The Ever-Convincing Argument For Keeping Dougie Hamilton

There has long been a legitimate argument for keeping $9 million AAV defenseman Dougie Hamilton around past this season, but he has continued adding to his case over the course of 2025-26.

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At several points this season, and even prior to the 2025-26 campaign beginning, $9 million AAV defenseman Dougie Hamilton has been the subject of trade talks. This was especially magnified in early January, when No. 7 was benched despite being one of the Devils’ most solid defensemen at the time. The perception then was that he was a shell of his former self, but the reality is he was just a product of poor deployment and puck luck and the on-ice product was still that of a top-four defenseman.

Hamilton’s agent, JP Barry, and then-GM Tom Fitzgerald had a heated back-and-forth on social media, with Barry blasting the team for making their decision to try and force his client into asking to be moved out of New Jersey. Fitzgerald denied the notion, but it was clear that the relationship had taken a hit.

Well, Fitzgerald is gone now, so maybe some repairing has already been done.

If it has, to me, it should be a priority to keep Hamilton in the red and black. I understand the idea behind shedding that $9 million salary — that’s a lot of money that can be used elsewhere in the lineup — but the on-ice value of him this season has been perpetually and criminally underrated.

With that, let’s deep-dive why keeping Hamilton would be an excellent idea for the Devils moving forward, rather than trading him and his lofty salary away:

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The reality is, Dougie profiles quite well in terms of underlying numbers, even when compared to top defensemen around the league.

I’ve always thought that the eye-test hate for No. 7 has been overblown to no end. Yes, in the past he has been somewhat of a defensive liability. Yes, his mistakes often look lazy because he isn’t a great skater for his size and can’t recover superbly well. Yes, his production pre-benching wasn’t what you want from a player getting paid $9 million.

However, the truth is that he has genuinely leveled up defensively this season. The problem that I have with the eye test-exclusive crowd is that prior reputation and bias seems to supersede what is actually happening on the ice. From the start of the 2025-26 season, it was clear that Hamilton was playing a different style of hockey than what he was used to, heavily prioritizing bettering his in-zone defense and ability to defend the rush. To me, that showed up in the eye test.

Analytically, that claim is backed up. According to Evolving-Hockey, last season, Hamilton ranked in the 11th percentile for defensive impact, being a slight plus while shorthanded but an undeniable defensive liability at even strength. This season, he’s all the way up to the 88th percentile, still touting the high-end shorthanded defense but genuinely playing great defensive hockey at even strength as well:

via Evolving-Hockey

These player cards do not capture individual, isolated impact on either side of the puck, but it is important to note that there has been significant development there as well. According to HockeyViz, in 2024-25, Hamilton’s isolated defensive impact at 5v5 resulted in 12% more expected goals per 60 minutes (xGA/60) being allowed by the Devils than the average defenseman, a well-below average mark that offset his typical, well-above-average offensive impact. This season, though, Hamilton has improved to just about bang-average — Dougie is solely responsible for “adding” 0.03 xGA/60 to the Devils, a negligible difference from league average.

Of course, Dougie is still his typical self when it comes to the offensive side of things.

In that same HockeyViz model, Dougie is responsible for adding 0.35 expected goals for per hour (xGF/60) at 5v5 with his impact on the game, 14% better than league average. For comparison’s sake, that is better than the likes of Cale Makar (+3%), Evan Bouchard (+11%), Rasmus Dahlin (+12%), Lane Hutson (+13%), and Jake Sanderson (+10%), all of whom are (or have been) in or around the Norris Trophy conversation.

Interestingly, though, Evolving-Hockey’s player card above only has Hamilton in the 81st percentile for total offensive impact. Much of that is because of the putrid puck luck he has been subject to this season. Were the actual results to match the process and expected results, that percentile would find itself easily in the 90s.

According to Evolving-Hockey’s Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) model, one that isolates a player’s impact on different aspects of the game, Hamilton is the eighth-most positively influential defenseman in the NHL in terms of generating shot attempts. While that obviously isn’t the whole story, it’s a strong indication that he is still one of the best puck possession-oriented defensemen in the league.

The production, since he got benched, has been exactly what has been expected of him throughout his tenure in New Jersey as well. In the 32 games since, Hamilton has produced 25 points, an 82-game pace of 64 points. 17 of them have come at even strength. In the 40 games prior, he only had 10 total points.

For me, the reason behind the production is twofold — for one, his puck luck has been significantly better. Prior to getting benched, the Devils’ on-ice shooting percentage (oiSH%) was an abysmal 6.38%, second-worst on the team next to Jonas Siegenthaler (5.99%). Since, though, it’s all the way up to 13.35%. Some of that is simply positive regression hitting at the right time, but I also think some of it is due to his deployment.

Dougie was getting a heavy dosage of defensive deployment prior to his getting benched, with an offensive zone start percentage (OZS%) of just 41.71% at even strength. After the benching, his even-strength OZS% is up to 52.63%. Who would have guessed?

The overarching point there is that, with his typical deployment and typical finishing from his linemates, Dougie is still an extremely viable offensive defenseman. The problem prior to his getting benched was that his linemates were whiffing on their chances and his coach was deploying him in the heaviest defensive minutes on the team. That’s simply not Hamilton’s game, nor should it be — put an offensive defenseman in a position to succeed and he will do so.

Pairing that with the tangible and sizable improvements he has shown on the defensive side of the puck, and there is a $9 million AAV defenseman there.

More than anything else, we know the value of having puck-moving defensemen on a team aching for a Stanley Cup push, and it would be a major, major mistake to get rid of arguably the Devils’ best puck-mover. Instead, they should look to add a puck-mover or two in place of some of their grenade handlers and keep No. 7 on the books.

I certainly hope the next GM is as much of a believer in Hamilton’s skillset as I am.