Detailing How the Devils Can Get Past the Hurricanes in Round One, Part 1
The Devils are practically locked into a R1 matchup against the Carolina Hurricanes. How can they win?
Obviously, nothing is solidified quite yet, but the writing is on the wall for the Devils to be playing the Carolina Hurricanes in Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs this season. Barring the New York Rangers winning out and the Devils losing the rest of their games, or the Hurricanes winning out while the Capitals lose the rest of their games, the Devils will be playing the Hurricanes.
The Hurricanes are quite an interesting team — on paper, they were much more threatening from an offensive standpoint with Martin Necas or Mikko Rantanen in the lineup, but their underlying statistics haven’t changed at all with Logan Stankoven in instead of those two. They’re still the same old juggernaut at 5v5 that controls the flow of play better than any other team in the league. In fact, I’d argue that Stankoven is a better stylistic fit than either of Necas or Rantanen and that Stankoven only exacerbates what makes the Hurricanes such a nuisance to play against.
The main difference between them this season and years prior, in my opinion, has been their lack of effectiveness on the power play — they’re operating at 18.88% this year as opposed to the 26.91% they chugged along at last season, the 19.76% in 2022-23, and the 21.98% in 2021-22. That is where Rantanen and Necas would help them the most.
The Devils are in an interesting position in relation to the Hurricanes, too. Previous to this season, I’d have said that the Hurricanes’ system was built to dismantle the run-and-gun style of hockey that the Lindy Ruff-led Devils were playing. I’m not so sure that Keefe’s system is the same — conservative breakouts may bode well for the Devils against Carolina.
On the season, the Devils went 2-2-0 against the Hurricanes and sported an expected goal share (xGF%) of 48.55%. There are only four teams who surpassed a 50% goal share against Carolina this season so far, and the Devils rank as 7th best in that regard, so I’m counting that as a plus.
I’m of the opinion that the Hurricanes are the second-best team in the Eastern Conference behind the Florida Panthers (when healthy), so if the Devils are able to get past them in round one, I think there’s a legitimate chance that they can make it to the ECF. It’s a tough task for sure, but one the Devils may be able to pull off if they play their cards right. So, what exactly can they do to best the Hurricanes in Round One?
Let Carolina Shoot
It might be a strange ideology to let a team get shots off, but hear me out.
The Devils’ Game 1 starting goaltender, I assume, will be Jacob Markstrom. Markstrom is a type of goaltender who, if he sees more volume, plays exponentially better. Let’s look at the stat splits to prove this point.
In the 13 games that Markstrom has played where he has seen at least 30 shots on goal, he has a goals saved above expected (GSAx) of +5.54 and has a save percentage (SV%) of .920. The Devils are 7-3-3 (.700 win percentage) in those games.
In the other 34 games, where Markstrom has seen fewer than 30 shots on goal, his GSAx plummets to just +0.04 (league average), and his SV% drops all the way to .894. The Devils are 19-11-3 (.633) in those games. If we take out the stretch of seven games in December in which they allowed 20 or fewer shots, his SV% in the remaining 27 games in this sample is .886, and his GSAx is a pretty awful -7.61. That’s not a starting-caliber goalie.
The solution, then, is a simple one — let the Hurricanes get shots off. I’m not advocating for them to get high-danger looks, though Markstrom’s calling card has always been his high-danger save percentage (HDSV%), but if they can keep play to the perimeter and force the Hurricanes into low-percentage shots at volume, the Devils will probably be better off for it.
The Hurricanes are the shootiest team in the NHL, thankfully. Their 70.11 shot attempts per hour is handily first in the league (second is Florida at 66), and their 31.6 shots on goal are narrowly second-place to the Edmonton Oilers, who sit at 31.91. They’re a rebound-driven team, generating a ton of volume from the point and sitting at the netfront to try and jam home the rebounds:
Of course, you don’t want to see the Devils giving up that many high-danger looks, but if they’re able to stymy that while the Hurricanes maintain their system of shooting from the point, there’s no reason to believe that the Devils can’t take advantage of that with Markstrom in the net.
Shut Down… Jack Roslovic?
The Hurricanes’ issue for a very, very long time has been that they have been generally unable to best great goaltenders through sheer finishing talent. Outshooting, out-chancing, and out-xGing opponents is all fine and dandy, but if there’s nothing to show for it then who cares?
That’s what made the Rangers such an effective team against the Hurricanes — Igor Shesterkin, for my money still the best goalie in the league, was able to singlehandedly prevent them from getting goals because their finishing talent just wasn’t there.
Flash forward to now, and I don’t think that problem has dissipated at all, especially post-deadline. They had a plus-finisher in Rantanen but were forced to let him go to the Stars.
The Hurricanes now have just three forwards scoring at an above-expected rate at 5v5: Jack Roslovic, Sebastian Aho, and Mark Jankowski. Referees generally put their whistles away for the playoffs unless there is an obvious infraction, so this becomes even more important.
I’m skeptical of Jankowski’s shooting bender — he’s shooting 50% with Carolina, so he isn’t as much of a concern for me. Aho has barely scored above average, logging 13 5v5 goals on 12.76 individual expected goals (ixG). That leaves Roslovic, who has been their only true finishing talent — he’s scored 18 5v5 goals on 11.70 ixG.
Andrei Svechnikov is likely due for some resurgence, as he’s only scored five 5v5 goals this season on 12.57 ixG, but he’s always been a poorly finishing player relative to what he generates. Seth Jarvis has finished well-below expected — 12 goals on 15.46 ixG — as have Jordan Staal (10 on 13.3), Jackson Blake (10 on 14.36), and Eric Robinson (12 on 13.55).
Take Roslovic out of the picture, and what you’re left with is a team full of players who generate a ton of looks but are largely unable to finish them. Combine that with the fact that Markstrom is a goalie who does his best work when he sees a lot of volume, and there’s a legitimate chance that the Devils could give them a run for their money. After all, goaltending is what sank them two seasons ago against the Hurricanes more than their play itself, and it’s what’s held the Hurricanes back from salvation in every playoff appearance they’ve had in recent memory.
Tomorrow, I’ll delve into a couple more ways the Devils can beat the Hurricanes in round one, as it looks to be a lock for a first-round matchup at this point.
don't get my hopes up.