3 Adjustments the Devils Should Make in Game 2
There are a few things the Devils can do to better their chances against the Hurricanes from hereon out.
Alright. The nerves are shaken out now.
Game One of the Devils’ Round One matchup against the Carolina Hurricanes was, by many measures, a disappointment, even for a team with generally low expectations in the series. Excluding the third period, where score effects had more of a say in the flow of the game than actual play itself, the Devils were outshot 38-13, out-attempted 64-32, out-chanced 27-16, out high-danger chanced 16-4, out-xG’d 3.64-1.25, and outscored 3-1.
Not great, Bob.
The third period was better, though, as I mentioned, score effects had more to do with that than anything. That likely made the Devils' end-of-game stat lines much more favorable than they really deserved. The third period also saw some minute adjustments to the lines, which, too, helped.
More adjustments will need to be made if the Devils want to truly make life difficult for the Hurricanes in this series, let alone if they want to claim victory.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at a few adjustments the Devils can make — both in their lines and in their gameplay — to improve their chances against Carolina:
1. Isolate Hischier, Bratt, and Meier
Though I’ve held the ideology that Hischier and Bratt should have been split up from the get-go, the credit here really goes to CJ Turturo (@CJTDevil on Twitter and Bluesky). I generally excluded Meier from that trio, and he’s right in the sense that they should all have their own lines, apart from each other.
The idea here is that with all three players split into separate lines, the Devils have the best individual on the ice at any given time, at least most of the time.
With the exception of Sebastian Aho, I don’t think there’s a real argument for any individual on the Hurricanes to be touted as “better” than any of Hischier, Bratt, or Meier. Even Aho is a debate for any of them. As good as, sure, but I really don’t think there’s an argument for better.
The way the Devils are going to get by offensively in this series is via individual effort — systematically, on a team level, the Devils are simply outmatched. To be fair, most teams would be (perhaps Colorado, Tampa Bay, and Florida are the exceptions), but the point stands. Their depth is lacking, especially if Cody Glass is out for any sort of time (which seems likely). As such, they’re going to need to rely on what I’ll call the “Big Three” more heavily.
Think of it this way — Jordan Staal’s line and Jaccob Slavin’s pairing primarily matched up against Hischier and Bratt when they were on the ice together. Staal, Slavin, and their lines/pair were able to largely neutralize those two, resulting in the Devils generating just 0.14 xG in the five minutes Hischier and Bratt were out there together at 5v5 and posting an expected goal share (xGF%) of 40.86%.
When they were on separate lines, though, they both had much, much better results. Hischier was given new linemates in Meier and Palat in the third period, and they put up 0.38 xG in just over two minutes and had an xGF% of 94.85%. Bratt, meanwhile, was put with Dawson Mercer and Erik Haula, and the three of them produced 0.17 xG in 3:54 together and sported an xGF% of 95.51%. Prior to the third period, Meier was put with Mercer and Haula, and those three put up 0.31 xG and an xGF% of 62.74% in 6:22 together.
If you do some light math, you’ll quickly see that the results when the players are separate are better across the board — the Devils are generating more xG per hour with them isolated than with them together and are largely controlling the xG shares as well. With all three players isolated from each other, Rod Brind’Amour can’t really pick and choose who to send Staal and Slavin against, and it gives the Devils a better opportunity to exploit weaker defensive players despite the systemic mismatch.
They could, and should, execute something like this:
Ondrej Palat — Nico Hischier — Stefan Noesen
Jesper Bratt — Dawson Mercer — Daniel Sprong
Paul Cotter — Erik Haula — Timo Meier
Or, if Cody Glass somehow doesn’t miss any time:
Ondrej Palat — Nico Hischier — Stefan Noesen
Erik Haula — Dawson Mercer — Jesper Bratt
Paul Cotter — Cody Glass — Timo Meier
This gives the Devils three legitimately threatening lines by virtue of having one elite player who is capable of driving play on each line. Sticking Hischier with Palat and Noesen probably neuters some of their offensive capabilities, but if Playoff Palat decides to show up, that’s less of a concern. Bratt - Mercer - Sprong has the opportunity to punish the Hurricanes with skill and speed, while Haula - Mercer - Bratt is already proven to be effective. Meier’s lines are both heavy and skilled, though I’d prefer to keep Haula on the wing as opposed to down the middle.
Splitting the Big Three up is simply a must, in my opinion.
