ugly, and he hasn’t had the production to compensate for it like Casey has.
The Devils are allowing 66.11 shot attempts per hour with Nemec on the ice, as well as 32.77 shots on goal, 30.12 scoring chances, 13.07 high-danger scoring chances, and 3.35 xG.
Offensively, they’re generating 48.3 shot attempts per 60, as well as 22.54 shots on goal, 21.59 scoring chances, 8.15 high-danger scoring chances, and 1.94 xG.
As I said, he and Casey are practically identical from a statistical standpoint, minus the point totals. Quite an interesting narrative, to be honest.
Dennis Cholowski
Last on the list is Cholowski, who has been undoubtedly the most boring of the three. The Devils acquired him at the trade deadline in exchange for minor-league forward Adam Beckman. Flash forward to today, and I think that trade was a mistake (Beckman could be someone and was one of Utica’s best forwards this season), but at the time, it was a reasonable move. Cholowski’s shares with the New York Islanders were actually quite solid — his xGF% and HDCF% were both above 50%, and the rest of his metrics were somewhat close to that.
As a Devil, though, things haven’t gone so smoothly. Cholowski largely looks like a fish out of water when he’s on the ice, making ill-advised plays and mistakes like nobody’s business. He’s quickly fallen out of fans’ graces as a result.
He’s been similarly horrid to Nemec and Casey, though in a bit of a different way. Pretty much nothing happens while Cholowski is on the ice in either direction, but the offensive numbers are so dire that it drags his shares way, way down. For example, while Casey and Nemec both sport xGA/60s of well into the 3s, Cholowski’s is 2.19. In a vacuum, that tells the story of a legitimately good defensive defenseman over the course of a full season. On the contrary, though, his xGF/60 is a godawful 1.31, handily the worst on the team and ruining any hopes he had of being considered a valuable addition to the team. This has given him an xGF% of 37.48% — right there with Nemec and Casey.
So… What’s the Verdict?
There’s really no easy way to answer this question, but I’ll try my best with a quick pro/con list:
Seamus Casey — Pros: Offensive instincts, eye-test; Cons: defensive zone play, inflated counting statistics; likely due for point regression
Simon Nemec — Pros: Better defensively than Casey (probably), playstyle more suited for postseason, was on the up-and-up before getting benched for Casey last game; Cons: still has not been good, has brain lapses that could be preyed on
Dennis Cholowski — Pros: most low-event player on the list, most NHL experience; Cons: still has not been good, black hole offensively
If it were up to me, I’d probably give Nemec the most runway. He was finding his game before yesterday’s matinee, and he could use it to build toward a solid enough foundation to play in the postseason. Casey would probably be last on my list.
I apologize to my Bluesky readers, I promise I’ll be better about posting there.