What Exactly Has Been Going On With the Devils Since the Holiday Break?
The New Jersey Devils have sported a subpar 7-9-3 record, comfortably in the bottom-10 of the league in that span. Why exactly have they been so bad?
Last night, the Devils played perhaps the worst game of hockey I have had the pleasure of watching in the previous five years. The Vegas Golden Knights outright dominated the Devils to the tune of a 40-15 shot share (SF%), 37-18 scoring chance share (SCF%), 16-3 high-danger chance share (HDCF%), and a 3.93-1.44 expected goals share (xGF%).
The Devils’ highest xGF% in a period yesterday was 29.71%. The only period in which they generated a high-danger chance was the second. Their xGF% of 26.81% on the night was the worst performance in that regard since 2019.
By all accounts, it was an embarrassment, and the cherry on top of a rough stretch of hockey leading into the Four Nations tournament.
Prior to the holiday break, the Devils were rolling. They broke a defensive record for most consecutive games allowing 20 or fewer shots, consistently outperformed their opponents, and looked the part of a true Stanley Cup contending team.
So… what gives? I did some digging, and there are some concerning trends since the Devils resumed play on December 27th.
5v5 xG Differential In the Gutter
Before the holiday break, there wasn’t a single stretch of hockey in which the Devils lost the xG battle. After the break, there has been a complete flip, both offensively and defensively. Below is a chart showing expected goals for per 60 (xGF/60) and expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60), with a line indicating the resumption of play on December 27th.
Offensive Struggles
In the 37 games that the Devils played pre-Christmas, they were averaging the second-most 5v5 xGF/60 at a more-than-solid 2.8. The only team with a better output than that was the Carolina Hurricanes at 3.04. They ranked sixth-best in scoring chances per 60 minutes and fourth-best in high-danger chances per 60 minutes. Their offensive output was a huge reason why they had the fourth-best point percentage in the entire league at that point.
In the 19 games since, they rank 24th in xGF/60, managing to generate just 2.34 expected goals per hour in this time. They’re still a top-ten team in terms of scoring chances, but they’ve dropped all the way to 21st in high-danger chances per hour, with a massive difference of 11.85 to 9.89. They’re 30th in 5v5 shots per 60 minutes, not even being able to muster 25 a game since 12/27.
Across the board, every single player on the team has had a deficit in terms of xGF/60 before and after the break — there literally isn’t a single one who has produced more expected goals per hour in the last 19 games than they did in the previous 37. Some of the stars — predominantly Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt — have struggled in particular. Prior to the break, their respective xGF/60 numbers were excellent, at 3.20 and 3.18. Post-December 27, they’ve dipped all the way down to 2.53 and 2.57.
The most jarring difference, though, has been seen in Luke Hughes, who had the second-highest xGF/60 output on the team behind Timo Meier with 3.26. He’s dropped over a full expected goal per hour, all the way down to 2.22. He, in particular, has been fighting it.
Team Defense
The defensive numbers have been a bit less concerning, but still a problem. Pre-holiday break, the Devils were the fifth-best team in terms of allowing xGA/60 in the NHL. Some of this can be attributed to the ridiculous defensive stretch they had immediately preceding the break, but by and large, they had been extremely effective from a defensive standpoint in the first 40-or-so percent of the season. They were top-five in limiting scoring chances and top-ten in limiting high-danger chances.
Post break, they’ve allowed the 12th-most xGA/60 — more than 0.3 more per hour, which might sound insignificant but is relatively harrowing. They’re allowing nearly two more scoring chances per hour.
The fault here lies more in individuals, in my opinion. Luke has been bad, allowing 2.89 xGA/60 minutes since the break as opposed to the sub-2.00 xGA/60 he was cruising along at. Johnathan Kovacevic has been allowing nearly a full xG more than he was pre-break, too. They’ve looked noticeably worse in their own ends, handling the pucks like a grenade and fumbling on breakouts. Their sticks have been worse at blocking passing lanes and their decision-making has been lackluster to boot. This holds true for many others, too — Brett Pesce, Nico Hischier, Bratt, Ondrej Palat, Dawson Mercer; you name them, and they’ve probably been considerably worse in this regard.
