The Need for a Competent Fourth-Line Center
None of the options the Devils have employed at 4C have been of any use this season.
The Devils seemingly need a few things to shore up their roster after this season exposed them for their weak scoring and depth — a top-six scoring winger, middle-six wingers, bottom-six competency, some bubble wrap, and competence in the fourth-line center position.
Whereas they’ve solved their third-line center issue with the savvy addition of Cody Glass, who has been excellent and, dare I say, a potential Michael McLeod replacement, the Devils have a glaring need down the middle on the fourth line. Curtis Lazar and Justing Dowling simply have not cut it this season.
On Curtis Lazar and Justin Dowling
Neither Lazar nor Dowling have been particularly useful this season, so let’s hone in on exactly what they do (and don’t) do for the team.
Let’s start with Lazar, who has been inarguably the worst forward to regularly appear in the lineup.
He’s played 45 games this season, being a staple in the lineup in every game he has been healthy in. I understand why — he was actually quite good last season in the fourth-line role — but it seems as though age and injuries have finally caught up to him.
The Devils’ offense dies when he’s on the ice, which, to be fair, is the case for many a fourth-liner, but I’m not quite sure I’ve seen an on-ice impact as atrocious across the board from an offensive standpoint as Lazar’s. The only spots in which the Devils are shooting more than average are on the perimeter, and even then, they’re few and far between:
The bottom of the right circle is the only area of the ice worth a damn that the Devils are shooting at from a higher-than-average clip, and even then, it’s a pretty low-danger zone. The fact that they’re generating 28% fewer-than-league-average expected goals per 60 minutes (xGF/60) with Lazar on the ice is abysmal, unacceptable by all measures, and needs to change if the Devils want to be a successful team next season.
Right now, Micah Blake McCurdy of HockeyViz has Lazar as a low-end third-liner. His isolated impact is apparently less drastic than the results the Devils are accruing while he’s on the ice. This is the one time you’ll see me vehemently disagree with what the numbers are telling me, though. I can’t think of a single thing Lazar has done right this season outside of saving that goal against the Ottawa Senators. Past that, offense has notably died on his stick and he hasn’t really done anything defensively, either.
The Devils’ defense has allowed 9% more xGA/60 than league average with Lazar on the ice, too. When in conjunction with his abysmal offensive numbers, his expected goal share (xGF%) of 41.29% on the season makes complete sense.
Dowling hasn’t been much better, either. His xGF% is above 50% (barely), but I haven’t found what he’s done to be particularly impressive, or even better than what Lazar has put out there.
With Dowling out there, the Devils are, unsurprisingly, generating 16% fewer xGF/60 than league average. The areas of the ice where the Devils are generating more than average shot volume are practically the same as what they are with Lazar — largely perimeter shots with little-to-no danger to them. On the defensive front, things are better when Dowling is on the ice. They’re protecting the front of the net extremely well and are performing at a 13% better-than-league-average clip as a whole at preventing xGA/60.
As per HockeyViz, though, Dowling has been the worst player on the team in terms of sG, his all-encompassing stat that takes into account on-ice impacts, finishing, penalties, special teams, and pretty much anything else you can think of. He’s not quite below replacement, but he is, according to the metric, a really bad fourth-liner.
His isolated impact is the worst on the team, bar none. He is providing nothing on offense, with his impact alone accounting for a 12% decrease in offense. Defensively, he has been fine, providing the team with a 3% better-than-league-average boost in terms of xG suppression.
The Solution is in Free Agency
As much as the Devils made a vague attempt at bolstering their center depth within the organization by trading for Marc McLaughlin at the deadline, he isn’t — and never was — the solution. They’re likely not signing Artem Shlaine, either. Samu Salminen and Matyas Melovský aren’t ready for NHL action next season, and they’re not going to draft an NHL-ready center in 2025.
They could find a solution via trade, but I find that unlikely. There are a couple of options that are net pluses on both ends of the ice and have been for a while. If I were GMing the Devils, I’d probably splurge a bit getting Pius Suter, who has eclipsed the 20-goal mark for the first time in his career and has had excellent on-ice impacts for a while now. If they’re going for the cheaper route, Nick Bjugstad would be my bet. He’s huge, which we all know will work well for Tom Fitzgerald, has scored more than 40 points in a season before, and has sported great on-ice impacts as well.
Something needs to give for the fourth line, though, particularly at the center position. Lazar and Dowling cannot continue to be contributing for them down the middle if they have legitimate Stanley Cup aspirations.
JP, time machine question. Cooley or Wright instead of Nemec, even if Nemec becomes a quality defender?