Consider checking out the Devils’ Advocates Podcast, which features weekly episodes chock-full of in-depth content and exciting guest appearances. They’ll be available on this Substack, but you can also listen on your favorite platforms at the following links:

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Yesterday, something happened that Devils fans have been asking for for several years: Dave Rogalski was let go from his position as New Jersey’s Goaltending Coach. He had been with the organization from 2020-21 on, presumably joining the organization at the request of Martin Brodeur, who worked with him in 2017-18 while he was in the front office of the St. Louis Blues.

It was a long time coming for Rogalski, who coached the Devils to the eighth-worst goals saved above expected (GSAx) in the NHL during his six-season tenure.

The real role of a goalie coach in the NHL has to do with physical and mental conditioning, becoming increasingly important as the league has continued to evolve and become more skilled. Physically, goalie coaches are there to reinforce ideas like the economy of motion and to ensure that a goalie is moving efficiently. Mentally, with the NHL environment becoming increasingly more difficult to predict whether a play is a shot or pass or predict the angle of a shot, goalie coaches are there to support and teach probabilities and analysis. According to an NHL.com article, goalie coaches also act as a quasi-confidant and sort of therapist for their players, who have the most difficult job in all of sports.

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All that fleshed out, there seems to be a fanbase-wide notion that Rogalski has failed the goaltenders who entered the Devils’ system. Of course, I wanted to put that logic to the test.

For context’s sake, I feel as though it is important to first define GSAx. With the NHL shifting more toward quality over volume as time passes, it’s increasingly difficult to rely on save percentage (SV%) as a meter to judge goaltenders. With volume down and quality up, average SV%s have been and will continue to be on the decline. Thus, judging a goaltender based on the quality of looks against him is the best route to go. GSAx does exactly that, subtracting the number of goals he allowed from the number of xG he faced. If a goalie allowed two goals on 3.5 xG, he would have a GSAx of +1.5 Conversely, if a goalie allowed three goals on 2.5 xG, he would have a GSAx of -0.5.

With that in mind, I gathered GSAx data from HockeyStats for a myriad of goaltenders who have played for both the Devils and other teams. I excluded goaltenders who played fewer than 10 games with New Jersey and fewer than 82 games in their career, so as to eliminate sample size issues. Of course, that takes away goalies like Eric Comrie, Jon Gillies, and Andrew Hammond, who played but a handful of games for the organization. Let’s check out the GSAx per 82 games of the goalies that fit that criteria:

Looking at the above chart is relatively damning. Two players — Jake Allen and Vitek Vanecek — were better than the rest of their career while they had Rogalski as a coach. Though, I will note that Vanecek was heavily buoyed by his 2022-23 season (+15.5); his GSAx/82 in 2023-24 with the Devils was -12.6. The remaining five goaltenders were worse by a significant margin.

Scott Wedgewood had a limited sample size leading up to his tenure with Rogalski there, but he was simply horrid while with the Devils while Rogalski was the goalie coach. Of course, he has been a strong goalie since, and he and Mackenzie Blackwood combined to win the William M. Jennings Trophy this past season. Blackwood is a tough evaluation, too, given that he was largely injured in his time with New Jersey after 2019-20 and likely never fully recovered until after leaving the organization for good. Perhaps there’s something to be said there for Rogalski’s conditioning and routines, though.

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My gut instinct is to say that the Devils’ goaltending woes up until 2024-25 were simply by virtue of employing subpar goalies, but it is pretty undeniable that their goalies in the aggregate have performed worse with Rogalski as their coach.

As such, in Sunny Mehta’s presumably meticulous evaluation of the Devils’ coaching staff, Rogalski just didn’t cut it anymore. The ostensibly calculated head honcho dissected the coaching staff as a whole, landing on Rogalski and Sergei Brylin as the odd men out, though it should be noted that Brylin will reportedly have a position elsewhere in the organization.

Other coaches, notably Sheldon Keefe, Brad Shaw, and Jeremy Colliton, will remain with the organization entering 2026-27.

