As much as I’m still disappointed about the Devils’ postseason departure, I really am quite excited to continue diving into the off-season content I’ve been looking forward to for a while. From now until early July, I’m going to be hard at work providing as much content as I can throw at you in every way imaginable, from free agency to trades to the NHL Entry Draft.
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A few days ago, I put out a Q&A request on the main social media platforms I’m involved in — Twitter, Discord, and Reddit.
In answering all of your questions, for which I am grateful to all of you for submitting, I have to break down the Q&A into a few different articles. I can’t say I expected as many questions as I got, but I’m sure honored to be answering them.
Thank you again for all the submissions, and let’s get into it!
Q: Dark horse/hidden gem FA signings and/or trade targets you’d like to see this summer? (@G_Hohl7 on Twitter)
A: I’ll do one hidden gem free agent target and one hidden gem trade target who I think would be excellent additions.
I’ve done a few bargain-bin free agent targets, but the one who stands out to me as a hidden gem is Cole Koepke. He’s likely getting below $1 million AAV on his next deal, and considering his age (27), he would be a superb flyer to take. He’s fast, explosive, active on the forecheck, and is solid defensively. For a fourth-liner, I’m not sure there’s a better option available.
For a trade target, I’ll say Martin Necas. He very recently appeared on trade boards on the back of reports that he was not happy with his time in Colorado. Stylistically, there are few players who fit better in the Devils’ top-six. He’s obviously unbelievably fast and unbelievably skilled, is meaner than he gets credit for, and would provide the Devils with a surge in rush offense. Plus, wouldn’t it be fun to add another former Hurricane to play against them in the postseason? The only reason I’m labeling him as a “dark horse” is that I think it’s unlikely the Devils target him in the first place.
Q: What odds would you give on the following players being on the team next year? Casey, Mercer, Haula, Dougie (u/Firefly_Forever1 on Reddit)
A: Great question! Here are my thoughts:
Seamus Casey: 15%
I think there is certainly writing on the wall for Seamus Casey to have already played in his last game for the Devils. He’s likely an NHL-level defenseman on 25 or so teams, but New Jersey simply doesn’t have room for him to play consistently, especially considering the Simon Nemec in the playoffs of it all.
For his sake, and the team’s, Casey should probably be moved. I’m sure there would be no shortage of interest for the youngster. Tom Fitzgerald’s penchant for size probably diminishes his in-organization value a little bit, and it’s entirely possible that he is moved for lesser players than he probably should be as a result.
Dawson Mercer: 50%
Dawson Mercer is a tough one. On one hand, he made an appearance on the Sportsnet trade board and obviously would garner a ton of looks were he truly available. On the other hand, I think he only gets moved if in a package for a true top-six talent.
Mercer gets a worse rap than he should — he’s a fine player, and 35-50 points from a $4 million AAV player is absolutely reasonable, especially in this cap climate. When playing with Jack and Bratt, he is an excellent complement. When away from playdrivers, he’s not quite as effective.
With the Devils probably in the market for truly elite top-six talent, Mercer would almost definitely be included in any sort of package going the other way, I think. The problem there is getting a team that is willing to part with that elite talent.
Erik Haula: 20%
The Devils have an obvious need to shed cap space if they want to really make an impact this off-season. While Ondrej Palat is the obvious candidate there (and I have been told by various people that the Devils shouldn’t have much of an issue shedding his entire $6 million cap hit), Erik Haula is the clear #2 candidate.
Haula, until he switched to the wing, was atrocious. Even when he did make that switch, it was clear that he was an odd man out for this season and would probably be moved. I think he has legit value (early-mid round pick, maybe?), particularly to teams in need of a veteran.
Dougie Hamilton: 90%
As much as it would be nice to move off the salary, I don’t think Dougie Hamilton is going anywhere. Tom Fitzgerald noted that they were pretty happy with the defense corps, and I have to imagine that the only additions to said corps would be if players like Johnathan Kovacevic and Brenden Dillon are actually out long-term. Kovacevic will obviously start the season on LTIR, and who really knows with Dillon?
I don’t think the Devils want to get rid of one of their upper-echelon puck-moving defensemen, especially with Brad Shaw coming in, who has a history of getting blueliners to re-find their game.
Q: Like Cotter and Kovacevic were: Which bargain bin younger players would you target via trade that have 1+ years left on their deal? (u/septimus29 on Reddit)
A: Number one on my list who would fit this bill is Lukas Reichel. I wrote about him not too long ago, but the Chicago Blackhawks are reportedly shopping the 23-year-old. He has one year left on his deal, worth $1.2 million, and he’s probably not going to command much of a raise on his next deal.
The on-ice impacts are pretty awful for him thus far in his career, but the microstatistics and obvious flashes of skill give me hope that he’s going to turn into the once highly-touted prospect he was. He was drafted 17th overall for a reason, right?
In particular, his skill in transition is already undeniable and would be a boon to the Devils’ third line, which is where I’d imagine he hypothetically plays. As Frank Seravalli noted, he’s going to be cheap to acquire. The Devils would be wise to target him, I think.
