3 Takeaways from the Devils’ 3-2 Win Over Carolina
Quickly reflecting on a few things from the Devils' Game Three victory at home.
The New Jersey Devils headed home for a playoff matchup for the first time since the 2022-23 season, bringing with them a 0-2 series deficit against a tough Carolina Hurricanes team. The Devils brought their A-game, though, outplaying the Hurricanes for a full 60 minutes before the game was sent to OT and beyond.
Overtime was where the Devils truly shone, keeping the Hurricanes to just three shots on goal in the extra periods. They held the scoring chance advantage 14-4 and the high-danger chance advantage 3-0 in that time, astoundingly keeping Carolina to just 0.18 xG while producing 1.09 (and the game-winner). It was an excellent effort from a depleted Devils team, and it has me confident in their play for the rest of the matchup. I think Game One caught them by surprise, but they’ve largely been the better team otherwise.
With that in mind, let’s talk about a few things from Game Three:
1. Siegenthaler In, Kovacevic Out
The Devils gained back their top defensive defenseman (and arguably the top defensive defenseman in the NHL) last night in Jonas Siegenthaler. It came as somewhat of a surprise, as he wasn’t expected to make this quick a recovery; though, perhaps he still isn’t operating at 100%.
Siegenthaler played well, too, logging over 27 minutes in his first game since February 4th and primarily matching up (and subsequently neutering the offensive hopes of) the Hurricanes’ stars. He and Dougie Hamilton were hard-matched against the Seth Jarvis, Sebastian Aho, and Jackson Blake line after the second period, and they successfully held that trio to less than 0.2 xGA in the 9:11 they played together. That defensive aptitude against the Hurricanes’ best is exactly what the Devils needed to accomplish.
Overall, the Hurricanes only managed 0.54 xG against the Devils in the 25:33 that Siegenthaler was on the ice at 5v5. I can’t stress enough how important it is for them to have their top shutdown defender back from a long-term injury right now, given that they’ve been down two of their mainstays, Brenden Dillon and Luke Hughes. His simply being in the lineup over Dennis Cholowski and Seamus Casey is a boon, considering the style of hockey Carolina employs and how either of those two would get eaten alive by their voracious forecheck.
Thank the Hockey Gods that Siegenthaler is back, too, because the Devils lost their other defensive stalwart, Johnathan Kovacevic, to injury in the first period.
Yep. Another injury on the Devils’ backend in just three games. There’s been no update on what kind of injury it is, nor how long he’s going to be out, but he was unable to play anything more than the 6:00 he logged in the first. Yikes.
2. Simon Nemec Plays Hero
Last night, Simon Nemec played unequivocally the best game of his young career, and there couldn’t have been a better time for it.
Before we deep-dive into the mechanics of the game-winning, double-overtime goal, I just want to point out his impressive underlying statistics for the game. In his 22:39 of 5v5 time, where he was mostly matched up against the Hurricanes’ best offensive d-pairing (Shayne Gostisbehere and Sean Walker) and their second line (Andrei Svechnikov, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, and Jordan Martinook), he managed an expected goal share (xGF%) of 59.14%. With Nemec on the ice, the Devils controlled 55.17% of the scoring chances and 54.55% of the high-danger scoring chances at 5v5. For a 21-year-old having a godawful season to put up these kinds of numbers against the most harrowing style of hockey he could possibly play against is undeniably impressive.
Now, to delve a bit into Nemec’s goal, because it’s a testament to what I’ve been saying since he was drafted, and is a prime example of exactly why I had him ranked #1 in the Devils’ pipeline. It’s also why I’ve been such a staunch defender of his playstyle, which has been generally misconstrued as “lazy” just because people don’t really know what they’re watching all the time.
The subtle manipulations in Nemec’s game simply cannot be taught. One doesn’t just teach a player to be smarter and more manipulative with the puck, and last night’s goal was no exception to that rule.