Consider checking out the Devils’ Advocates Podcast, which features weekly episodes chock-full of in-depth content and exciting guest appearances. They’ll be available on this Substack, but you can also listen on your favorite platforms at the following links:

Spotify | Apple Podcasts

A week or so has gone by since the last installment of the Devils’ 2025-26 report card series, having already covered the top six forwards, bottom six forwards, and forwards who were not mainstays in the lineup. This time around, we’re getting the gradebook out for the six defensemen who ended the season in the starting lineup: Brenden Dillon, Dougie Hamilton, Johnathan Kovacevic, Jonas Siegenthaler, Luke Hughes, and Simon Nemec.

Brenden Dillon: B

Brenden Dillon’s beginning to 2025-26 was absolutely electric. For the first six or so weeks of the season, there was a very, very legitimate argument to him being the best blueliner on the team. At the end of the first month of the season, he was second in the entire NHL in Goals Above Replacement (GAR). In early November, he had impacts that looked like this:

There’s really not much more you can ask for there, right? Elite on both ends of the ice and a net positive in penalties and shorthanded defense. Especially for Dillon, this resurgence was pretty unfounded.

That play gradually tempered off, but that certainly doesn’t mean that Dillon didn’t still end the 2025-26 season with positive on-ice impacts. Come season’s end, he was just one of two Devils’ defensemen to log an expected goal share (xGF%) of over 50%, getting as close as can be with a hilarious 50.01% xGF%. Admittedly, the Devils did not control the majority of scoring chances or high-danger chances while Dillon was on the ice, but the team controlled enough of the shot attempt share (CF%) and shots on goal that it ended up barely in the Devils’ favor in the aggregate.

All in all, though, I have a feeling that the gradual decline in play was a byproduct of wear and tear from last season’s injury recovery and playing with a partner who struggled more and more defensively as the season went on. Despite that, his isolated impacts still ended up pretty strong, especially for the role he was designated to:

That’s more representative of what we’d expect en masse from Dillon — negative isolated offensive results but strong enough defensive impacts to even it out. As such, Dillon gets a B.

Dougie Hamilton: B+

Even prior to his post-benching production explosion — a stretch that saw him pot 28 points (seven goals, 21 assists) in 37 games, an 82-game pace of 62 points — Dougie Hamilton was playing severely underrated hockey.

Before that day — January 11 — Hamilton’s deployment was questionable, to say the least. He had the third-highest defensive zone start percentage (dZS%) on the team, beginning his shifts in the defensive zone 58.02% of the time. He was also consistently getting the toughest deployment competition-wise, logging heavy 5v5 minutes against first lines and first pairings. That’s not Hamilton’s role, though — he has always been deployed primarily in favorable positions on the ice against second-tier competition, something that is a commonality between high-point-producing defensemen. Victor Hedman and Roman Josi, at their peaks, played in similar capacities, as do most Norris candidate-level defensemen now. What I’m getting at is that there is a misconception about how highly-paid, high-production defensemen should be deployed. Some seem to believe that the high dollar amount equates to more difficult deployment, but that simply has not been the case throughout hockey history, and it seems silly to project that to Hamilton as well.

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Despite getting some of the hardest minutes in the league, Hamilton sported an xGF% of 53.49% prior to his benching, third-best on the team and tops among blueliners. The production wasn’t there, to be clear — he had just 11 points in 40 games at that point — but that was certainly a byproduct of that deployment and the fact that the Devils were shooting a mind-bogglingly poor 4.80% with him on the ice despite controlling the vast majority of scoring chances (53.06%) and high-danger chances (56.55%).

Post-scratch, Hamilton’s deployment changed drastically, and his production made sense once again. Instead of starting in the offensive zone 41.98% of the time, he started in the offensive zone 52.51% of the time. That 10-point swing, in reality, is Hamilton starting in the offensive zone over 25% more often than he was pre-scratch. It doesn’t hurt that positive regression hit, either, with the Devils shooting at a still-below-league-average-but-much-better 9.68% with No. 7 on the ice after January 11.

