In Defense of Tomas Tatar
The 34-year-old's game would have a completely different narrative around it if the third line could score a goal every now and then.
I’m of the opinion that a fourth line where precisely nothing happens on the ice is the best kind of fourth line. The Devils were spoiled a bit in 2022-23 with the BMW line — Michael McLeod and Miles Wood were operating as two of the best offensive fourth liners while also sacrificing nothing on defense, while Nathan Bastian operated as a sort of passenger, defense-first winger. But even looking around the league, not many teams in the NHL have a fourth line where I could say, “Yeah, they can put up a few goals.”
Maybe the Vancouver Canucks, who have Kiefer Sherwood and Nils Hoglander, or the Seattle Kraken, who previously had Brandon Tanev, Yanni Gourde, and Jordan Eberle. The point stands, though, that the vast, vast majority of teams’ bottom-six scoring comes from their third lines, whereas their fourth is primarily just made up of defense-first players who aren’t going to contribute much — if anything — offensively while not letting much in, either.
Enter Tomas Tatar, who has genuinely been one of the best fourth-liners in the NHL between his defensive stalwartness and underrated offensive outputs.
I was originally going to write this about Bastian, but until there is more clarity on this situation, I’m going to steer clear of mentioning him in a positive manner.
Anyway — Tatar has been a quietly excellent defensive player for pretty much his entire career, outside of maybe three seasons (2017-18, 2021-22, and 2023-24). That may sound like a large-ish sample size, but he has been in the league for 14 years now. 2024-25 has been no exception to this rule.
Defensive Aptitude
Again, as I mentioned, the ideal fourth-line player in the NHL probably doesn’t provide anything in the way of offense but doesn’t allow anything defensively — if I were to build a team, I’d want 10 minutes of nothing happening on the ice when my fourth line is out there.
Tatar is no exception to this rule.
Among the 371 forwards this season to log at least 400 minutes of ice time, Tatar ranks fifth in allowing the fewest shot attempts against per hour (CA/60). All four names above him are on the Carolina Hurricanes, a team that has made a name for itself with its suffocating play in Rod Brind’Amour’s system.
Only three players (Jackson Blake, Alex Iafallo, and William Carrier) on that list allow fewer actual shots on goal against per hour (SA/60), too. He ranks 17th in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) with exactly 2.00, 7th in the league in scoring chances against per 60 minutes (SCA/60), and 16th in high-danger chances against per 60 minutes (HDCA/60).
All of this is being done while being deployed in the defensive zone off on faceoffs 55.59% of the time, so it’s not like Tatar has been getting favorable deployment, either. He’s just been really, really solid on the defensive side of things.
According to Evolving Hockey, among players whom I arbitrarily measured to be fourth-liners — players with fewer than 12 minutes played per game — Tatar ranks 9th in the NHL in even-strength defensive expected goals above replacement (EVD xGAR). His EVD xGAR ranks fourth on the team behind Jack Hughes, Bastian, and Paul Cotter.
The interesting thing is, according to his microstats, his puck retrieval and zone exit metrics are abysmal. His on-ice defensive impacts are solely due to his ability to suppress shots and chances via his pressure and positioning while in the defensive zone. He gets in passing and shooting lanes, disallowing opponents from either getting a clean look at the net for a shot or disturbing their cyclic play through puck distribution.
It’s easy to overlook this superb defensive play because of the fact that the Devils’ bottom six isn’t scoring at all outside of (occasionally) Cotter and Dawson Mercer. Tatar himself has just six goals and 15 total points this season, so I completely understand the fanbase’s general disdain for him this season, even if that might be unwarranted.
Tatar’s Underrated Offensive Impacts
In fact, I would argue he’s the only player besides Cotter in the Devils’ bottom six worth a damn from an offensive standpoint.
Of the 15 players better than Tatar in terms of xGA/60, just four of them (Mark Jankowski, Jackson Blake, Victor Olofsson, and Sam Reinhart) have better expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) outputs.
Of the arbitrary list of bottom-six players with superior EVD xGAR numbers than Tatar, none of them have a higher even-strength offensive (EVO) xGAR. His EVO xGAR ranks fourth on the Devils behind Nico Hischier, Jack, and Cotter.
From a microstatistical standpoint, nothing is particularly impressive, but he is the only member of the bottom six to be a true plus in terms of zone entries.
Cotter, Haula, Lazar, Bastian, and Mercer all struggle immensely with this facet of their game, while Tatar profiles as a legitimate driver of play from a transitional standpoint within the bottom six. In that sense, on this team, Tatar is a unicorn.
All this is to say, I think it’s unfair that Tatar has been lumped in with the rest of the Devils’ bottom-six. On top of being the usual suspect of defensive aptitude that one would find in any team’s fourth line, he has some genuine offensive skill and playdriving ability that have largely gone unnoticed because 1) he’s gotten robbed of goals on several occasions this season and 2) the entire bottom six struggles to produce offense. Finishing aside, that isn’t his fault.
If I were Tom Fitzgerald, Tatar is a name I would consider re-upping next season for the bottom six. His lack of production lowers his price tag by a significant margin, but the underlying metrics tell the story of a very effective fourth-liner.