Implications of the Rising Salary Cap for the New Jersey Devils
The NHL salary cap is going up by over $25 million in the next three years, so what does that mean for the Devils?
In 2024-25, the NHL salary cap is $88 million. At the end of January, though, it was announced that over the next three seasons, the cap would be rising to a projected $113.5 million — a $25.5 million increase. Next season, the cap will be $95.5 million, rising $7.5 million above what it is currently at. Beyond that, annual rises of $8.5 and $9.5 million will presumably be in effect by proxy of a strong fiscal projection for the NHL.
What does this mean for the Devils? Let’s waste no time and get right into it:
The Benefit of Having the Core Locked Up
The Devils are in a phenomenal spot with their core, with Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, and Timo Meier locked up until at least 2030 at more than reasonable cap hits per player. J. Hughes is arguably the league’s best deal value-wise, and Bratt is surpassing his $7.875 million AAV more and more with each passing day. Timo’s $8.8 million paycheck is a bit more nuanced than that and the production hasn’t necessarily warranted it, but there is still precedent for him being worth his cap hit and it matters less and less the more the cap rises.
In 2025-26, J. Hughes’ contract will take up 8.37% of the salary cap, Bratt’s will take up 8.25%, and Timo’s will take up 9.21%. In 2026-27, that moves to 8.05%, 7.57%, and 8.46%, respectively. For 2027-28, the deals will take up a respective 7.04%, 6.94%, and 7.75%.
Nico Hischier’s contract expires in 2027-28, but until then he’s getting paid a more than reasonable $7.25 million. That’ll eat up 7.59% of the cap next season and 6.97% of the cap in 2026-27.
Even Dougie Hamilton’s $9 million AAV deal won’t have as significant a mark on the cap hit, and he’s also worth every penny as arguably the league’s best offensive defenseman this season from an underlying metric standpoint. His deal will take up 9.42% of the cap next season, 8.65% in 2026-27, and 7.93% in 2027-28.
For comparison, let’s look at what I would regard to be the strongest Stanley Cup-winning team in the 2021-22 Colorado Avalanche. Nathan MacKinnon was on the league’s best-value contract then, with an AAV of $6.3 million. While that might sound like a ridiculous lowball, it was 7.73% of the salary cap at the time. Mikko Rantanen’s $9.25 million ate up 11.35% of the cap, Cale Makar’s $9 million took up 11.04% of the cap, and Gabriel Landeskog’s $7 million took up 8.59%.
Combined, the Avalanche’s four best players made $31.55 million, totaling 38.7% of the salary cap for that season. Next season, the Devils’ current five highest-paid players will make a combined $40.925 million, taking up 42.85% of the 2025-26 salary cap. In 2026-27, that’ll amount to 39.35%.
What made the Avalanche so dangerous was their depth, which they were able to accomplish because their best players didn’t make as much as they should have relative to their market worth. The Devils are in an extremely similar boat in the next two seasons, and considering the only player I listed who has an expiring deal in that time is Hischier in 2027-28, they’re likely set up for success until at least 2030 (when Jack’s deal is up).
Notable Extensions Due
2025-26: Luke Hughes
The Devils’ most notable contract extension due on the blueline is none other than Luke Hughes, who the Devils will almost certainly be looking to lock up long-term. I don’t think he’s going to make more than his brother, who is the franchise centerpiece, but I don’t think he’s going to take much less, either. His point production is middling but he has the underlying results, draft and genetic pedigree, and eye-test aptitude to suggest that he’s going to turn into an absolute monster.
There’s precedent for him making more than that, with Owen Power getting $8.35 million annually and Moritz Seider making $8.55 million a season, but I think the understanding within the organization and between the Hughes brothers is that they’ll get matching AAVs.
My projection: Luke Hughes signs an eight-year, $8 million AAV contract.
2025-26: Jake Allen
I wrote recently about how Jake Allen should be a priority for the Devils’ front office in terms of getting him a one-year extension before he hits free agency. He’s been the league’s best backup this season and has filled in for the injured Jacob Markstrom quite nicely.
Thankfully, there are comparables to go by. Charlie Lindgren, for example, is reportedly looking at a multi-year deal in the $3.5-4 million AAV range. Lindgren is younger and has better box-score statistics than Allen, so it’s likely that the latter of the two is looking more at $2.75-3.25 million AAV on a one-year deal.
My projection: Jake Allen signs a one-year, $3 million AAV contract.
2026-27: Simon Nemec
This one is tough. On one hand, Simon Nemec has an extraordinarily high ceiling as a legitimate, high-impact #2-3 defenseman, has the draft pedigree of a second-overall selection, and proved last season that he has the chops to succeed in an NHL role long-term. On the other, he has struggled mightily in his time in the big leagues this season and the only reason he’s on the NHL roster at all is because Jonas Siegenthaler is out long-term. Even then, he was scratched for Seamus Casey last night and has largely looked out of place.