Of course, his underlying metrics were still elite (on both sides of the puck, to be clear), and, as such, his end-of-season numbers were the best on the team across the board. I can’t justify giving him an A of some sort, considering the lackluster production in the first half of the season, but a B+ seems more than fair, especially considering the defensive strides he took with Brad Shaw running the defensemen.

Moving foward, I think it would be prudent to keep Hamilton on the books for 2026-27 and beyond. He is an excellent defenseman — one well-worth his $9 million AAV price tag.

Johnathan Kovacevic: D+

It feels wrong to give Johnathan Kovacevic as poor a grade as this considering that he likely never fully recovered from his ACL/MCL injury throughout the course of the season, but the reality is that he was pretty atrocious for the most part.

In the games I tracked, Kovacevic’s zone denial rate was exorbitantly low, with teams absolutely realizing that his lack of mobility by virtue of his knee injury would allow them to exploit him off the rush. He was slow on direction changes, and his lack of mobility also caused him to take a ton of penalties — his 4.2 PIM/60 was easily the highest of his career.

Kovacevic’s underlying numbers for the season are heavily carried by Luke Hughes’ post-Olympic tear, but even then he grades out as being somewhat underwater. He ended the year with an xGF% of 48.41%, though it should be noted that his xGF% away from Luke was a 46.02% and that Luke’s xGF% without Kovacevic was 3% higher than his xGF% with Kovacevic. By all accounts, he anchored the potential of who should be the Devils’ #1 defenseman, and that in and of itself is a pretty big inherent negative.

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I would anticipate Kovacevic having a legitimate bounce-back next season, but for 2025-26, he gets a D+.

Jonas Siegenthaler: C

It was a bit of a weird season for Jonas Siegenthaler, where I earnestly could not tell you any specific moment or stretch he had that was particularly good or particularly bad. I’m comfortable saying that his second half of the season was stronger than his first half of the season, but 1) not by much and 2) it was still somewhat underwhelming considering his prior history as being a stalwart defender.

On a season-wide scale, Siegenthaler ended 2025-26 with an xGF% of 49.39%, third-worst of the six regulars on this list. It was an atypical season in the sense that the Devils gave up a bit more than one would expect while No. 71 was on the ice, with an expected goals against per hour (xGA/60) of 2.73, just 0.02 off his career-worst season in 2023-24. Oddly enough, the Devils’ expected goals for per hour (xGF/60) of 2.67 was the second-best of his career, tied with that very same season. In other words, the Devils both produced more xG and allowed more xG than we’re used to from Siegenthaler while he was on the ice in 2025-26.

Given his history in New Jersey and the likelihood that a Kovacevic bounce-back season is imminent based on health, I think it’s entirely possible, if not plausible, that we see Siegenthaler rebound to being defensively dominant in 2026-27 as well. That said, for this season, he gets a firm C.

Luke Hughes: C+

If we were solely basing this gradebook on post-Olympic play, Luke would have had an A+++ — he was easily the Devils’ best defenseman in that span and arguably was their best overall player from an underlying perspective.

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Once he returned from his injury, Luke was an absolute monster on both ends of the ice. He was the most puck-dominant defender on the team by far, with the offense either flowing through his or his brother’s stick at almost all times. His post-injury comeback saw an xGF% of 54.84%, being the best defenseman on the team in that regard and placing fourth on the team behind the top line of Nico Hischier, Timo Meier, and Dawson Mercer. Luke had the second-best CF%, with the Devils controlling 57.41% of the shot attempts in his minutes, and the second-best shot share (SF%), 58.21%, behind only Arseny Gritsyuk. By all accounts, he was who the Devils needed him to be.

