On Arseni Gritsyuk's Necessity as a Middle-Six Contributor
The New Jersey Devils will be getting a much-needed middle-six boost next season in Arseni Gritsyuk.
Over the past few seasons, the outlook on Devils’ prospect Arseni Gritsyuk has been a bit of a rollercoaster ride, in the sense that fans have been unsure of whether or not he’d actually be making the jump to the NHL.
This was only exacerbated by the semi-recent news that KHL contracts’ expiration dates were getting pushed back to May 31, meaning that Gritsyuk wouldn’t be able to make the move after his 2024-25 KHL season ends.
After reaching out to his agent, though, one thing became crystal clear regarding Gritsyuk’s future: he will be on the Devils next season. With that in mind, let’s go in-depth about why he’s going to be such an asset to the Devils:
Deep-Diving Gritsyuk’s Toolkit
I’ll get something very quickly out of the way first, in that looking solely at his point production in the KHL, it’s clear that he’s going to contribute at the NHL level in a middle-six capacity. He’s increased his point-per-game efficiency year-by-year, contributing 16 goals and 37 total points in 44 KHL games this year (0.84 points per game). That’s good for third on SKA St. Petersburg and 31st in the KHL.
Notably, only two players ahead of him in points have fewer minutes per game — Gritsyuk only plays a hair over 16 minutes on a nightly basis. Many of the top point-producing forwards are averaging around two more minutes a game.
With his production noted, though, it’s time to delve into what makes him such a threat offensively:
Skating
I wouldn’t call Gritsyuk’s skating extraordinary, but he is one of the stronger skaters in the KHL. He is faster than most of his peers and can swiftly reach his top speed. He has strong legs and can generate power without taking many strides. This allows him to create separation extremely easily — one or two strides and there is a stick length between his own body and that of the defender covering him.
The part of his skating that stands out to me is his edgework. Not only is he able to swerve and sneak around defenders on the rush by proxy of his ability to stay on his edges, but he can make a 180-degree turn at the drop of a hat. He has exemplary control of his body, being able to shimmy and change direction quickly without sacrificing his momentum or relaying to the defender (or goaltender) which way he’s going to go before he does it:
There’s potential here for this to translate into playdriving — the action of pushing play through the neutral zone and being a driving factor in an offensive possession. He has the speed and maneuverability to make a difference in bringing the puck through the neutral zone and navigating through pressure there. This will be particularly useful for the Devils, who largely lack playdriving in their bottom two lines. In the case where he acts as an offensive boost to the third line, this would be the most important impact he has (despite what we get into next).
Shooting
Gritsyuk’s call to fame has been — and always will be — his shot. He can change the angle of his release to fool goaltenders on practically all shot types, he picks his spots well, and he is quick-triggered. He has the makings of a plus-finisher at both even strength and the man advantage.
His best quality in terms of shots, in my opinion, is his pinpoint accuracy and deceptive release while on the rush, specifically when he’s in a seemingly innocuous position on the perimeter of the ice. This might sound like a hyper-specific case, but there are several examples from just this season of him displaying just this:
The goals above were scored just two days apart — this is an ability he displays often.
His one-timer is also especially impressive to me, and it’s particularly useful on the power play. He generates a ton of power quickly with his legs, driving his body through the puck without the need to show his hand all that much. This is a trait that many of the top one-time power play merchants show (Tage Thompson, Mika Zibanejad, Patrik Laine), though I’m certainly not saying he’s going to be as threatening as those three, or particularly close. He won’t spend much, if any, time on the first power-play unit considering the talent that the Devils have on their roster, but he’ll be a major reason why the second unit should be more threatening next season and beyond.
He is a volume shooter as well, averaging 3.53 shots per game over the last two seasons with SKA. He is unafraid of simply throwing the puck on the net and hoping that something comes out of it. At times, this can be a detriment and cause a loss of possession. When it works, though, it either causes a rebound opportunity for his teammates or catches the goalie so off-guard that it results in a goal:
Playmaking & Hockey Sense
His shot is his clear forte, and while I don’t think his passing abilities are bad, I do think there is a gigantic gap between the two. He has not consistently demonstrated an ability to go tape-to-tape or provide his teammates with passes from difficult areas of the ice or between defenders’ legs.
Instead, his playmaking is a product of his finishing ability and his innate detection of when a goaltender is hyper-aware of his shot. As I’ve said several times, his shot is his best asset, and Gritsyuk himself knows it. Once he gets the goaltender to freeze in anticipation of a shot — which is reasonable considering his technique and the fact that he’s a volume shooter — he is aware that sometimes, the best option is instead to defer to a teammate. After all, his shot threat opens up opportunities that otherwise would not be there.
