Devils' Free Agent Target Profile: Nikolaj Ehlers
There is no better target on July 1 than Nikolaj Ehlers for the New Jersey Devils.
As much as I’m still disappointed about the Devils’ postseason departure, I really am quite excited to dive into the off-season content I’ve been looking forward to for a while. I’ve already begun on my draft target series, in which I will be going into obscene depth about the players I think the Devils should have on their radar in *every* round of the draft, and now it’s time to rotate in some free-agency content. From now until early July, I’m going to be hard at work providing as much content as I can throw at you in every way imaginable.
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In the past two days, I have spoken of two center (or center-eligible) players the New Jersey Devils should target in free agency in Claude Giroux and Pius Suter. Now, it’s time to speak of what I would consider their most pressing need in a capable top-six forward to help drive offense.
Enter Nikolaj Ehlers, who I firmly believe to be the best target for the Devils come July 1.
Ehlers, 29, has spent his entire 10-year career with the Winnipeg Jets, blossoming into a truly underrated star in his tenure there. He finished this season with 24 goals and 39 assists for 63 points in 69 games, and has scored a total of 520 points in 674 games in those 10 years.
For the Devils, there is no doubt in my mind that this is the best fit in free agency — he fits every need the team has, from offensive playdriving with defensive sturdiness to being one of the speediest and most explosive skaters in the league. The former 9th Overall selection from the 2014 NHL Draft is a left-wing, and the writing has been on the wall for him to end his time with the Jets.
Evolving Hockey is projecting his next contract at 7 years for $8.88 million, so the Devils would likely need to move a couple players off the books in Ondrej Palat and Erik Haula — who should be gone anyway — to make the cap work. For Ehlers, though, it would be well worth the endeavor.
Offensive Play
Flat out, Ehlers is one of the most quietly effective playdrivers in the NHL. His transitional work is truly elite, being adept at maneuvering his way through coverage in the neutral zone, maintaining possession of the puck while crossing the blue line, and making plays happen through his zone entries. This boils down to a combination of two things: his elite hands and his elite skating.
Ehlers has a strong collection of dekes and dangles and a high offensive IQ, which allow him to pull out any and all moves dependent on the positioning of the defenders covering him. His footspeed is special to boot, with his acceleration ranking in the 86th percentile of the NHL and his top speed ranking in the 94th percentile. He gets to his top speed in just a few strides, and that top speed is in the upper echelon of the league.
This directly translates into his transitional aptitude and makes him a true threat off the rush. In particular, he is a better shooter than passer, which would work like a charm alongside Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt, two players who excel at playmaking. For a team that is in desperation for a greater threat off the rush, a player like Ehlers fits the bill perfectly.
There are no true weaknesses in Ehlers’ offensive game, outside of perhaps cycling the puck back to the point. However, he counteracts that “weakness” through keeping possession operating in the lower half of the O-zone, which inherently leads to more high-danger opportunities. He operates best in a sort of bumper position at 5v5, being able to position himself in high-danger areas for quick shots and finding one-touch opportunities to other members of the forward group on the ice while drawing in coverage in the center of the zone.
The Devils need a game-breaker to add to their core, in my opinion, and Ehlers is the perfect player in that regard.
Defensive Play
Ehlers has long-been falsely touted as a lazy, unengaged player in the defensive zone, but the stigma is untrue and he’s genuinely one of the hardest workers in all three zones. Generally speaking, he’s one of the most active players in the defensive zone in the league, with a solid understanding that, if he can outwork the opposing puck-carrier, he can get the puck back and turn it into an offensive chance.
His hard work ethic can occasionally result in getting himself drawn out of position a bit, overcommitting to coverage at times. His skating ability, though, usually results in a quick recovery if the opposition is unable to capitalize, and in general this isn’t as much a concern as many believe it to be, especially in a tightly-knit defensive scheme like the Devils have.
The transitional aptitude he has in his offensive game also shows in the defensive zone, as he excels at getting space between the defenders and himself in the D-zone with the puck on his stick, making him a near-automatic zone exit as well as a near-automatic zone entry. He rarely fumbles an opportunity to move the puck from zone to zone.
Despite the higher-profile price tag he’s likely going to command in free agency, Ehlers would be the unequivocal #1 target for me for the Devils. They’re in dire need of a speedster who can break the game open with any given play, and Ehlers is certainly that archetype. There is certainly an added plus in needing two additional cap dumps (Haula and Palat) to make the money work without having to sacrifice in other parts of the lineup.
Too expensive for a player in the back nine of his career. (Even if it is the 10th/11th hole). The last few years of that contract will look like Palat's current deal. And his numbers are not THAT elite to upset the apple cart of the team's unofficial pay scale. Personally, I think taking shots RFAs or short term deals at short term deals for vets is a better way to go.
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