It should also be said that, for the season, Luke had the third-best xGF/60 on the power play of any defenseman in the league (11.11), narrowly behind Evan Bouchard (11.42) and his brother, Quinn (11.39). Luke had by far the best scoring chances for per hour (SCF/60) on the power play of any blueliner in the NHL and the fourth-best high-danger chances for per 60 (HDCF/60) total as well. I should note that Dougie Hamilton was top-10 across the board as well.

That said, taking in the scope of the full season certainly paints Luke in a lesser light, with the first half of his campaign being rough. His pre-injury xGF% was just 47.68%, with the only regular defenseman up to that point doing worse being Nemec. Of course, Luke had the infamous two own-goal game that saw him get booed every time he touched the puck in that timeframe as well, and he had a number of ill-advised plays that cost the Devils goals against. I’m certain some of that, if not a lot of that, had to do with never really getting in the rhythm of the season after missing training camp, but it still stands true that he was inarguably the Devils’ second-worst defenseman on the club prior to his injury in mid-January.

Luke’s post-injury play, though, was excellent enough for me to give him a C+.

Simon Nemec: D+

I might get some flak for this, but I don’t think Simon Nemec had a good 2025-26 at all outside of the two-week stretch where he was forced into #1 minutes by virtue of injuries. He was legitimately great in that stretch, one that saw him be the overtime hero in a number of games and sport strong underlying statistics for the most part.

Outside of that anomalous couple of weeks, though, I thought Nemec looked like a deer in headlights for the most part, particularly on the defensive front. I don’t think anyone will understate his offensive chops and flashes of true brilliance with the puck on his stick, but there is still so much work to be done defensively that, to me, those offensive tools don’t really matter much in this context. Yes, he is young, but Nemec’s defensive brain lapses, endless puck-watching, and positional cluelessness are extremely frustrating and cost the Devils tremendously. Among the 146 blueliners to log at least 1000 minutes at 5v5 this season, Nemec had the fifth-worst goals against per hour (GA/60), almost all of that coming as a byproduct of his defensive ineptitude.

On the season, Nemec sported a defense-worst 48.02% xGF%, with a lot of that being buoyed by that two-week stretch. The Devils controlled fewer than half of the shot attempts, shots on goal, and scoring chances in his 5v5 minutes, and far fewer high-danger chances than the opposition. All of that came while logging the most favorable deployment from a zone start perspective and in somewhat sheltered, third-pair minutes against soft competition. Defensively, Nemec just cannot keep pace with the NHL right now. So, as good as that two-week stint as the Devils’ 1D was, I can’t give him better than a D+.

The next installment of this series will be the last, covering the part-time defensemen and goaltenders. Stay tuned!

Consider checking out the Devils’ Advocates Podcast, which features weekly episodes chock-full of in-depth content and exciting guest appearances. They’ll be available on this Substack, but you can also listen on your favorite platforms at the following links:

Spotify | Apple Podcasts

With the 2026 NHL Entry Draft just over a month away, and the Devils in possession of five picks, I’ll be going through a ton of prospects over the next several weeks in order to prepare readers for appealing targets in every round. At the end, I’ll be doing a full mock draft (with reasoning) so that you’ll be able to decipher my preferred targets. Enjoy!

All 2026 NHL Entry Draft Profiles:

12th Overall (First Round): Ethan Belchetz | Ryan Lin | Oscar Hemming | Wyatt Cullen | Viggo Björck | Xavier Villeneuve | Adam Novotný
44th Overall (Second Round):
103rd Overall (Fourth Round):
140th Overall (Fifth Round):
172nd Overall (Sixth Round):

The 2026 NHL Entry Draft has a ton of Swedish talent compared to years prior. Ivar Stenberg is a consensus top-two talent, Viggo Björck is arguably the top center in the class, and there are a myriad of other first-round talents. One such name is Elton Hermansson, one of the most fun prospects in the entire class. His raw skills are tantalizing, even if he hasn’t put it all together quite yet, and he has earned a shout as a mid-first round talent by virtue of those skills and his production.