Q: We are 3 years into Jack’s 8 x $8m contract, and he’s had an upper body/shoulder injury at the end of each season. 1) How concerned are you that this will continue? 2) Through this point, are we really sure $8m AAV is a bargain if he’s 0/3 at finishing the season healthy? (@steviecroutons on Twitter)
A: 1) Entirely impossible to tell, but I have faith. Perhaps Greg Ackerman’s hire will have a positive impact, but even just knowing that at this point, Jack has to be doing some serious work to rehab and figure out how to really protect his shoulders is good enough for me to have less of a concern. I’m taking Tom Fitzgerald for his word here, in that they have no concern for this being an issue from hereon out.
As far as his value, we should still be positive that his $8M AAV contract is one of the biggest steals in the league. Injury history shouldn’t mean that the perception of the quality of the player suddenly diminishes when he’s healthy, too. He plays like a $14 million player — a shoulder injury doesn’t change that.
Q: Name 3-5 players worth acquiring (via trade or free agency) that are not on any “list of available players.” (@jtm0690 on Discord)
A: For the sake of keeping this post below a million words, I’ll hit you with three: Michael Bunting, Will Cuylle, and Emil Heineman.
The Nashville Predators should be looking to sell this off-season and commit to the rebuild they should have started a year ago. One name that could be on the list, but I haven’t heard anything about, is Michael Bunting. The 29-year-old winger has one year left on his $4.5 million AAV deal and is a bit of a proven commodity at this point while playing in an exclusively middle-six role.
In the past four seasons, Bunting has scored 19, 19, 23, and 23 goals, and has missed a grand total of 10 games. He’s a jerk on the ice, causing havoc in every shift and getting under the skin of the opposition. I’m not a proponent of acquiring a team full of guys who fit that bill, but I’m not opposed to adding one or two. Causing agitation from the opposition is a legit skill, in my opinion, especially when you’re also just… good at the whole hockey thing. There’s a reason why Brad Marchand, Tom Wilson, the Tkachuk brothers, and Sam Bennett are so coveted around the league. I don’t think Bunting is on the level of any of those guys, skill-wise, but he is right up there in terms of being a nuisance.
Re: him being good at the whole hockey thing, while his microstats with the Penguins were subpar at best, he’s always been strong in that facet of his game. He shoots at an above-average rate, is a strong passer, and has a knack for installing himself in front of the net. I feel as though it would be relatively easy to pry him away from Nashville, and maybe even get some retention on the deal.
The last two names are offer sheet options, as I genuinely think that is the best option for the Devils to truly upgrade their team without spending a ton.
Will Cuylle, in all likelihood, will remain where he is for quite a long time — he’s pretty much the quintessential New York Ranger, I think. The Rangers, though, are in a bit of a predicament cap-wise. As is, they currently have $8.4 million in space and have 19 contracts on the books. On paper, that may sound like a good bit of cash to play with, but the reality is a bit more complicated than that, considering they’re in desperate need of a defenseman who can play on the first pair. K’Andre Miller should, in theory, be that guy, but the front office has clearly soured on him.
They have a bunch of expiring RFA contracts in their system, most of whom I would be surprised if they didn’t want to bring back: Matt Rempe, Arthur Kaliyev, Zac Jones, Adam Edstrom, Matt Robertson, and of course, Miller and Cuylle. Most of the names on that list shouldn’t command anything significant, but the values add up. Rempe will be brought back, because… he will. Jones is a solid bottom-four guy and will likely return. Kaliyev was brought on last season, so I’d be surprised if he wasn’t renewed. Edstrom and Robertson are whatever, though I think Edstrom at least will return. That leaves Miller, who is likely going to be dealt, and Cuylle, who will be getting a significant raise from his ELC.
If I were the Devils, I’d have no qualm about offering Cuylle a contract worth right around $4.6 million. Unless the Rangers are able to shed some space with, say, Carson Soucy or Chris Kreider, they’re going to have a tough time matching that while staying under the cap threshold. The compensation there is just a second-round pick, which would be a steal for a power forward who just logged a 20-goal, 45-point campaign as a 23-year-old third-liner.
The Montreal Canadiens, meanwhile, have no cap issues whatsoever — their books, outside of perhaps Patrik Laine’s albatross contract, are pretty damn pristine. Enter Emil Heineman, a 23-year-old fourth-liner for them, who played in his first full NHL season and scored 10 goals and 18 total points in 62 games.
Heineman is certainly still developing, to be sure, but he is already extremely defensively mature. He has some skill in his game and an offensive ceiling he certainly hasn’t tapped into yet — his shot is genuinely very good (and he should use it more, as opposed to the 64 shots he put on net in those 62 games), and his skating is high-end. For someone who didn’t appear in 20 games and logged just over 11 minutes per game to rank in the 82nd percentile for speed bursts of 20+ mph is extremely impressive. His top speed is similarly ranked.