There is a clear step-by-step process to the goal here: 1) you can see his head as he notices that Carolina is in the midst of a change, which effectively means that he’s just in a one-on-one situation with Gostisbehere, 2) Nemec identifies that Gostisbehere (and the rest of the Hurricanes) are anticipating a dump-in, because of how the Devils are positioned and the fact that it’s a defenseman with the puck, 3) Nemec leans into that ideology, positioning the puck on his stick as though it were going to be a dump-in and quickly looking down at the puck, which is a tell-tale mechanic of dumping the puck in, 4) pulling it back to execute a nice deke around Gostisbehere and firing it home. It’s just awesome, awesome stuff from the 21-year-old.
When he’s in his prime, he’s going to be a #2-3 defenseman who, even though he probably won’t put up a ton of points, will be a dangerous two-way impact player by virtue of these constant manipulations. Nemec executes this kind of stuff on a shift-to-shift basis, and as his confidence continues to grow, it’s only going to become more obvious.
3. Choosing Their Matchups
With the Devils at home, Sheldon Keefe was able to pick and choose who got matched up against whom, and you could see the immediate impact it made in this game.
For one, Nico Hischier and his line were getting practically all of their ice time against the NHL’s best 5-man shutdown group when they played in Carolina: Jaccob Slavin, Brent Burns, Jordan Staal, Jordan Martinook, and Logan Stankoven. At home, though, Keefe matched them up against the Jalen Chatfield—Dmitry Orlov pairing, as well as giving him and his line the task of neutralizing the Sebastian Aho line. This worked exceptionally well, as Hischier dominated the competition (as a superior player should). With Nico on the ice, the Devils controlled 58.76% of the xG, and it’s a direct result of him not having to play against that ridiculous shutdown group.
When Hischier wasn’t taking on the Hurricanes’ top line, Keefe gave that assignment to the Devils’ most dynamic (healthy) skater and playmaker: Jesper Bratt. More specifically, Bratt was given the minutes when the Hurricanes’ top line was out with their top defensive pairing (Slavin and Burns) — the ideology that the higher-skilled forward is better at getting around the strong defensive games of Slavin and Burns turned out to be the right call, as Bratt decimated that pairing. In the near-10 minutes they were hard-matched against each other at 5v5, Bratt and the Devils controlled just about 80% of the xG (!!!), out-xG’ing the Hurricanes ~2 to ~0.5. That’s truly remarkable stuff from who has been the Devils’ best player in this series.
Keefe and the Devils were able to get the matchups they wanted, leaning into the “My great players are better than your great players” thought process, and it fully worked out for them. I would anticipate a similar approach in Game Four, where Bratt, Hischier, and Timo Meier are getting the minutes against the Hurricanes’ biggest offensive threats, hemming them in their own zone because they’re simply… better.
Quick Hits:
Jacob Markstrom was excellent once again, saving +1.44 goals above expected, according to NaturalStatTrick. This brings him to +4.66 in the series. He has a .961 save percentage (SV%) at 5v5 in the series, and has given the Devils everything they need and more to keep in every game.
Timo Meier was on one as well last night, setting up the Devils’ first goal and providing the team with several other great looks — the one that Playoff Palat whiffed on comes to mind as exceptionally high-danger. He’s been awesome in this series, albeit snakebitten, and if/once the dam breaks, I would anticipate a flood of production.
The Devils only had five players with an xGF% of below 50% — all of the bottom-six forwards except Tomas Tatar (63.38%). The stars are doing what they need to do, but they’re going to need their third and fourth lines to step up a bit if they want to take home the series win.
Brian Dumoulin has stepped up as the Devils’ #1 defenseman this series. He logged 36:24 on the night, 31:03 at 5v5. In those 5v5 minutes, the Devils controlled 60.78% of the xG, 58.06% of the shots, and 56.25% of the high-danger chances. It’s rockstar stuff, and I’m happy to admit that I was wrong in my initial evaluation of the trade. I’d be thrilled if the Devils’ front office brought him back and somehow found a way to get off the Dillon contract instead.
If Game Four is anything like Games Two and Three, the series is going to be a hell of a lot closer than anticipated. With a fully healthy squad, there’s no doubt in my mind that this series goes the Devils’ way.
Game Four is tomorrow at 3:30 PM. Let’s go, Devils.