How the Devils Can Beat Columbus in Crucial Two Games
The Devils are in two must-win games versus the Columbus Blue Jackets over the next seven days. How do they win?
The New Jersey Devils are set to play the Columbus Blue Jackets in a monumental game Tuesday night — the first of two games against Columbus in a six-day span. With the Blue Jackets closely trailing the Devils in the playoff race, both truly are must-win games, which is a term I don’t like to throw around often.
Per MoneyPuck, should the Devils win in regulation, their playoff odds move to 91.5%, a 3.8% increase from where they currently stand. With a regulation loss, those odds dip all the way down to 80.4% — still likely, per se, but a gigantic 7.2% dip. The Blue Jackets, meanwhile, will have their playoff odds jump 9.8% with a regulation win, to 42.6%. A regulation loss sends them back down to 25.4%, a dropoff of 7.5%. By all accounts, this singular game has legitimate playoff implications and could decide the Metropolitan Division running. It will be a postseason atmosphere, and I’m positive the teams will both be playing extra physically.
So, what in particular can the Devils do to ensure victory?
Get to the Middle
Columbus has been a leaky team this season, having averaged 9% more expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) than league average over the course of the season. Their goaltending hasn’t been particularly strong, either, with neither Elvis Merzlikins nor Daniil Tarasov boasting particularly impressive statlines this season.
In particular, while they are saving more than expected from low-danger areas of the ice, things get tougher for the Columbus netminders when players shoot from the middle two-thirds of the offensive zone. From just outside the top of the circle right to the netfront, Columbus goaltenders are having a hard time tracking and saving pucks. The Devils have the shooting talent to get to this area of the ice, and if they want to beat Merzlikins cleanly, getting even 10% closer to the middle of the ice than the perimeter will do them wonders.
Merzlikins has been a strange case of duality this season, either saving well above expected in a particular game (he did so in December, stopping 40 of 42 Devils shots and saving 3.34 goals above expected) or being generally unable to stop a puck from even low-danger areas of the ice. He’s seemingly bounced back and forth recently between the two, with goals saved expected (GSAx) numbers of +2.64, -2.14, +1.77, -0.52, and +1.89 in his last five games. The way things have been a rollercoaster for him, perhaps he’ll turn into a pumpkin tonight.
Win Early
It seems like a pretty simple goal here, but the Devils have to come out on top in the first period. I don’t care how they do it. I don’t care if they get outplayed doing so, but they need to exit the period with a lead.
When their opponents get the first goal, the Blue Jackets sport a record of 7-15-3. The problem here is that, at home, where they are in the second game, they’ve only allowed the first goal seven times.
When the Devils score first, they boast a record of 21-5-3. They’ve been an effective team at sealing things off after taking the lead all season. They score first particularly often on the road, too, doing so 19 times as opposed to 10 at home.
Things get even more disparity when looking at their respective records after the first period, which is why I mentioned that New Jersey must come out of the first with the lead. When trailing after the first, Columbus is 1-13-0 — it’s an impressive feat to only be down after one 14 times in their first 63 or so games, but they aren’t a great team at coming back after 20 minutes. When leading after one, the Devils are a near-unbeatable 17-1-1. It’s a tale of two polar opposites, so I’m of the opinion that the first period will decide the game.
Put Noesen Back on PP1
This isn’t to say that the Devils’ power play has been bad since they moved Stefan Noesen off of the first unit in favor of Dawson Mercer, but considering the matchup they have, it’s of utmost importance to put him back on PP1. Taking a look at the Blue Jackets’ defensive shot map whilst on the penalty kill, one thing becomes abundantly clear: they are poor crease-clearers when a man down:
They’re generally a solid enough team covering the slot and within the blue paint, but they struggle immediately outside of the crease. That’s where Noesen is his most effective, looking at his isolated impact on the Devils’ power play:
Sure, there’s a tiny bit of overlap in the areas of the ice that Columbus isn’t necessarily prone to giving up chances — namely from literally in the blue paint — but Noesen’s most prominent area of expertise on the man advantage is right outside of it, where Columbus is struggling the most to prevent chances from occurring. The Devils would be wise to put Noesen back on the first unit, if anything just to capitalize in these two crucial games.
These two games against the Blue Jackets, who are breathing down the Devils’ necks in the playoff hunt (just four points back of third in the Metro with two games at hand) are pivotal to the Devils’ outlook. Win both, and there’s a good chance New Jersey will make it to the postseason. Lose both, and things get extremely dicey.
If they can capitalize on these three things, though, they have a good chance of exiting one, if not both games on top. In many ways, these two teams are the perfect matchup for each other — the Blue Jackets are shooting the lights out while the Devils receive stellar goaltending on a nightly basis; the Devils struggle to finish while the Blue Jackets’ goalies are below-average; both teams are averaging between 28.6-28.8 shots per game. The playoff implications are massive for both teams, and both will be playing for their lives in both games.
It’s going to be must-watch hockey.
I will be fantastically cranky if we lose this game.
I would try distracting the blue jackets with gentle kisses on the nose, when they're blushing and flustered, take the puck for an easy goal. I'm great at this.