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Let’s chat more about why Hermansson is a potentially appealing target with the 12th overall selection:

By the Numbers

Rankings: #25 by EliteProspects | #14 by Craig Button | #13 by Scouching | #15 by Scott Wheeler | #19 by SMAHT Scouting | #15 by McKeen’s Hockey | #25 by Yours Truly

Size: 6’1, 174 Pounds

Production: 11 Goals & 10 Assists (21 Total Points) in 38 HockeyAllsvenskan Games

It’s interesting that Hermansson’s star and NHLer probabilities are so low considering that he scored the fourth-most points of any U18 player in a season in HockeyAllsvenskan history and scored the ninth-most points of any draft eligible player in league history. That comes with the territory that the Allsvenskan has only gotten better over time. Still, the numbers don’t look superb as far as Byron Bader’s model is concerned. It should also be noted that Hermansson led the entire World Junior Championship in points, with 12 in seven games.

The underlying numbers for Hermansson are a bit lackluster as well, if we’re being honest. He has strong enough transition metrics, ranking in at least the 83rd percentile for zone entries and breakouts, and his individual impacts on xG on both sides of the puck is tangibly strong. Regardless, the underlying numbers don’t necessarily paint the best picture of the 18-year-old.

Evaluating Hermansson’s Tools

Skating

Hermansson is an average skater as it pertains to speed and acceleration. I’ve found that he is a bit of a stranger to breakaways, and when he is on an odd-man rush, he is typically the F2 or F3 rather than the zone enterer or play facilitator. It’s not because he doesn’t like the puck on his stick — on the cycle, I think Hermansson is a very active puck carrier — it’s because he doesn’t have the straight-line chops to be a true threat. I do think, though, that his edgework and agility are strong. His calling card is his hands, and he only furthers his success with moves and dekes by having the agility to skate circles around defenders:

Shooting

Hermansson’s shot is strong, in my opinion, though he can struggle with picking when to shoot and where to shoot from. That said, his wrister has power and precision, and his release can fool goaltenders enough to be a threat from mid-distance as well.

I think his one-timer is better than his wrist shot, though. He gets a ton of power on them, loading up through his legs before wiring a puck exactly where he wants it to go. Hermansson can blast it right through goaltenders, and very rarely misses the net when he fires them off.

Hermansson also has a sort of Temu Leon Draisaitl-esque ability to fire off one-timers from extremely low angles while still getting the puck on — and in — the net. He tries the sharp-angle shot quite often, which is both a blessing and a curse; it keeps the goalie on their toes at all times but is often a low-danger chance.

As I said, shot selection can be a bit of a problem, especially considering his shot is great but not world-beating. Too often does he try a low-danger attempt for the sake of getting a shot on net, but that is something that can be taught out of his game in time and as he continues to develop his ever-evolving hockey sense and playmaking chops.

Hockey Sense & Playmaking

Hermansson became more of a threat in playmaking as his season went on, somewhat learning on the fly that sometimes the best play is a pass rather than a shot. As that part of his game matured, we got to see more high-level plays and high-danger looks for himself and his teammates, really opening up his possibilities. It’s a great thing he got more comfortable in this part of the game, too, because we got moments like this cross-ice pass more often as time went on:

Hermansson does find the obvious plays extremely easily, though — when a teammate is completely open and he has his head up, he finds his guy and executes a tape-to-tape pass.

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His off-puck positioning in the offensive zone is excellent, too, knowing where to be and when to be there in order to have a quality scoring chance.

Puck Skills

This is where Hermansson shines, in my opinion. His hands are pure magic, with a bigger bag of dekes than any player in the class. He can pull any move out at any time to make a defender look foolish, something he is certainly keen on doing. As far as fun, Instagram hockey goes, Hermansson is one of the most appealing players in the draft. Plus, he can do this:

Who wouldn’t want a player who can do that on their team?