I feel as though it would get matched, but I would consider offering him a contract worth $2,340,037, the maximum amount for an offer sheet with a compensation of a third-round pick. A 23-year-old, up-and-coming left-winger with speed, defensive maturity, and some upside would be a great get for that price. I’d even go further than that if it meant getting Heineman on board, as I don’t think a second-rounder is unfair value for him at all.
Q: What is the air speed of an unladen swallow? (@thedondraper on Discord)
A: I’m afraid I can’t answer that without knowing if it is an African or European swallow. Sorry.
Q: What is your favorite fast food chicken nugget? Any favorite Pokémon from childhood? (u/septimus29 on Reddit)
A: Wendy’s, with a close second-place going to Burger King’s chicken fries. McDonald’s is the worst of the bunch to me — they always come out feeling plasticky. BK’s chicken fries would be first if they stayed warmer for longer, but once they cool off, they harden a little bit too much for my liking. Wendy’s nuggets make you feel just the right amount of gross after eating them.
I wasn’t much of a Pokémon kid growing up, but I was handed a nice-sized card collection from my cousin (which I later gave to one of my good buddies who collects them now) with a ton of cards. Regigigas was always my favorite, and I have literally no idea why. I think I have a total of 20 of them on my Pokémon Go account.
Q: It seems like we have a lot of “true” RW players on the roster/in the pipeline. Bratt, Timo, Arseni, Mercer, and Lenni are all players who’ve played the majority of their careers on the right side. Who do you think is getting moved to/staying on their offside? (u/blade430 on Reddit)
A: I think of the players listed, Mercer and Hameenaho are the only two who will probably never see time playing on the left side.
Bratt and Meier are dual-wingers who can play effectively on both sides of the ice — Meier himself noted that there isn’t really a difference between the two. They’re both talented enough to make it work. Bratt is much more of a right-winger nowadays, but the early portions of his career were spent on the left. Meier has flip-flopped throughout his tenure here.
Gritsyuk is the more interesting case study there, I think. Most right-wingers are playing on their strong side as right-handed shooters. He’s an exception to that generality, having played just about every game of his career on the right side despite being left-handed. Personally, I’d be shocked if he wasn’t playing on the right wing for his tenure in the NHL, but there’s certainly a chance he moves to his strong side as the ice gets faster than what he’s used to from the KHL. Playing on your strong side allows you to have more puck control along the boards, not having to worry about playing on your backhand to keep the puck to the perimeter when the time warrants it.
With all that said, I would say that the likeliest to play LW is Meier, with Bratt/Gritsyuk being able to do so if called upon.
Q: Seeing how well Timo played down the stretch in Jack’s absence, is it worth it to give Jack less ice time to increase Timo’s? (@4realhumanbeing on Twitter)
A: I don’t think there’s any reason for the Devils to limit the amount of ice time Jack Hughes gets, to be honest. As good as Timo Meier is and was down the stretch and in the playoffs, he still isn’t 1/10 the player that Jack is.
When you have a top-10 talent in the NHL, you better play him as much as you can.
Q: How do you think Sheldon’s coaching style affected the team’s performance? Do you think the team will continue to be more defensively focused? (@itiskl13 on Twitter)
A: I definitely think there’s a tangible difference in the way the Devils operated in both zones.
Defensively, the Devils employed a much safer breakout strategy under Sheldon Keefe than they did under Lindy Ruff. With Ruff, the strategy was basically just to get it up ice as quickly as possible. Forwards would streak into the neutral zone as fast as they could, with even the iota of a possibility of a fast break. With Keefe, though, the strategy is to play the puck backwards before breaking out. His catch phrase is “fight the panic,” something, as per Jack Han, he’s been saying throughout his coaching career. After a retrieval, players play the puck back into safety, usually at or below the Devils’ own goal line. From there, they execute safe breakout strategies to minimize defensive-zone turnovers.
This has a trickle-down effect in the way the Devils play offense, too. Ruff’s system was almost exclusively rush-based — the understanding there is that rush opportunities are typically the most dangerous, and focusing on those, considering the Devils’ speed in their core forwards, would result in the best offensive output. Because of Keefe’s slow breakout scheme, things are a bit more methodical. The Devils are more reliant on dumping and chasing than they have been in the past, and are less privy to fast-break plays.
I’m not sure I agree with the Devils being defensively focused, though, as I think that was more of an adjustment that Keefe made when he realized that the depth scoring was nonexistent and he’d have to try and win every game 2-1 rather than 4-2. His Maple Leafs teams were always more offense-oriented than defensively oriented, even if they were solid in their own end. I hope that he is encouraging GM Tom Fitzgerald to make moves that prioritize skill, speed, and scoring over moves that lean into the already-too-defensively-oriented path they’ve taken in the last two or so seasons.
That does it for the second part of the Q & A. As I said in the first part, if you haven’t seen your question answered yet, fret not! I’ll certainly get it answered in the next, and final, part. Thank you again for the submissions!
#playCaseyonthewing
Interesting point about Keefe adjusting the system due to depth. Let’s hope he’s in Fitz’s ear!