Devils' Free Agent Target Profile: Matt Duchene
The Devils would be wise to take a look at the veteran forward on July 1.
As much as I’m still disappointed about the Devils’ postseason departure, I really am quite excited to dive into the off-season content I’ve been looking forward to for a while. I’ve already begun on my draft target series, in which I will be going into obscene depth about the players I think the Devils should have on their radar in *every* round of the draft, and now it’s time to rotate in some free-agency content. From now until early July, I’m going to be hard at work providing as much content as I can throw at you in every way imaginable.
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I have been pretty vocal about the New Jersey Devils’ need for either a third-line center capable of playing up in the lineup or a top-six winger who can slide to the middle if need be. While the more effective way to go about acquiring that type of player is likely via trade, there are a couple of names in the free agent class that present as intriguing options.
One free agent target I haven’t seen many people mention of is Matt Duchene, a current member of the Dallas Stars and perhaps an ideal target for the Devils on July 1.
Duchene has found great success in the past four years, logging a grand total of 120 goals and 289 points in 311 games. For that point production, one might expect a high cap hit in free agency, but the 34-year-old is projected to receive a two-year, $5.9 million AAV deal as per Evolving Hockey’s model.
Personally, I’d be pretty elated if the Devils were able to land the veteran at that price point, especially considering he checks the boxes for positional need — he has played anywhere from first-line winger to third-line center with the Stars in the last couple of campaigns, in all of which he has found success.
Before they acquired Mikko Rantanen, I’d have said that it was extremely likely that Duchene stayed put in Dallas. With Rantanen’s $12 million AAV contract and Wyatt Johnston’s $8.4 million AAV extension kicking in next season, though, the Stars are in a bit of a predicament — they have fewer than $6 million to spend with only 15 contracts signed for next season. Unless Duchene takes a ridiculously friendly, near-league-minimum contract to stay put in the Lone Star state, he’s likely looking elsewhere, regardless of how much he enjoys playing for the Stars.
Offensive Play
Honestly, there isn’t a single thing Duchene doesn’t do well in terms of his offensive game, so let’s break it down facet by facet.
Duchene’s shooting abilities speak for themselves on paper, with a 43-goal season to his name and 10 20-goal seasons in his 14-year career (seven of which were 25-goal slates). He shoots at an above-average rate, placing himself smartly in the slot to get off a ton of chances from quality areas of the ice. In his career, he has averaged 2.39 shots per game and 4.17 shot attempts per game. Because of his positioning in the offensive zone, where he loves to stay around the slot, many of these shots are scoring chances and high-danger chances.
He certainly is more effective when playmaking, though, in my opinion, and the data suggests the same. Duchene is outright one of the best players in the NHL at finding open players with tape-to-tape, perfectly placed passes. Duchene averaged 2.381 high-danger passes per 60 minutes in the 2024-25 regular season, juuuuuust below Connor McDavid, who had 2.388. That’s pretty damn good company to be in.
The only two players with more primary shot assists per 60 minutes than Duchene this season? Nathan MacKinnon and Leon Draisaitl. Again, pretty damn good company.
This playmaking aptitude makes Duchene threatening on both the cycle and the rush. He excels at maintaining puck possession through heady passes, knowing when to send the puck back to the point and when to send it down-low. He often parks himself in a sort of bumper position, readying himself in the slot, drawing defenders in, and smartly sending passes to open linemates instead of shooting the puck into traffic. Few players in the league can call themselves better facilitators than Duchene.
Duchene is also incredible in transition, by virtue of the combination of his silky hands and surprisingly explosive skating. Despite his below-average top speed (21.97 mph, whereas league-average was 22.18), he placed in the 87th percentile in terms of speed bursts of 20+ mph. For a 34-year-old player to be skating with that acceleration is remarkable, and it’s been a consistent factor in why he’s been so successful throughout his career. Since NHL EDGE became a tool, Duchene has ranked in the 79th, 59th, 89th, and now 87th percentile in speed bursts, and his top speed has stayed right around the 22mph mark. To me, this is a clear indicator that his legs will be just fine despite his veteran status, for the foreseeable future at least. Of course, this is also why he’s so effective playing off the rush.
Defensive Play
On a macro-scale, Duchene’s defensive numbers are pretty uninspiring. He has below-average impacts at 5v5 and simply isn’t used on the penalty kill. On a micro-scale, though, the truth is that he does a lot of the little things right.
I’m a believer in the ideology that faceoffs only matter in specific situations — overtime and special teams — but Duchene is excellent in the dot (career 53.4%) if that’s your thing. It wouldn’t hurt to have him play wing to Jack Hughes and take all the faceoffs before sliding back into his position.
When actually operating in the D-zone, Duchene is a pretty active player. He is an above-average player in retrievals, touching the puck more often than the average forward in the league. A fallout of this, though, is that he’s more prone to immediate turnovers once he “retrieves” the puck.
Again, Duchene’s transitional work is apparent on the defensive front, excelling at exiting the defensive zone with possession of the puck. Once he gains possession, he is largely able to take the puck from zone to zone, turning defensive retrievals into offensive possessions often.
To me, the disparity between his microstatistical profile and his on-ice impacts on the defensive front says that his positioning is a weakness. The above-average retrieval rate, when in conjunction with this thought process, would mean that he gets caught overcommitting. Considering the system that the Devils employ in the defensive zone, a hybrid scheme in which there is constant movement and hand-offs in coverage, this may be an issue.
The thing is, though, that the Devils flat-out need more offensive juice in their lineup. The top dogs need to play with real talent rather than being forced into playing with Ondrej Palat, and the team just needs to score more. On the defensive front, the Devils’ roster is legitimately pretty stacked. I honestly can’t name a player in the lineup who is bad defensively outside of perhaps Jesper Bratt (discounting non-regulars Seamus Casey and Simon Nemec), and we all know just how impactful Bratt is as a player. Duchene would be of similar value, in my opinion; perhaps not on a raw scale, but conceptually.
Honestly, the more I wrote about Duchene, the more on board I have become with acquiring him in free agency. If that contract projection is true, and Duchene isn’t looking for a long-term deal, I’m not sure there’s a more versatile or fitting player for the Devils to go after.
Again, it’s very easy to say “Oh, Duchene is for sure just going to re-sign with the Stars, it’s very clear that’s where he wants to be,” but the reality is that, with the moves the Stars made during the season, the cap might just not work out. They don’t even have cap dumps to be rid of, with all of Jamie Benn, Mikael Granlund, and Cody Ceci coming off the books. Perhaps Tyler Seguin gets bought out or traded, but I doubt anyone would be interested in taking on his near-$10 million contract. The writing is on the wall for Duchene to leave Dallas, and the Devils would be extremely wise to have him as a priority target in free agency.
I would absolutely love to have and welcome Duchene. It all hinges on the Palat deal. If the Devils can find a taker for him, than this is a slam dunk move.