Defensive Play

Despite his underlying impacts showing that he was a net positive in his own zone, I do think Hermansson has some work to do there. At times, he seems somewhat disengaged, with flimsy positioning and lackluster effort in board play. This is the case with many first-round offensive talents, who see the game from an offensive point of view almost exclusively at this point in their paths. I wouldn’t say it’s overly concerning, to be clear — this should be the expectation from a prospect of this nature — but I would be remiss if I did not mention that he needs across-the-board improvement in his defensive game and efforts.

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Physicality

Hermansson also isn’t the most physical player out there. He will occasionally chip in on the forecheck, but I’ve found him to be most comfortable as the F2 or F3 on the boards as well. You’ll scarcely see him lay a hit for the sake of proactive playmaking, as he is more reliant on using his hands and agility to create space.

That said, he is certainly bull-like when he sees an opportunity to get to a loose puck:

For Hermansson, it’s all about raw upside. His puck skills and ability to play off the cycle are top-notch, and he has elevated his playmaking game over the course of the season where he can certainly now be considered a true dual-threat. The skeleton for a legit weapon is there, he just needs to put it all together and improve his straight-line speed and acceleration. I’m not sure if the his upside is worth the risk at the 12th overall slot, but given that he is projected to go in this range, it is certainly still worth talking about what makes him a first-round caliber player.

NHL Timeline: 2028-29
NHL Stylistic Comparables: Trevor Zegras, Mathew Barzal (sans speed), Filip Forsberg (sans physicality)

The videos from the Hlinka Gretzky Cup were sourced from this video on YouTube. The World Junior Championship clips are directly from the IIHF, and the clip from HockeyAllsvenskan is directly from the league.

Consider checking out the Devils’ Advocates Podcast, which features weekly episodes chock-full of in-depth content and exciting guest appearances. They’ll be available on this Substack, but you can also listen on your favorite platforms at the following links:

Spotify | Apple Podcasts

With the 2026 NHL Entry Draft just over a month away, and the Devils in possession of five picks, I’ll be going through a ton of prospects over the next several weeks in order to prepare readers for appealing targets in every round. At the end, I’ll be doing a full mock draft (with reasoning) so that you’ll be able to decipher my preferred targets. Enjoy!

All 2026 NHL Entry Draft Profiles:

12th Overall (First Round): Ethan Belchetz | Ryan Lin | Oscar Hemming | Wyatt Cullen | Viggo Björck | Xavier Villeneuve
44th Overall (Second Round):
103rd Overall (Fourth Round):
140th Overall (Fifth Round):
172nd Overall (Sixth Round):

Next up on the draft target list for the Devils’ 12th overall pick is Adam Novotný, a stocky, predictable, high-floor power forward out of the OHL. He is one of the older players in the class, already being 18 with a November birthday, but that certainly doesn’t make him a less appealing grab as a mid-first-round caliber prospect.

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If the Devils are going for consistency in a forward, Novotný certainly fits that bill. He brings energy to every shift of every game, has a dual-threat skillset, and is one of the easier players to project into the top nine of an NHL roster in due time. Let’s talk about why he might be an appealing target at 12th overall:

By the Numbers

Rankings: #15 by EliteProspects | #21 by Craig Button | #11 by Scouching | #18 by Scott Wheeler | #21 by SMAHT Scouting | #14 by McKeen’s Hockey | #13 by Yours Truly

Size: 6’1, 205 Pounds

Production: 34 Goals & 31 Assists (65 Total Points) in 58 OHL Games

Novotný’s statistical profile is not superb for where he is likely slated to go in the draft, but I have a feeling that that’s more due to his D-1 production in the Czechia pro league than it is his 2025-26 output in the OHL. An NHLe of 28 in his draft year is nothing to scoff at, even if the model’s projection isn’t super appealing. That is further exascerbated by his underlying numbers, which are excellent:

Novotný is one of the more threatening transition players in the draft, ranking in the 100th percentile for defensive zone breakouts and the 99th percentile for offensive zone entries. He likes the puck on his stick in the neutral zone, and for good reason — he’s clearly superb at efficiency and volume in that regard. Offensively, it’s clear that his individual creation for himself is his best attribute, and his defensive inclusion is excellent to boot, even if the impacts themselves are subpar.

