Devils Should Go Big Game Hunting This Trade Deadline

With Jack Hughes presumably hitting LTIR, now is the time for Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald to make a significant splash.

Mar 05, 2025

Before I begin on the piece today, I’d like to start off with a quick couple of thoughts on last night’s game against the Dallas Stars:

That play by Johnathan Kovacevic was one of the dumber plays I’ve seen this season — genuinely. I know, I know, it was an atrocious icing call and Thomas Harley absolutely could have played the puck; the referees should have negated the icing call altogether. At the same time, you simply cannot risk icing the puck at all if you’re Kovacevic there. The Devils needed — needed — at least one point last night and with less than 20 seconds to go, he just needed to take two more strides (if that) to ensure that he crossed the red line. Why even risk the threat of an icing call? Just buck up and hold the puck for half a second more. Absolutely ridiculous.
With that in mind, I truly thought the Devils had a phenomenal game overall. They showed that even sans Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton, and Jonas Siegenthaler — a top-5-10 player in the NHL, their best offensive defenseman, and the best defensive defenseman in the league — they can compete with the best of them. The effort was there. The Devils’ other stars absolutely showed up and put the team on their back when they needed it most. They out-chanced, out-xG’d, out-played a Cup-contending Stars team, and looked every bit as tenacious as they have in any game this season. Considering the circumstances, the vibes were immaculate. It was a superb game through and through, which makes the above point even more frustrating and unacceptable.

With point number two, it becomes clear to me that the Devils, somewhere deep in there, are true Cup contenders this season as well. This is going to sound absolutely batshit-crazy, but I genuinely believe that the Jack injury was a wake-up call for the rest of the stars. With the superstar, franchise center being on the ice for 105 of 185 of the Devils’ goals this season, they needed their other guys to step up if they wanted to show their true character, and I think those stars (Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier, Timo Meier) will.

If they’re going to be contenders, though, now is the time to add another gigantic piece to the fold. I assume that Jack will be out for the remainder of the regular season, and perhaps even into the playoffs. With his cap hit moving to LTIR — which I would anticipate — the Devils will have roughly $13 million to play with. Still, making the playoffs is a must and the best way to supplement Jack’s absence is to go big game hunting.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at a couple of players the Devils should be all over under that criteria.

Elias Pettersson

I know. It’s crazy. I know. He gets paid $11.6 million. I know. He’s had a horrible, horrible season. But hear me out:

You don’t score 412 points in your first 407 games by accident. You just don’t. Pettersson earned every cent of that $11.6 million. Prior to this season, he put up 89 points in 82 2023-24 games, and the season before that he logged 102 points in 80. He’d potted at least 32 goals in each of the last three seasons before 2024-25.

Again, you don’t do that by accident.

I also don’t think he’s particularly mentally fragile, which is a narrative that’s been pushed around a lot by Vancouver media. Sure, he and JT Miller didn’t mesh very well in the locker room, but it’s also easy to forget that Miller has been labeled as a locker room cancer practically everywhere he’s gone. Sure, he’s gotten into some “tiffs” with Vancouver reporters, but how much would you enjoy being asked the same two questions every night about either your relationship with the guy in the locker room you clearly hate or about how the season has been frustrating for you? I certainly wouldn’t be having any fun dealing with the press, either.

No, it goes beyond that for sure. There’s definitely been some lingering injury issues this season for him, and that shows not only by his point totals but his NHL Edge profile as well.

In the comparison above, the dark gray profile is Pettersson’s 2024-25, and the light gray is his 102-point 2022-23 season. The only two things that are comparable is his time spent in the offensive zone and his top shot speed.

His top speed ranked in the 94th percentile in 2022-23 — this season, it’s in the 73rd. He ranked in the 90th percentile for 20+ mph speed bursts two years ago — this season, he’s in the 70th percentile. There’s been an obvious dip in his shots per game, too. He put up 656 shots in his last three seasons, averaging out to 2.71 per game. This season, he has just 94 in 54, a rate of 1.74.

Even if you look deeper into the top shot speed metric, which NHL Edge would have you believe is comparable, things aren’t quite right. Of his 257 shots in 2022-23, 24 of them were between 90-100 mph (9.3%), 86 of them were between 80-90 (33.5%), and 104 were between 70-80 (40.5%). Of the 94 shots this season, only two have been between 90-100 (2.1%), 19 have been between 80-90 (20.2%), and 33 have been between 70-80 (35.1%). His shot speed, on average, is down tremendously.

Between the skating issues and the shot speed issues, something is clearly ailing him and has been for the bulk of the season. He missed six games due to a mystery injury after the holiday break, and I think it’s been bothering him all season. I’m obviously no doctor, but it’s also clear in the way that he’s playing the game that he isn’t himself physically. Pair that with the mental struggles that come with the scrutiny from the masses and media, and there’s a recipe for disaster.

Even with the clear struggles, he hasn’t even really been that bad under the hood this season. He hasn’t been good, just to be clear, but his expected goal share (xGF%) is just below the 50% mark (49.37%). For a superstar to be struggling this much on the scoreboard while dealing with a nagging injury and post average-ish on-ice results is telling of how much he does care about performing as best he can night in and night out. For reference, it’s the first time he’s been below 50% since his rookie campaign.

Again, you don’t drop from this…

…to this…

…practically overnight for just no reason.