2. Shelter Dillon & Hamilton More
For all intents and purposes, the Devils’ defense corps generally did a pretty good job against the Hurricanes in Game One despite all appearances. Luke Hughes and Brett Pesce played just about 12 minutes together at 5v5 and held an xGF% of 58.26%. The Devils held an 8-4 scoring chance advantage with them on the ice. Johnathan Kovacevic and Brian Dumoulin logged 11:40 as a pairing at 5v5, and generally dominated the Hurricanes. They held the Canes to just 0.19 xGA while being on the ice for 0.51 xGF, giving them an impressive xGF% of 72.66%. Both the Hughes-Pesce and Kovacevic-Dumoulin pairings started off the vast majority of the time in the defensive zone, and still were able to play extremely well.
The issue in the defense corps lay in the Brenden Dillon - Dougie Hamilton pairing. Prior to Dillon’s injury, the two got decimated by the aggressive Hurricanes forecheck, allowing a ridiculous 1.13 xGA in just 6:36 together at 5v5. Almost equally as unimpressive was their atrocious 0.04 xGF in that time — these two metrics combine to give that pairing a hilariously bad 4.37% xGF%. I mean, wow.
My eye test blamed Dillon far more for this than Hamilton, as I noticed several times that Dillon was unable to get out of the zone or take any sort of pressure from the forecheckers. Hamilton wasn’t great either, to be sure, but I felt as though he was less of the problem.
The solution? Shelter, shelter, shelter.
With the other two pairings already taking the lion’s share of the starts from the defensive zone, why not just further exacerbate that? They proved they can handle it. Dillon and Hamilton proved that they can’t — or at least couldn’t in Game One — keep up with the style of hockey that Carolina plays, so insulate them from having to deal with it altogether.
Don’t just insulate their zone starts, either — insulate who they’re starting with in terms of forwards, too. They should be playing with the Devils’ most offensively inclined players whenever they can be. If the Devils err on the side of splitting up all three of their star forwards (which they should), pair Dillon and Hamilton with whichever line is performing the best in the game or, when the Devils have last change, against the line that is perceived as the “weakest” defensively. For now, it’s the only way to prevent them from being the bane of the Devils’ defense.
3. Put Noesen Back on PP1
Please, oh please, just put Stefan Noesen back on the first power-play unit. It feels like I’ve been clamoring for this since Jack Hughes went down with injury and Noesen’s PP1 spot was hijacked by Dawson Mercer in the name of zone entries.
For whatever reason, the Devils seem to have the ideology that they need all five players to be able to enter the zone. Granted, Mercer has been operating as the second carry-in option next to Bratt, but the point stands that they have multiple players capable of being that guy. Both Hischier and Meier, for example, are more than able to carry that “burden.”
Noesen, meanwhile, has been demoted to the second unit despite being a driving force behind what made their power play so successful at the beginning of the season. It seems that, more than ever, dirty goals are going to be the way the Devils get to the Hurricanes, and let’s face it: Noesen is miles better at netfront play than Mercer, and there really isn’t any argument that says the opposite.
Let’s play a quick game: take a look at the two heatmaps below. One is the isolated impact of Mercer on the power play, and one is Noesen’s. Take a wild guess as to which one is which.
Right. In summation, Mercer is providing negative value to the Devils’ power play, whereas Noesen is responsible for a 7% increase in offense on the man advantage. The heatmaps show exactly how valuable they both are at the netfront, and it’s night and day between the two.
The Devils, in Game One, went 0-2 on the power play and generated just 0.26 xG, nearly giving up a short-handed goal in the process. That is simply unacceptable in a playoff environment — it doesn’t matter if Carolina’s penalty kill is the best in the league. The Devils’ power play is also the best in the league.1
The Devils need more chaos in front of the net when they’re up a man. No player on the team is better than Noesen at doing so. Hell, there aren’t many players in the league better at doing so. They need to get back to what made their power play so deadly in the first place.
So, there you have it: three things the Devils could and should do if they want to improve their chances at beating the Hurricanes in a single game, let alone in the series. I would undoubtedly argue that any of these three moves would be a boon to their odds — making all three changes would make them infinitely more dangerous in my opinion.
Game Two is tonight at 6 PM EST. Let’s go, Devils.
Not by percentage, by impact. As I’ve said before, the statistical profile of this Devils power play is inarguably the greatest of all time. There’s no excuse to be shut down as hard as they were in Game One.