On Dougie Hamilton's Imminent Return and What It Means for the Devils
The New Jersey Devils are getting ready to welcome back their best offensive defenseman, just in time for Round 1.
In the past week or so, the New Jersey Devils have seen a few positive developments on the Dougie Hamilton front.
He began skating on his own, followed by skating with the team in yesterday’s morning skate. After the Devils’ 4-2 loss against the Penguins, head coach Sheldon Keefe said that the expectation is that Hamilton will return for the Devils for the postseason.
The importance of this development for Round One cannot be understated.
The Devils’ Right Side Will Be Locked Up
Finally, the circus show that has been the Devils’ 6th defenseman slot will no longer be in effect. I really can’t stress how important this is in and of itself, independent of how good Hamilton is.
All three of Seamus Casey, Simon Nemec, and Dennis Cholowski have expected goal shares (xGF%) of below 40%, meaning that the opposition has controlled north of 60% of the expected goals while any of those three are on the ice. That’s unacceptable for the regular season — I don’t even want to imagine how much any of those three would get eaten alive by a fierce and unrelenting Carolina Hurricanes forechecking system in Round 1.
Stylistically and experience-oriented, too, the Devils are simply so much better off with Hamilton in the lineup over any of those three. Casey’s size and general flightiness when pressured in the defensive zone would get exposed so drastically against Carolina. Nemec, well… he’s just been bad this season and probably isn’t ready for playoff action, either, even if his stylistic fit is better suited for a Hurricanes matchup than Casey’s. Cholowski just isn’t an NHL-caliber defenseman.
Hamilton, meanwhile, is generally calm and composed with the puck under pressure, knows the Hurricanes system, and has 66 games of playoff experience under his belt.
Dougie’s On-Ice Impacts are Excellent
At 5v5, there has been no defenseman more impactful for the Devils this season from an offensive standpoint than Dougie.
He has by far the highest expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) of any Devils’ defenseman, with the team producing 2.87 xGF/60 with him on the ice. Second place is Brenden Dillon, who has largely fed off of Hamilton in that regard and has an xGF/60 of 2.64.
Most other underlying statistics tell the same story, too. The Devils are producing more shot attempts per hour (CF/60) with Hamilton on the ice than any other defenseman, too, at 67.26. They’re also putting over three more shots on net per hour with him on the ice than anyone else, two scoring chances per hour, and more high-danger chances as well. There isn’t a single offensive category in which Dougie doesn’t lead on the Devils’ defense corps. His isolated impact is giving the Devils 15% more offense than league average:
As you’ll notice on the heat map, practically all of the offense is coming from the right side, exactly where Hamilton has an influence.
His Impact On Dillon
Hamilton’s impact on Dillon alone makes this move so worthwhile for the Devils. Really, Hamilton has been the only player Dillon has truly meshed with and has had positive results with for the Devils, and re-unlocking that gives New Jersey three competent, net-positive defense pairings, which is a must against a team as deep and threatening as Carolina.
Casey and Dillon have logged 42:24 together at 5v5, and their results have been abysmal. With them on the ice, the Devils are producing just 1.17 xGF/60. Their defensive numbers are solid, with an expected goals against per hour (xGA/60) of 1.52, but that doesn’t matter if they’re unable to do literally anything in the offensive zone. This has combined to give the pairing an xGF% of 43.51%.
With Nemec, Dillon has logged 131:00 of 5v5 time. Their results aren’t awful but are still a far cry from what you want to see. They have an xGF/60 of 2.28 and an xGA/60 of 2.52, giving them an xGF% of 47.49%. Again, not atrocious, but it's still very much subpar.
Next up is Cholowski, who Dillon has had the least success with. The two have played 42:46 together at 5v5, sporting an xGF/60 of just 1.58 while allowing an xGA/60 of 3.24. This unsurprisingly results in the worst xGF% of the bunch, at a godawful 32.80%.
With Hamilton, meanwhile, the two have formed a formidable pair that can hang with the best of them. They were together on a nightly basis until Hamilton went down with injury, logging a total of 711:07 together. Their defensive numbers are slightly below average, with the two allowing 2.77 xGA/60, but their offensive play is excellent, producing 3.08 xGF/60 in the meantime. Their xGF%, as a result, is 52.59%.
Giving Dillon, who has largely struggled this season in general, a competent partner who he has had success with this season in a large sample size will be a boon for the Devils in the postseason.
Power Play Efficionato
The Devils will also be getting arguably the league’s most effective power-play quarterback (from this season) back.
As good as Luke Hughes has been on the PP1 unit, the effect that Dougie has on the Devils’ man-advantage play is unparalleled. He presents as a shot threat from the point that largely does not exist otherwise — perhaps with the exception of Evan Bouchard in Edmonton. This pulls the defense toward him, opening up passing and shooting lanes for other players on the ice.
For reference, Dougie has an xGF/60 of 13.31 on the power play — by far the highest mark in the league (second-place Erik Karlsson is repping an xGF/60 of 11.01). Since Luke took over PP1 duties, Luke has sported an xGF/60 of 10.87 — still quite good, but just not the same.
As if Dougie’s xGF/60 wasn’t insane enough, he still poses as the second-best PP defenseman in xGAR despite having missed the last 16 games, solely trailing Cale Makar on the season.
I’m of the opinion that Hamilton should re-cement himself as the PP1 quarterback as soon as he re-enters the lineup. Again, as good as Luke has been, Hamilton truly has been the best PPQB in the NHL. That also inherently makes the second unit more dangerous, as they’ll have Luke quarterbacking it rather than some rotating door of Nemec, Casey, Cholowski, and Pesce.
The Devils will be getting back one of the league’s best offensive defensemen just in time for their Round 1 matchup against the Hurricanes. Considering the gravity of the change, there’s more reason than ever to be optimistic despite the generally harrowing thought of facing Carolina in the first round.