Detailing How the Devils Can Get Past the Hurricanes in Round One, Part 2
Part two of going in-depth on how the Devils can beat their division rival in R1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Yesterday, I detailed two parts of the Hurricanes’ game that the Devils can take advantage of — volume shooting versus Jacob Markstrom and shutting down the Hurricanes’ singular plus-finishing forward.
Today, I have two more ideas. Let’s not waste any time:
Force Play Into the Mid-Offensive Zone
Historically, goaltending has been a major issue for the Hurricanes. This season, things have been a bit different, as Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov have combined to put up +20.0 goals saved above expected (GSAx). In particular, they’ve excelled at saving shots from the point — which sounds ridiculous but they have been better than average at it — and saving in-tight, high-danger chances.
That leaves the middle zone, where they have actually gotten subpar goaltending this season, particularly from Kochetkov.
I’m operating under the assumption that the Hurricanes will be alternating starts between Andersen and Kochetkov, as they have since the former returned from injury. Last season, their issue was that Andersen couldn’t take the workload of an every-game starter in the postseason and he eventually burned out. I’d be shocked if they took that route again.
This leaves an opening for the Devils to take advantage of Kochetkov’s generally lackluster ability to make saves on medium-danger shots from the upper slot, where he has a save percentage (SV%) of .864 — 0.014 below expected. 0.014 might not sound like a lot, but keep in mind that’s the difference between a .900 and a .886 — in hockey, that’s huge.
The only problem there is that, well, Carolina’s defense is the best in the NHL at preventing anything from getting to the middle. In fact, the only area of the ice where the Hurricanes are allowing more chances than average is right in front of the net, where their goaltenders have been unbelievably good. Andersen’s .833 HDSV% is .148 higher than expected (!!!), and Kochetkov’s .779 is .099 higher (!).
I will say that Andersen can struggle at times from shots from the very top of the middle of the offensive zone, particularly when there is a screen of any sort — his low-danger save percentage of .960 might sound impressive, but his expected low-danger save percentage is .970. It’s been, by far, the worst aspect of his game. If the Devils are unable to get to the middle, screening Andersen and shooting from the point might not be such a bad idea, even if it’s generally frowned upon to pepper goaltenders with low-danger shots as opposed to high-danger ones.
Get the First Goal
I feel like this is an obvious one for morale reasons, but there’s also statistical reasoning for wanting to score first against the Hurricanes.
It’s no secret that the Hurricanes are (and have been) one of the best home teams in the NHL. Carolina head coach Rod Brind’Amour is one of the savvier coaches at matchups, and with the last change, he has the distinct advantage of putting his shutdown line (the one with Jordan Staal, arguably the league’s best defensive forward) against his competition’s best line and neutralizing them. We all saw it happen in 2022-23, where they completely dismantled the Jack Hughes line.
As a result, his other lines are able to pick apart their competition, and their home record is stellar because of it — 30-8-1 (.789 win percentage). Breaking it down further, though, there are some jarring splits dependent on who scores first. When the Hurricanes score first, they’re 18-2-0 (.900) at home. When their opponents score first, they’re 12-6-1 (.667).
Contrast that with the Devils, who are one of the league’s very best road teams when it comes to maintaining leads when they score first. In that case, the Devils are 18-4-1 (.818). If any team can challenge the status quo for the Hurricanes at home, it’s probably New Jersey.
Now, let’s take a look at the splits when the Devils are the home team — when the Devils score first, they’re 10-3-2 (.769). When on the road, the Hurricanes are 5-14-2 (.263) when their opponent scores first.
Sounds like a recipe for success, don’t you think? Let’s go a step further.
Let’s operate under the assumption that the Devils hold the lead after they score first for a second, at least for one period. In road games, when the Devils maintain a lead after one period, they are undefeated in regulation, going 16-0-1. The Hurricanes’ record, when at home and trailing after one period, is 5-4-1 (.555). All of a sudden, their menacing home dominance doesn’t seem so out of reach, right?
Now, at home, when the Devils lead after one, they’re 5-2-0 (.714). It’s embarrassing that they’ve only had that situation occur seven times, but the results are promising nonetheless. The Hurricanes, meanwhile, are 4-13-2 (.235) in games on the road when they trail after one.
Again, that’s a recipe for success. Getting the first goal, no matter how it happens, is paramount.
There you have it — four things the Devils can do to better ensure they exit round one with a winning record. As I briefly mentioned in Part 1, I genuinely believe that the Devils would be able to cruise past the winner of the impending Washington Capitals vs. Montreal Canadiens matchup should they get out of their Round One matchup versus the Hurricanes. Carolina is, by far, the most threatening of those three teams.