Assuming the Devils value him over extending Johnathan Kovacevic, he’ll be playing on his entry-level contract (ELC) worth $918,333 ($3.25 million if he hits his performance bonuses)1 next season.
In 2026-27, though, things get a bit more complicated.
If things go well for Nemec next season, I think the Devils take a long, hard look at giving him a six to eight-year contract. Fitzgerald has shown no hesitation in locking pieces up long-term, and if they’re as high on Nemec as perhaps they should be, this would be a no-doubter.
If things are still rocky for him, though, or if he doesn’t show that astronomical ceiling more often than not, I think he’s going to get bridged. Looking back at previous highly-regarded defense prospects who have signed bridge deals, a few names come to mind: Jamie Drysdale, Bowen Byram, and Adam Boqvist.
Drysdale, drafted sixth overall in 2020, was handed a three-year bridge deal worth $2.3 million annually — 2.75% of the cap. Byram, drafted fourth overall in 2019, was given a two-year deal worth $3.875 million per year — 4.61% of the cap. Boqvist, drafted eighth overall in 2018, was offered a three-year deal with a $2.8 million AAV, amounting to 3.15% of the cap. All three were extended right after their ELCs ended, and I think that Nemec takes a similar path.
Nemec has the highest ceiling of the four, in my opinion, as well as the highest draft pedigree. I would imagine that he signs for three seasons, making his cap hit less than it would be with less term on the deal. I could see him signing in the 3.25-3.5% range, which, in 2026-27, amounts to the $3.38-$3.64 million range.
My projection: Simon Nemec signs a three-year, $3.45 million AAV contract.
2026-27: Jacob Markstrom
In the same article in which I wrote about the necessity of Allen garnering a one-year extension, I mentioned that I think the Devils should do the same with Markstrom when his deal expires next season. New Jersey has a couple of high-ceiling goalie prospects in Mikhail Yegorov and Jakub Málek, but neither will be ready for a starting role in 2026-27. Málek will likely be ready for a backup role, but Yegorov will take at least another season to iron things out in the NCAA.
Enter Markstrom, who I think should be handed a one-year deal. The last goaltender who signed a one-year deal in the late stages of their career was Marc-Andre Fleury, but considering he was 40 years old (to Markstrom’s 37 after his contract was up) and that he was/is in a tandem with a better goaltender now, I’m not going to use that as a reference. Instead, Jimmy Howard’s one-year contract with a value of $5.1 million signed before the 2019-20 contract is what I’ll go by. Howard’s career .912 save percentage (SV%) is higher than Markstrom’s (.909), so for the sake of this exercise let’s assume he eats up less of the cap.
Howard’s deal, at the time, took up 6.26% of the cap. Let’s say Markstrom’s one-year deal takes up 6% of the 2026-27 salary cap.
My projection: Jacob Markstrom signs a one-year, $6.24 million AAV contract.
2026-27: Paul Cotter
I actually really, really like Paul Cotter’s game and think he’s the perfect bottom-six player for this team. On one hand — the hand I like, he’s extremely talented, being a brain short of having legitimate top-six upside. On the other, he satisfies the ever-annoying part of the fanbase that aches for aimless physicality. He’s the best of both worlds.
He’s under team control as a restricted free agent and will be 26 years old when his contract expires. Cotter’s production doesn’t jump off the page, which is a good thing. He’s on pace to have a career-high 18 goals and 26 points this season, and for the sake of this projection let’s say that he scores the same in 2025-26. He’s also generally undisciplined and doesn’t play on either special teams unit.
I don’t think the Devils will sign him for more than three seasons. There is one name in particular that comes to mind when thinking about this potential deal: Trent Frederic. After a 17-goal, 31-point campaign in 2022-23, the generally undisciplined, fourth-line, 5v5-playing-only Frederic was handed a two-year deal worth $2.3 million annually. That took up just 2.75% of the cap. Cotter should be offered something similar.
My projection: Paul Cotter signs a two-year, $2.86 million AAV contract.
2027-28: Nico Hischier
In the next three seasons, I don’t think anything will affect the Devils’ cap outlook more than Nico Hischier’s next deal. He’s going to command a significant raise from the $7.25 million he’s currently getting paid, as he’s a much better player now than he was when he signed the deal and is the Devils’ heart and soul. He’ll be 28 when his deal ends, meaning that GM Tom Fitzgerald probably won’t shy away from a max-term deal.
