4 Takeaways from the Devils’ Game Two Loss
The Devils were unable to get a victory in Carolina, but there were still some positive takeaways from the game.
Last night, the New Jersey Devils fell to the Carolina Hurricanes in Game Two of the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, dropping to 0-2 in the series.
I can’t say this wasn’t an expected outcome, with the Hurricanes being one of the league’s most dominant forces at home and the Devils now missing Luke Hughes and Brenden Dillon on top of the usual suspects (normally, I’d have said Dillon’s absence would be a net positive, but when his replacement is Dennis Cholowski, that’s an issue). Despite the loss, though, the game script was completely different to Game One’s decimation. The Devils were in it all game, and the two-goal difference in box score certainly does not do the effort justice.
With all that in mind, let’s talk about four takeaways — two positive, two negative — from the Devils’ loss last night.
Positive #1: A Well-Fought, Even Game
As I mentioned in the intro, the Devils were in it all game. Right from the get go it was clear that the team was going to put up a fight for a full 60 minutes, logging the first goal of the game — that usually results in a victory, looking at the regular season splits for both the Hurricanes and Devils — and engaging in a back-and-forth affair for the remainder of the game. They had a rough 10 minutes or so in the second period in which they gave up both Hurricanes goals, but that’s more an attribution to the next bullet point than this one.
On the whole, NaturalStatTrick has Carolina out-xG-ing the Devils 5.1 to 4.51, but also lists the empty net goal as about 0.9 xG. Excluding that, then, the Devils held the xG advantage 4.51-4.20 — pretty much dead even, slightly leaning in the Devils’ favor. Carolina held the advantage in shots (28-26), shot attempts (69-60), scoring chances (40-30), and high-danger chances (17-14), but those were relatively even and the high-danger chances for the Devils were more dangerous than the high-danger chances for Carolina.
The goaltending duel was something to see, too, though I would argue that it’s safe to say that Freddie Andersen outplayed Jacob Markstrom by a fair bit. That isn’t to say Markstrom played poorly — far from it, saving +2.20 goals above expected — but Andersen was lights out, saving with a goals saved above expected (GSAx) of +3.51 and several high-danger, point-blank robberies. The overarching point here is that the game could have been a blowout in either direction, but the goalies were (relatively) evenly matched, just as much as the teams were.
Negative #1: Power-Play Woes Loom Large
If there was one exception to the “the Devils fought hard all game” ideology, it was their effort on the man advantage — at least the first two attempts at it.
New Jersey was only able to produce 0.58 xG on the two attempts in the second period and were outscored 1-0 in that time. Jordan Martinook’s shot was absolutely disgusting, and I don’t blame Markstrom for missing it, but the point stands that losing the goal share on your own power play is unacceptable, particularly in postseason hockey. The Devils only generated five shot attempts and three shots on goal, but honestly by the eye test it seemed like much less than that. They struggled to enter the zone, they struggled to complete passes, and they struggled to make anything look remotely dangerous.
Their last attempt, in the third period, was by far their best, generating a ton of action. In just two minutes, the Devils were able to generate seven shot attempts, four of which were on goal, as well as six scoring chances, four of which were high-danger. All in all, that resulted in a stellar 1.21 xG. The only problem there? They didn’t pot a goal — the fancies are nice and all but at some point the results need to follow suit, especially in crunch time in the playoffs.
The penalty kill was not the issue at all for the Devils; they were actually quite good. In three attempts, the Hurricanes were only able to muster 0.67 xG and one singular shot. That, right there, needs to be kept up if the Devils want to get anything done at home in these next two games.
Positive #2: Bratt Has Emerged as a Superstar
I’ve grown so tired of defending Jesper Bratt from the chowderheaded part of the fanbase that thinks he is incapable of performing in a postseason environment, but here I am.
My least favorite sector of people are those who attribute Bratt’s (lack of) size and “lack of” physicality (which is a miscalculation of the player) to a perceived lack of playoff aptitude. He’s largely put that to rest, though, with his performances in the first two games of the series, and particularly his performance last night.
I don’t think there’s a single argument to be made about how Bratt “doesn’t get in the dirty areas of the ice” or “shies away from using the body” or “doesn’t have what it takes” anymore. He adopted a lot of what Carolina brings to the table in this series, participating aggressively on the forecheck and excelling in the small areas of the ice in tight coverage. There’s a misconception from that part of the fanbase that his shiftiness is an aversion to physical play, but I think he’s come a long way in the past couple of seasons in that regard and absolutely does not shy away from using his frame to create separation, both between himself as the puck carrier and the defender covering him and on the forecheck between the puck and his man.
Last night was no exception to this notion, with Bratt firmly cementing himself as one of the Devils’ most active players in engaging in the “dirty areas” of the ice all night long. This activity and tenacity showed up in the underlying statistics as well, with the Swede having tied for the most shots (3) as well as the most individual expected goals (ixG) by far (0.55) at 5v5. He was rewarded for his genuinely stellar play with the Devils’ lone goal, and unsurprisingly led the team in GameScore.
Anyone who says Bratt isn’t a playoff performer is simply clueless — there’s no working around that.
Negative #2: Depth Exposed (Again)
Going into the game with Cholowski and Simon Nemec as their third pair was worrisome to say the least — both of them have been atrocious this season (and yes, I still think Nemec is the Devils’ best prospect). Unsurprisingly, that pairing got decimated at 5v5. Cholowski logged just 9:16 of 5v5 time in the game, and in that time, the Devils controlled just 32.34% of the expected goal share (xGF%). They were out-chanced 7-5 and out high-danger-chanced 3-1.
Nemec, who logged 11:49, also got destroyed. With him on the ice, the Devils held an xGF% of just 29.00%, getting out-chanced 12-6 and out high-danger-chanced 6-2. Shot attempts were 20-13 in favor of the Hurricanes with him on the ice and the season-long story of him being unable to get the puck out of the zone was on full display yet again. He did have one heady, stellar, cross-ice pass to Nate Bastian of all players, but Bastian shockingly sent it directly to Andersen’s chest.
The Devils’ fourth line got obliterated too, and logged much, much more time than they should have. At 5v5, Justin Dowling logged 12:37, more time than any forward not named Jesper Bratt, Erik Haula, and Dawson Mercer. Bastian logged 12:16, more time than any forward besides those three and Timo Meier. That, in a vacuum, is unacceptable, but when you factor in how awful they were on top of it, it becomes outright perplexing.
With Dowling on the ice, Carolina held a 22-10 shot attempt advantage, a 16-7 scoring chance advantage, and a 9-2 high-danger chance advantage. That culminated in the Devils generating just 26.62% of the xGF%. The story with Bastian was much of the same, with the stats above being far and away controlled by the Hurricanes: shot attempts were 23-10, scoring chances were 17-7, and high-danger chances were 10-3. It’s mind-boggling as to why they were gifted with so much ice time.
The rest of the Devils’ depth players in this game were outplayed, too, with no real deviations to that rule.
This all makes it all the more important to isolate Meier, Hischier, and Bratt from one another when playing in Carolina. The depth options simply get outmatched by the Hurricanes and it’s important to have three viable lines against a team that deep.
There are other minor takeaways that come to mind — Meier’s finishing woes despite playing well, Dougie Hamilton’s continued struggles, and the success of the Devils’ defensive defenseman — but these are my four main thoughts the morning after the loss.
Game Three isn’t until Friday, so hopefully the Devils will make a couple adjustments and regain Luke Hughes at minimum.
I think Keefe praised the Dowling line in the post game interview. I genuinely wonder what he was watching.