The Devils Must Buy Out Ondrej Palat This Offseason
Ondrej Palat has been the Devils' worst player in 2024-25, bar-none. The Devils should respond with a buyout in the off-season.
Ah, the duality of man.
I wrote yesterday about how Timo Meier has gotten way, way too much flack for his secretly excellent play this season. Now, it’s time to venture to the other side of that, with Ondrej Palat.
I was opposed to the contract from the second it was signed. In principle, the move was made when it was revealed that Johnny Gaudreau would sign with the Columbus Blue Jackets instead of the Devils, whom many thought was his surefire destination. It was a disaster from the get-go.
A player whose two best seasons point-wise came in 2013-14 and 2014-15, a player who was already on the wrong side of 30, a player whose lack of foot speed and high skill didn’t mesh with the core, a player who had a history of missing games from injury, was given a five-year, $6 million AAV contract with a full no-move clause (NMC). Woof.
I understand, in concept, what GM Tom Fitzgerald was going for at the time. It was the right time to find a winger to complement Jack Hughes on the top line, and Palat proved that he could play with good players in his many seasons with Tampa Bay.
Even with that in mind, though, it was a dangerous contract handed out to a player who likely did not deserve the money that came his way, let alone with full no-movement added on until after he turned 36.
I also thought the contract would be fine for the first few seasons, and that Palat’s fall-off wouldn't be extraordinarily drastic. After all, his style of play boils down to being able to play off of competent teammates, and the Devils certainly have those.
The first two years of his contract made me eat my words and look like an idiot. After suffering a freak injury in his first season in New Jersey, he legitimately looked better than he ever had in Tampa Bay, sporting an expected goals share (xGF%) of nearly 60% while providing that predictable Palat playoff performance that earned him his money. The following year, he was a bright spot on a Devils team that struggled with injuries, horrid goaltending, and unreasonable expectations set by a 13-game win streak and second-round playoff berth in the previous campaign. Once again, his under-the-hood numbers were quite good despite the lackluster production.
This season, he’s just been an anchor to whatever players he’s playing with.
The Underlying Metrics Behind Palat’s Struggles
On the season, there are only two players on the Devils who have played a meaningful amount of games (20+) and have a worse xGF% than Palat — Kurtis MacDermid and Curtis Lazar. MacDermid is (and has been) the most useless player on the team since he was acquired and provides precisely nothing on either end of the ice, and Lazar has struggled mightily since returning from a serious injury.
In fact, it’s the worst xGF% output of Palat’s career outside of his 14-game rookie season. He’s stayed above 50% in each of the last eleven seasons, including five seasons of 55%+ xGF% hockey.
He’s sporting the second-worst high-danger chance share (HDCF%) on the team, as well as the fourth-worst shot share (SF%). What’s worse is that he’s starting his shifts in the offensive zone more than 70% of the time, and the majority of his playing time has been alongside the Devils’ stars. He’s simply been unplayable.
According to Micah Blake McCurdy’s Synthetic Goals (sG) model, shown above, Palat has never played this poorly in his career and values him as an above-average fourth-line caliber player. The last time he played at a caliber this poor was his rookie season.
Teammates Better Off Without Him
As I said, Palat has truly been an anchor to whatever players he’s playing with, and that is evident by the with and without (WOWY) statistics for who he’s played with.
Let’s start with Palat’s most common teammates: Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt.
The trio have played nearly 500 minutes together, and when they’re all on the ice, the Devils have controlled 52.32% of the expected goals. They also have a scoring chance share (SCF%) of 56.29% and a HDCF% of 51.31%.
They’re providing 2.89 expected goals per 60 minutes (xGF/60), 33.49 scoring chances per hour (SCF/60), and 12.43 high-danger chances per hour (HDCF/60).
Respectable, right?
In the 175ish minutes that Jack and Bratt have played sans Palat, though, the results are drastically different. Their xGF% skyrockets all the way up to 64.29%. They’re producing nearly a full-xG more per hour (3.62 xGF/60). They’re generating three more scoring chances per hour.
Aside from the offensive metrics, they’re also significantly better defensively without Palat on the ice. With Palat, they’re allowing 2.63 expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60), and without him, they’re allowing just 2.01. They’re also allowing 4.71 fewer scoring chances against and 4.24 fewer high-danger chances per hour when he isn’t weighing them down.
This is happening across the board, too. In fact, while researching for this article, I stumbled upon perhaps the craziest statistic I will find this season:
Of the 24 skaters who have played with Palat this season for any time whatsoever, exactly two (2) had had better results with him on the ice versus without. The two players? Timo Meier, who he’s only spent 9:25 with at 5v5, and MacDermid, who he played 1:22 with. Everyone else has been worse off with Palat on the ice than without him, and that includes the likes of Daniil Misyul, Nathan Légaré, Justin Dowling, and even Shane Bowers.
The Only Viable Option is a Buyout
I would be utterly shocked if he waived his no-movement clause with the intention of the Devils shopping him. I would be equally as shocked if a team wanted him and his albatross contract if he even were to waive it. The only realistic option is a buyout. Buying out Palat would result in the following cap hits per season:
With the NHL salary cap projected to rise to $113.5 million in 2027-28, this buyout is honestly pretty meaningless from a cap-hit perspective. The extra $2.5 million in cap space that his buyout would provide could go toward an effective bottom-six player, which, considering he’s currently playing at a fourth-line level while making legitimately all of his teammates (except Meier) worse, is probably a better bet to provide actual value to the team.
Aging curves dictate that his play is only going to worsen with time. So the arguments that he “only has two more years after this one” or that the “rising cap makes his contract less detrimental” aren’t really in play here. $6 million is a heck of a lot more than $3.5 million or $2.5 million and the difference could be used to pump money into more useful bottom-six contributors or even an ELC or two (Arseni Gritsyuk, for one).
Quite frankly, I don’t care about his playoff pedigree, leadership qualities, or any other intangibles that Palat brings to the table. I don’t even care about his box score statistics. The fact is, he makes everyone on this team worse and gets paid $6 million a year doing so. His contract has been and always will be a glaring mistake on Fitzgerald’s resume, and the only way that he can even partially redeem it is by buying Palat out.