The Canucks are listening to offers and selling very low on their superstar, though, and I do think it would be a mistake for Fitzgerald to ignore the prior data and successes of Petterson over one clearly injury-bugged season. Plus, it would anger the part of the Devils fanbase that thinks that the team is too “soft,” and that’s when I’m having the most fun. Do it for me, Fitzy.

That part of the fanbase — one which finds itself in my comments on the daily because they’re allergic to advanced statistics and deeper-than-surface-level analysis — also seems to believe Pettersson doesn’t perform in the playoffs, and, well, that’s just not true. He’s only appeared in 30 games in the playoffs, but has 24 points — including an 18-point-in-17-game 2019-20 postseason. Last season, he sported an xGF% of 52.85% in the playoffs. Doesn’t scream “bad” to me.

Taking on the full extent of his cap hit would be tough for the Devils to eat without sending something significant back to Vancouver cap-wise. Maybe Ondrej Palat waives his No-Movement Clause (NMC) or Erik Haula waives his full-No-Trade Clause (NTC) to help ease the pain but I doubt that’s on the table. Dawson Mercer would undoubtedly be going back the other way, on top of a blue-chip defense prospect (probably Nemec), top forward prospect (Lenni Hämeenaho, maybe), and at minimum a 2026 first-round pick and 2025 second-rounder, but that’s the cost of business when dealing for superstardom. I send those pieces plus without thinking twice.

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Mikko Rantanen

What a crazy saga it’s been for the Carolina Hurricanes in pertinence to Mikko Rantanen, eh? For those who haven’t been paying attention, they shipped out their leading scorer at the time (Martin Necas), a young, defense-first center with legitimate upside (Jack Drury), a second-rounder, third-rounder, and fourth-rounder for Avalanche superstar Mikko Rantanen at 50% retention and ex-Devil Taylor Hall. Carolina then offered Rantanen a deal worth north of $100 million total (eight years of at least $12.5 million), but reports have said that he isn’t interested in signing with them and instead they find themselves having to entertain trade offers at the deadline.

Rantanen has gotten a bit of a reputation during his tenure as a Hurricane as being a bit of a Nathan MacKinnon merchant, but who isn’t? Rantanen has still been a good player for Carolina despite the middling six points (2G, 4A) in 12 games — his xGF% as a Hurricane would be the second-highest of his career over the course of a full season, with a ridiculous 59.58% xGF%.

According to Pierre LeBrun, the Devils have already called Carolina GM Erik Tulsky and mentioned that, if they truly are selling him, the Devils want in on the bidding.

I’m all for it.

Even if Rantanen was a bit of a MacKinnon merchant, the Devils have elite playdrivers themselves, much more so than the Hurricanes do, in my opinion. The Hurricanes don’t have a Jack Hughes (or anyone who can drive play remotely that well). Their best playdriver this season was arguably Necas, and he’s gone.

Rantanen’s skillset is that of the world’s best “passenger” player. He makes his living off of his extraordinarily high hockey IQ, world-beating shot, and underrated playmaking ability when either in the zone or as a passenger on the rush. He doesn’t make it off of the forecheck-heavy style that Carolina employs. He’s always paired best with players who are exemplary at zone-to-zone play.

I put “passenger” in quotes because I don’t think he’s a passenger player in totality, but rather just a passenger on the rush. In the cycle, he is able to extend and drive play by proxy of his extremely underrated passing abilities on top of the world-beating shot I mentioned and everyone knows about. On the flipside, he doesn’t like the puck on his stick in transition but is an extremely effective player off the rush, telling me that he’s a passenger in rush hockey and rush hockey alone while being a playdriving asset in the cycle. It’s an interesting dichotomy that I’m not sure I’ve seen before. You can see as much in his microstats from this season:

The zone entries in conjunction with the high-danger pass and shots off of high-danger pass metrics are telling of that story. High-danger passes largely occur on the rush, and if he isn’t the one taking the puck over the blue line, he’s the passenger. Having superb microstats for those high-danger pass situations indicates that he just likes being the second guy in that scenario.

For comparison’s sake, Aho and Svechnikov respectively rank in the 73rd and 55th percentiles for zone entries in 2024-25. J. Hughes ranks in the 93rd percentile. Bratt ranks in the 90th. Meier ranks in the 89th. The Hurricanes simply don’t have the transitional style or firepower to keep up with Rantanen’s expertise. He could, and probably would, be much more productive in a different black and red uniform.

It would take a king’s ransom, I assume, to trade for Rantanen, even if it’s a this-season-only thing. It makes sense, though. Acquiring a 1.25-point-per-game postseason player who has scored as many as 55 goals in a regular season should cost a king’s ransom. In many ways, I would imagine the package deal is similar to Pettersson though I’m not sure if it would cost as much considering Rantanen is a pending UFA. I still think Mercer goes, and I can’t imagine Carolina wouldn’t want to add one of the Devils’ defense prospects as well as a high pick in either of the next two drafts. Figure, they sent out Necas — who is 26 — Drury, and three draft picks for Rantanen and Hall. They’re going to want substance in return, especially from a division rival who they’re likely to meet in round one this season and be a contender with for the Metro Division for years to come. Again, I do it without thinking twice.

Devils Should Go Big Game Hunting This Trade Deadline

With Jack Hughes presumably hitting LTIR, now is the time for Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald to make a significant splash.

Elias Pettersson

Mikko Rantanen

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