Looking at his production and deployment, Hischier has averaged just below a point per game in the last three seasons (he has 193 in his last 205 games). He’s an all-situations player who will push for 20+ minutes on a nightly basis. There’s precedent for these kinds of deals, of course. Dylan Larkin and Mika Zibanejad come to mind.
Prior to then-26-year-old Larkin’s eight-year, $8.7 million AAV contract, he had put up 148 points in 151 games in the previous two seasons. He is a first power-play, first penalty-kill player who is a plus in the faceoff dot. Mika Zibanejad, who was 28 when he signed, produced 206 points in 194 games in the three seasons before signing his eight-year, $8.5 million deal while also playing 20+ minutes in all situations every night. Larkin’s deal took up 10.4% of the cap and Zibanejad’s took up 10.3%. Hischier should probably follow suit.
My projection: Nico Hischier signs an eight-year, $11.6 million AAV contract.
2027-28: Dawson Mercer
If you were to put a gun to my head and ask me if Mercer was still going to be on the team at this time, I’d say no. I think he could very well be used as a centerpiece for a legitimate top-six winger for Jack, but for the sake of projecting the next three seasons of the Devils’ salary cap, let’s just assume he sticks around.
Mercer is an interesting case in that he’s flatlined from a production standpoint despite hopes of him continuing his trajectory as the top-six caliber player he flashed in his sophomore season. He struggled last season and as a result, was handed a three-year bridge deal worth $4 million a season. I think he’s going to continue getting three-to-four-year deals for the rest of his career.
He’ll be 25 when he signs his next deal, and let’s assume he maintains the near-half-point-per-game he’s been rolling at for his career. Ross Colton, Jake DeBrusk, and Alex Iafallo are comparable in these situations.
Colton, who signed his contract when he was 27, signed for four years at $4 million AAV. He played on Tampa’s second power-play unit and third line before making the jump to Colorado and had produced 71 points in the previous 160 games. His deal took up 4.79% of the cap.
For DeBrusk, let’s look at the deal he signed with the Bruins before the 2022-23 season. At that time, he was 25 years old and had produced 91 points in his previous 182 games — exactly a half-point per game. He was handed a two-year contract worth $4 million annually, taking up 4.85% of the cap.
Finally, there’s Iafallo’s contract, which was signed in his age-27 season to the tune of four years and a $4 million AAV. It looks bad now, but when he signed he’d been playing well, scoring 73 points in his last 125 games. His deal was worth 4.91% of the cap.
These three deals lead me to believe that Mercer will, if he continues on his flatlined trajectory, sign for around 4.85% of the cap.
My projection: Dawson Mercer signs a four-year, $5.5 million AAV contract.
Notable ELCs
2025-26: Arseni Gritsyuk
Arseni Gritsyuk, barring some catastrophic chasm between him and the organization, will be on the Devils’ roster next season, which his agent confirmed to me not too long ago. The now-23-year-old will be on a two-year ELC at presumably $925,000 AAV. He should slot into a third-line role right off the bat and contribute meaningfully in the team’s middle-six.
2025-26/26-27: Lenni Hämeenaho
Lenni Hämeenaho, meanwhile, is under contract in Liiga until the end of this season. I imagine that he will sign his ELC as soon as his season is over. Because Hämeenaho is 20 years old, the typical ELC sliding rules don’t apply, so even if he spends the full 2025-26 season in the AHL — which I wouldn’t be surprised by, considering that he has never played on North American ice for a meaningful amount of time before — his first year of that contract gets burned. If he plays well in Utica next season, I don’t see why he wouldn’t be yet another meaningful middle-six contributor, but my money is on him not playing legitimately in the NHL until 2026-27. Still, he’ll have two years left on his ELC by then and will contribute at near-league-minimum.
2025-26/26-27: Jakub Málek
I noted above that Málek may be ready for a backup role in 2026-27. He’s already signed to a two-way deal (before getting loaned to Liiga), so he’ll probably make the jump to the AHL next season, acclimating to North American ice and pace before taking on an NHL backup role in 2026-27, though I could see him being an injury call up next season.
2026-27: Anton Silayev
Anton Silayev still has this and next season left on his KHL contract, meaning that he is ineligible to come over to the Devils (unless he nixes his KHL deal) until 2026-27. Silayev’s agent has been quoted in the past as saying “It will be the right time when he will turn 20 in two years to make that step [to the NHL],” though, so that seems highly unlikely. He’ll have the full three years of his ELC, but his impact on the Devils’ books will be contingent on how quickly he acclimates to the faster pace and smaller ice. I have no concerns that he won’t be able to adapt because of his toolkit as an elite-skating 6’7 defensive defenseman.
2027-28: Mikhail Yegorov
Most college goaltenders spend three seasons in the NCAA before making the jump to the NHL, and Mikhail Yegorov shouldn’t be regarded as an exception unless he shows some practically unfounded dominance at the collegiate level. Look for him to sign his three-year ELC after those years in college are over and immediately make a run for the starter role.