Evaluating Novotný’s Tools

Skating

Novotný is a pretty strong skater, with an above-average top gear and explosive power in each of his strides. He can reach his full speed potential in but a few steps, making him an asset both in the neutral zone and in the cycle. He likes the puck on his stick in transition, and for good reason — he can blaze right past coverage and is extremely strong on the puck, allowing him to perform power moves at full speed.

More than just his skating ability, Novotný has an incessant motor. He needs to be the first one to a loose puck and needs to be a nuisance upon the defense making a retrieval. That’s likely why his acceleration is as strong as it is — his game is predicated on it:

Shooting

Novotný has one of the better wrist shots in the entire class, I would argue. His release is deceptive as can be, with an ability to change the angle of the shot in an instant. He gets an immense amount of power on his wristers and can pick corners at will. Watch all three of those — a deceptive release, power, and pinpoint accuracy — on one of the most disgusting wrist shots I’ve seen at the junior level below:

What cannot be understated with Novotný’s shot is his ability to deceive the goaltender in multiple ways. Deception through changing the angle of the shot? Check. Deception through using defenders’ legs as a screen? Check. Deception through timing, playing with the goaltender’s rhythm? Check.

Hockey Sense & Playmaking

I wouldn’t consider Novotný’s playmaking ability and IQ a strong suit, but I think he still certainly has his flashes.

If there is a clear play to be made, Novotný will make it. His edgework allows for quick turnarounds to lose coverage in a split second before firing off a pass to an obvious candidate. He likes to draw defenders in using his strength and power, following that up with a quick turnaround to shake them and create some more space for either himself or his teammates.

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A lot of Novotný’s playmaking is directly produced from forechecking. His nonstop motor and need to prevent the defense from breaking out culminates in a ton of generated opportunities for himself and others, further exploited by occasional flashes of high-end vision, even if those moments come fewer and further between than you’d like to see.

The other facet of his game where IQ comes into play, and likely where it is at its best, is in his offensive zone off-puck positioning. He’s in constant motion while cycling, and that lends itself to getting into open lanes for shot opportunities. Being the volume shooter that he is, this is a necessity, and something he has grown more comfortable and apt with over time, to the point that it is an NHL-ready tool right now.

Puck Skills

Novotný has great hands, though I find his collection of dekes and dangles to be rather simple. This isn’t a bad thing, it just means that, rather than performing show-stopping moves, he likes simple side-to-side moves followed by using his burst four-way skating to escape a jam.

Novotný does have strong hand-eye coordination as well, being able to corral pucks from mid-air in transition and proving to be a valued netfront presence for tips and deflections for his squad.

Defensive Play

I think Novotný’s defensive impact was a bit undersold by the underlying numbers listed at the beginning of this profile — I think his support of the play in his own zone is quite strong, and his need to pounce on loose pucks translates over to his end of the ice as well. He’s hyperactive in board battles, and that quick burst ability shows up in breakouts extremely well, hence why he ranked in the 100th percentile for that statistic in Gabriel Foley's player card on him. He positions himself well while the opposition is cycling, blockading passing lanes and occasionally pouncing on them to generate odd-man looks.

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Physicality

Novotný’s physicality isn’t rooted in open ice hits or having a grinder mentality, rather showing itself in the form of pure strength. He’s nigh impossible to knock off the puck once he has possession, battling his way through body checking attempts and stick checks with ease anywhere in the offensive zone.

I’m not so sure Novotný projects as a top-line talent simply because his IQ is just average, but the combination of his burst skating ability, forechecking aptitude, and strong finishing talent cement him as a sure-fire middle-six player with legitimate 25-goal upside. Second-line pests who dominate the game through strength are certainly valuable assets to NHL lineups, I just question whether the ceiling will truly be there without development in his processing game and a bit less tunnel vision when he has the puck — I find that he holds on for too long at times in the name of trying to fire the puck on net himself. Still, he will be selected in the mid-first round for good reason.