On the rush, this makes him a strong facilitator of play, and while in the cycle, this makes him a strong candidate for high-danger passing plays.
Otherwise, in pertinence to his hockey sense, he is able to put himself in positions to succeed when his teammates have puck possession while on the cycle. He’s aware of where defensemen are and can sneak between them to high-danger areas of the ice, oftentimes leading to high-danger chances and goals if his teammates can execute the pass properly.
Stickhandling
I would not call stick skills a strength of his, but I don’t think this is a detriment to his game either. Gritsyuk shows very occasional flashes of stickhandling abilities, sporadically being able to move around defenders in stride not with his edgework, but his stickwork. It’s a semi-rarity, though, and I wouldn’t count on it too much at the NHL level. This goal is an excellent example of what he is capable of when firing on all cylinders in this regard:
He relies much more on the other aspects of his game — predominantly his shot and using it as a threat in conjunction with his above-average skating ability. In many ways, his game is very simple; he doesn’t care for overcomplicating his on-ice product with dekes and dangles. His bread and butter in transition in the KHL is and has been his skating, using his speed and acceleration to either blow by a defending forward in the neutral zone or to create separation from a covering defenseman. Though, as I said, when called upon he can occasionally flash a bag of tricks with his hands to further play with his food. It will be interesting to see how he adapts in this sense as the competition around him gets faster.
Size & Strength
While he isn’t big, Gritsyuk certainly has NHL size at 6’0 and just under 200 pounds. Being a stockier player, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that he possesses a high level of strength with the puck in his possession, particularly relative to those at the same height. He is consistently able to prevent defenders from reaching across with their sticks by using power moves that allow him to fend them off with his other arm.
He isn’t overly physical, but he can play the body at times and isn’t afraid to get into the dirty areas to make a play happen. He can get scrappy sometimes and will stick up for his teammates if needed.
Where his strength is particularly useful is in front of the net, where he is a puck-hound. He’ll cash in his own rebounds because of hard work and tenacity at times, and he’s difficult to move when he parks himself in front of the net to disturb the opposing goalie’s vision.
Overall Synopsis
Gritsyuk’s toolkit has the makings for an extremely competent middle-six winger and second power-play unit triggerman. He doesn’t have the skating or passing chops to make it in an expanded role, but he can be an effective complement for a playdriving center on the second line or a playdriving winger himself on the third line. Either way, there’s decently high potential here.
The “issue” with Gritsyuk’s game is that it’s entirely possible, if not probable, that the player who enters the NHL next season is at his peak. I wouldn’t say that there is a tangible sense that there’s more to his game or that he will further develop much. For all intents and purposes, his floor and ceiling are very tightly knit unless he makes a Tage Thompson-esque transformation overnight.
Meaningful Contribution at Team-Friendly Value
Perhaps the most important reason why Gritsyuk will be an asset to the Devils next season and the year after is that his cap hit will be extremely low relative to the value he should provide.
Because he’ll be 24 years old when he comes over, his Entry Level Contract (ELC) will only be for one year rather than the three-year ELCs that are typical of NHL-ready prospects. Still, the sub-$1 million deal for a significant year of the Devils’ Cup contention window is outright tantalizing. Gaining a productive winger for the middle-six at excellent value is how Stanley Cup-winning teams win.
This holds true for the previous five Stanley Cup-winning teams. In 2023-24, the Florida Panthers had Anton Lundell on an ELC. The 2022-23 Vegas Golden Knights had Pavel Dorofeyev. The 2021-22 Avalanche had Bowen Byram and Alex Newhook. In 2020-21, the Lightning had Ross Colton, and in 2019-20, they had Anthony Cirelli, Mikhail Sergachev, Carter Verhaeghe, and Erik Cernak (wow).
The point is that the winning teams consistently have a formula: meaningful contributions from ELC-having players. Gritsyuk should certainly be one of those players, and there’s a legitimate argument to be said that he could be more effective than a lot of those players relative to the time they were on those contracts — in theory, he’s a more polished 23-year-old who has spent the last four years developing in the top non-NHL league.
After receiving certainty that he’s going to take the leap to the NHL next season, it has become increasingly important to gauge the type of player the Devils will be adding: a strong-skating, excellent-shooting winger who can and will contribute offensively both at even strength and on the second power-play unit. At less than $1 million, he’s going to provide New Jersey with some much-needed depth offense.