On Brett Pesce's Sturdiness in First Year with Devils
The 29-year-old has had quite a successful first season in New Jersey.
When I’d first heard that the Devils were heavily pursuing then-Carolina Hurricane defenseman Brett Pesce about a week before free agency opened up, I had a mixed bag of emotions. On one hand, that likely meant that the Devils would be sending John Marino away in a trade, but on the other, Pesce was a proven commodity and a solid two-way addition. The age, contract, and ceiling favored Marino, but the consistency and need at the time favored Pesce.
Flash forward to today, and I think it was the correct call — at least for now. Pesce, who leads the Devils’ defensemen in average time on ice per game (20:47) has taken his game up a notch in many ways since jumping ship to New Jersey. He’s largely the same player defensively but his offensive instincts have seemingly improved since playing alongside a more offensively gifted partner in Luke Hughes.
Without further ado, let’s deep-dive into Pesce’s first season as a Devil from an analytical standpoint:
Pesce’s Defensive Game Largely Unchanged
From my understanding of the situation, Pesce was brought into the team as a sort of reactionary measure to the Devils leaking zone entries and passes into the slot in 2023-24. Pesce had been one of the league’s best in both regards while having tough assignments in Carolina, so the natural reaction was to zero in on the free agent.
My eye test is telling me that he’s still excelling at slot pass prevention, and the data supports that as well:
As you can see, he’s killing it at both preventing rush slot passes and cycle rush passes — it’s pretty cool to see that that part of his game is still there and leaking into Hughes’ game as well. With that established, let’s talk about his zone denials, starting with last season’s microstats:
As you can see from the tracked data, Pesce was chart-breaking in both denials per 60 minutes and denial percentage, meaning that his aggressive play at defending the rush was paying dividends. He was subject to slightly-more-than-average zone entries against and performed quite admirably, stymying rush plays before they turned into legitimate chances.
One season later, the results are pretty similar:
He’s still defending the rush better than most, and that’s what he was brought in to do. This is especially important while playing alongside Luke Hughes, who is subject to the occasional bad pinch in the name of keeping possession of the puck. I would have to guess that Pesce’s veteran presence prospectively being alongside Hughes was a massive selling point, too.
Because of his aptitude at defending zone entries, teams have learned not to target him nearly as much:
Only 10 defensemen in the NHL have garnered fewer zone entry targets per 60 minutes.
The other parts of his defensive game have generally improved, according to the microstats. He still doesn’t touch the puck much in the defensive zone from a retrieval standpoint but is generally successful when he does retrieve it. He also seems to have improved massively in exiting the zone, which is another thing the Devils generally struggled with last season. He went from being a net negative in that fashion in many ways to being a plus nearly across the board.
In summation, Pesce is largely the same player that he was brought in to be from a defensive standpoint. He’s not quite as good as the zone entry denial aspect of things that were a selling point to the Devils’ front office, but he is still above average. On top of that, he’s generally massively improved at exiting the zone.
On a macro scale, his on-ice impacts are reflective of that consistency. Outside of two outlier seasons in Carolina in which his team was allowing at least 2.70 expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) with him on the ice, Pesce has allowed between 1.94-2.31 xGA/60 in every season of his career. This one is no exception, with the Devils having allowed 2.27 xGA/60 with Pesce on.
Offensive Microstats Extremely Encouraging
The funny part of Pesce’s game to me has always been that his on-ice offensive impacts were always strong but his microstats usually left people perplexed at why they were good. For example, last season, Pesce ranked in the 74th percentile for even-strength offensive WAR but possessed the following microstat profile:
Makes no sense, right? This season, though, his offensive WAR is ever-so-slightly worse but the little things in his game are much more reflective of a defenseman with a positive impact in the O-zone:
With such a stark difference between the two seasons, one would expect that they’re two completely different players. He turned into a net positive on just about everything minus transitional play (but who needs that when your defense partner is L. Hughes). He’s shooting a bit less than he has in the past (again, a product of playing alongside an offensive dynamo), but his playmaking has improved across the board.
Whereas he previously was allergic to passing the puck, he’s now a major contributor in shot assists, being an asset to the Devils in terms of generating shots — especially chances and high-danger chances. The only two defensemen in the league better at providing deflection assists are his ex-teammate Brent Burns and shockingly, Jacob Trouba. It’s extremely refreshing to see his game take a monumental step forward from an offensive standpoint — even if the on-ice results haven’t necessarily changed from an expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) standpoint, at least now it makes sense that his offensive impact is what it is. I suppose playing alongside Hughes has been mutually beneficial.