Cap Outlooks Per Season
With these in mind, let’s take a look at what the Devils’ cap outlooks will be for each of next season, 2026-27, and 2027-28. For the sake of this exercise, I’m not accounting for any trades the Devils have in store for the 2025 Trade Deadline and am solely signing the players whose contracts I mentioned and projected above.
2025-26:
This is how the Devils will presumably look on the books next season, considering Luke’s 8x8, Allen’s one-year deal, and Gritsyuk’s ELC. They have a difficult decision ahead in terms of whether to sign Johnathan Kovacevic before he hits free agency, but I’m assuming that they have more value in Nemec’s ceiling than they do in staying more defense-first oriented on the back end — Nemec would give them three legitimate puck-moving pairings, in theory.
This 20-man roster has $5,119,167 left over in cap space with two holes to fill in the bottom six (third-line center, fourth-line left wing) and a seventh-defenseman. Seems like more than enough money to make it work.
2026-27:
This roster, with 19 players, leaves the Devils with $12,950,000 in cap space with two more holes in the bottom six: third and fourth-line center. They’ll also need a seventh defenseman and perhaps another scratched forward if the goal is to fill all 23 roster spots. Outside of Palat being in the top-six, this forward group is ridiculously stacked and the defense corps is unchanged outside of cap hit. This might be the Devils’ best chance at a Stanley Cup.
Notably, this is the last season for the Palat, MacDermid, and Dillon contracts.
2027-28:
This is when things really open up for the Devils from a personnel standpoint. As per the constraints of this article, the Devils will only have 14 players under contract at this time, with $36,740,000 in space. There is a glaring hole next to J. Hughes and Bratt which should, in theory, take up a good chunk of change. They’re missing a third and fourth-line center and one bottom-six winger on either side. I assume the third-line right-wing slot would be filled with Gritsyuk, but for how much is to be seen by his production and play. There is also a need for a second goaltender, but in my head that’s Jakub Málek at whatever price he earns. As usual, there’s also a need for extras on both defense and forward.
How Can They Improve Their Cap Outlook?
Buy Out Ondrej Palat
Ondrej Palat’s albatross $6 million AAV contract changes from having a full no-movement clause to having a ten-team no-trade clause on July 1. The Devils, meanwhile, would be wise to buy him out of that contract if they are unable to find a trade partner for him. His buyout structure looks like this:
That saves the Devils nearly $2.5 million in 2025-26 and nearly $3.5 million in 2026-27. This makes life much easier if their goal is to truly find a long-term top-six solution to pair with Jack Hughes, and the subsequent ~$1.5 million cap hits in 2027-28 and 2028-29 mean practically nothing considering the salary cap will be at $113.5 in 2027-28 and more in the next season. Buying out Palat should be a legitimate priority this upcoming offseason.
Bury Kurtis MacDermid
There is zero (0) reason for MacDermid to be on an NHL roster in all honesty, let alone for three years at more than a million per. He’s completely inept with the puck on his stick, reckless with the puck off it, and probably won’t score a single goal for the duration of his contract. The Devils can bury his contract and its $1.15 million AAV cap hit entirely in the AHL — and they should. If they send him to waivers, hopefully, someone will save the Devils from themselves here, but the consolation prize is that even if he doesn’t get claimed his contract wouldn’t count against their salary cap from Utica.
Find a Trade Partner for Erik Haula
It’ll only affect them for the 2025-26 season, but they should really try to get Erik Haula off the team this upcoming offseason as well. His $3.15 million deal isn’t the worst, but man, he is just not worth that money anymore. He’s defensively fine, but that’s just too much money for someone who is allergic to scoring points. If they can get him off the books for next season and replace him with a better playdriving bottom-six center who can still contribute to a two-way game (which sounds harder than it likely is), they’ll be better off.
The three-year outlook for the Devils is pretty encouraging, in all honesty. (Most of) their stars are locked up long-term, and the Devils will be able to build a depth-filled team around them because of it. There is no reason that considering their cap outlook, they won’t be able to compete for the Stanley Cup for quite a while.
NHL performance bonuses operate in the capacity that teams get a 7.5% cushion with the salary cap for those bonuses if they are hit. In other words, the Devils are allowed to go 7.5% above the salary cap if their players hit performance bonuses. In 2025-26, that would mean that the Devils are able to fit an additional $7,166,250 in cap space for bonus allocation.
I wonder if the Devils consider letting Allen go, next season, if Daws continues to show well. He's been very, very good since getting called up, and he was superb last night - nearly perfect economy of motion, which is so important for bigger goalies.
Great article! Thank you!