Finishing Somehow Worsened
As if the 5v5 metrics weren’t concerning in and of themselves, the team as a whole has also been riding a stretch of tough shooting luck in the 19 games they’ve played since the Holiday Break came to an end.
I compiled a list of the 5v5 data and put it in the table below. The first column, titled 12/23, is each individual forward’s finishing numbers (Goals minus individual expected goals) at the time of the four-day break. The second column, titled 2/6, details their current finishing metrics. The following two columns are the differences between the two numbers and the players’ individual shooting percentages in this span. The forwards are sorted by TOI per game.
As you can see above, while six of the 13 listed forwards increased their finishing above expected, seven players have been in the negative and the forward group (theoretically) should have scored at least four more goals than they have over this stretch at 5v5.
In particular, Meier and Stefan Noesen have struggled immensely to put home the chances they have generated. Timo’s struggle in this regard has completely matched the eye test — he’s hit a ton of posts and goalies look like prime Dominik Hasek on the grade-A chances of his that have hit the net.
Noesen’s differential is what jumps out to me; not just because it’s the worst differential on the team in this span, but because there hasn’t been a narrative on any platform about his finishing struggles. It seems like all eyes are on Timo in this regard but Noesen, statistically speaking, has been worse. He hasn’t scored a single 5v5 goal in the last 19 games.
In fact, he’s one of five Devils forwards (of the 13 that have played a meaningful amount of time) who haven’t scored a single 5v5 goal since the break. Erik Haula, Bastian, Curtis Lazar, and Justin Dowling round out the rest of that list. And sure, there’s an argument that they’re bottom-sixers who are (generally speaking) pluses on defense, but really, who cares? Scoring zero goals in 19 games is outright shameful.
So… What’s the Solution?
Simply put, overcompensation.
GM Tom Fitzgerald has a bit of a track record of over-adjusting for perceived issues. He pivoted to doling out a nasty contract to Ondrej Palat when he missed out on Johnny Gaudreau. After some fans clamored for more grit in the lineup and less emphasis on skill, he added Brendan Dillon, Paul Cotter, and Johnathan Kovacevic and extended Kurtis MacDermid to a brain-melting three-year contract.
Cotter has skill and Kovacevic has been excellent defensively, but the point still stands that Fitzgerald has proven a pattern of overadjustment.
That same philosophy should apply here, too.
The Devils need to be aggressive in the trade market. Their biggest needs are a plus-finishing winger to add to the top six and a bottom-six playdriver or two.
Easier said than done, I know.
But there are names out there who have become available. Rickard Rakell from the Penguins. Oliver Bjorkstrand over in Seattle. Brock Nelson just a short car ride away. I wouldn’t hesitate to send out a second-round pick and higher-end prospect (Seamus Casey, anyone?) for any of those guys.
Bottom-six additions are much easier to come by and are readily available every year. This season is no different. Ryan Donato. Justin Brazeau. Jake Evans. Nick Bjugstad. Brayden Schenn. Yanni Gourde. Gustav Nyquist. Ryan Strome. These are guys who are known to be out there and would provide an immediate spark to the bottom six in terms of offensive output (except for Gourde, who will be out until approximately the trade deadline, but the point still stands).
They overcompensated this off-season in all the wrong ways. There really is no such thing as too much offense, especially when the blue line is as solid for the Devils as it has been and the coach is one who prioritizes two-way play.
On top of that, the Devils are a win-now team. Their core is young but polished, Jack and Bratt are on two of the league’s very best deals value-wise (especially with the rising cap), their goaltending has been superb for once, their defense has been mostly rock-solid, and they have a coach whose system has shown that it can draw the best of the team’s players on both sides of the ice. Now is the time to make moves, to sacrifice the future to win a Stanley Cup. The pieces they need are already contributing on a nightly basis.
I’m not saying to make a panic move — those are often how teams get killed by one-sided deals. The issues with the team have been apparent for a while now, though, and it’s time to fix them.