Ability to Play with (Almost) All Devils’ Defensemen
The final part of Pesce’s game that has impressed me in particular is his ability to play alongside (almost) each and every defenseman on the team. As a right-handed shooter, he’s played on his off-hand a decent amount, having logged some time next to Johnathan Kovacevic and Dougie Hamilton this season on top of the usual left-handed suspects.
He’s obviously spent the most time with Luke Hughes, having logged 648:34 of his 833:16 5v5 minutes (roughly 78% of his time this season) with the youngest brother. Together, the two sport an expected goal share (xGF%) of 55.30% on the season, which took a nosedive after the holiday break — they were at 61.62% prior to the break but struggled to the tune of a 44.32% xGF% in the time after the respite. I would imagine that this comes more from Luke’s struggles than Pesce’s, considering their respective statistical profiles when playing apart from each other since the break ended. It’s been bad for them on both ends since the end of December, having decreased their xGF/60 from 3.28 pre-break to 2.26 post-break and having increased their xGA/60 from 2.04 to 2.85. Still, the point stands that they’re a formidable duo and when they’re rolling, they’re rolling.
He’s spent the second-most time — just over 80 minutes — with Brenden Dillon. The two have combined to be an incredibly boring tandem, which surprises me considering Dillon’s struggles this season at defensive stalwartness. They haven’t done much of anything offensively together from an offensive standpoint, with the Devils having generated just 1.88 xGF/60 with them on the ice, but they also haven’t allowed anything, sporting an xGA/60 of just 1.63. Those are outrageous defensive totals, even bettering the Jonas Siegenthaler-Kovacevic pairing in xGA/60 in Dillon and Pesce’s limited minutes together. This has resulted in an overall surplus xGF% of 53.58%, which is quite respectable.
In his 33:55 with Siegenthaler, the story has been much the same as with Dillon, though with better results. The Devils are generating 2.15 xGF/60 but only allowing a mind-bogglingly low 1.62 xGA/60 with Pesce and Siegenthaler together, resulting in an xGF% of 57.03%. I would argue that if the Devils’ goal is to have a shutdown pairing, they should nix the ever-dominant Siegenthaler-Kovacevic pairing and instead roll with Siegenthaler-Pesce. That’s more so a testament to Siegenthaler’s ability this season to turn anyone into a defensive mastermind, but Pesce is a better complementary defender in isolation than Kovacevic.
With Hamilton, he’s spent a tiny bit over 30 minutes. As with anyone else playing with the offensive guru, Pesce’s xGF/60 numbers (2.91) are the best next to Hamilton than anyone else he’s played with this season, but the defensive numbers take a bit of a nosedive. The two ex-Canes have allowed 2.90 xGA/60, resulting in a still-positive but practically even 50.06% xGF%.
The only partner he’s struggled with this season is Kovacevic, who has struggled mightily when not playing alongside fellow defensive defenseman Jonas Siegenthaler. Pesce and Kovacevic have played just 49:30 together this season but have an xGF% of 42.76%, with the Devils producing a smidgen over 2.00 xGF/60 when they’re paired up together. For whatever reason, that has been the pairing of late, but considering how much they’re generally getting hemmed in, I wouldn’t count on it lasting much longer.
Outside of his play with Kovacevic, Pesce’s innate ability to adapt to his partner is pretty phenomenal. For example — and thank you to CJ Turtoro for this thought process — he’s shooting over 16 times an hour when playing alongside Dillon versus just 10 times per hour when alongside the better-shooting, more offensively-gifted L. Hughes. He’s only shooting twice per hour when playing alongside the team’s best blue-line shot threat in Hamilton. He hasn’t shot much when playing with Siegenthaler, but it’s important to note that he and Pesce haven’t started a single shift in the offensive zone, being deployed in a purely shutdown role. In that regard, Pesce is blocking more shots per hour with Siegenthaler than with any other defenseman on the team.
Pesce profiles as a sort of passenger-defenseman; not in the sense that a passenger forward lets his linemates do the heavy lifting, but in the sense that he changes his playstyle contingent on who he is playing with. He’s the ultimate utility complement who can and will adapt to his environment. If you need him in a shutdown role, he can excel. If you need him as a sturdy presence for a more offensively gifted partner, he can excel. If you need him to take charge as the offensive defenseman playing alongside a weaker defensive partner, well, he won’t necessarily excel but he’ll certainly try (in the case of Dillon).
He must be the easiest defenseman in the league to coach.