NHL Timeline: 2027-28
NHL Stylistic Comparables: Alexis Lafrenière, Tyler Bertuzzi, Mason McTavish

The videos from this prospect breakdown are again courtesy of Jesse Marshall, whose Novotný mixtape you can find here. Be sure to check out his phenomenal Substack, Faceoff-Factor, and his work at The Athletic and EliteProspects.

Consider checking out the Devils’ Advocates Podcast, which features weekly episodes chock-full of in-depth content and exciting guest appearances. They’ll be available on this Substack, but you can also listen on your favorite platforms at the following links:

Spotify | Apple Podcasts

With the 2026 NHL Entry Draft less than two months away, and the Devils in possession of five picks, I’ll be going through a ton of prospects over the next several weeks in order to prepare readers for appealing targets in every round. At the end, I’ll be doing a full mock draft (with reasoning) so that you’ll be able to decipher my preferred targets. Enjoy!

All 2026 NHL Entry Draft Profiles:

12th Overall (First Round): Ethan Belchetz | Ryan Lin | Oscar Hemming | Wyatt Cullen | Viggo Björck
44th Overall (Second Round):
103rd Overall (Fourth Round):
140th Overall (Fifth Round):
172nd Overall (Sixth Round):

Next up on the draft target profile series is Xavier Villeneuve, an undersized, 5’11 defenseman with undisputably magical offensive capabilities. The Lane Hutson-esque blueliner is widely highly-rated by most outlets, regularly placing within the top 5-10 of draft rankings, but his stature will almost certainly cause him to drop far below where he should be.

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Without wasting any more words, let’s chat about what he brings to the table:

By the Numbers

Rankings: #6 by EliteProspects | #29 by Craig Button | #6 by Scouching | #20 by Scott Wheeler | #5 by SMAHT Scouting | #20 by McKeen’s Hockey | #9 by Yours Truly

Size: 5’11, 157 Pounds

Production: 6 Goals & 32 Assists (38 Total Points) in 37 QMJHL Games

Villeneuve’s 25% star probability is reasonably high — the 13th highest of any player in the draft class to be specific and within the top 10 of players projected to land in the first round. With draft year production comparables like Owen Power, Alex Pietrangelo, and Jakob Chychrun, it’s safe to say he has certainly produced like a first-round talent. His under-the-hood numbers are even more impressive:

Of course, what stands out more than anything is Villeneuve’s unbelievable work in transition. He ranks in the 100th percentile for zone entries and 97th for defensive zone breakouts, making him a near one-of-one defenseman in the draft class when it comes to dominating the neutral zone. His offensive metrics are predictably top-notch as well, ranking in the 85th percentile or higher in all three measured offensive statistics, and his defense is adequately underrated to boot. An excellent statistical prospect by all accounts.

Evaluating Villeneuve’s Tools

Skating

Villeneuve is a superb skater, through and through. Every skating trait you’d like to see in a defender is present — he has lightning quick acceleration, with an ability to go from nothing to top speed in but a few strides; he has a top gear faster than most defenders in the league; and his agility is one of one in the class. He can maneuver the blue line fluently, with quick changes of pace to lose coverage, spin-o-ramas to leave coverage on the opposite side of the play, and sidestep any and all traffic — Villeneuve can truly do it all.

What amazes me about Villeneuve’s agility is that his vertical cutbacks are just as excellent as his sidesteps. His four-way mobility is absurd, and he uses it to make defensive pressure look silly or to keep perfect pace regardless of what oncoming attackers are doing while he’s skating in reverse. Flat out, there are no players in the draft class who move like he does.

Shooting

Villeneuve didn’t score many goals this season, but that isn’t for a lack of quality mechanics. His slapshot could use to add a good chunk of power — something that will come along as he fills out his frame — but he is accurate when winding up. His wrist shots, though, are very strong. With time and space, he can pick corners with ease and with a blistering speed:

Without time and space, though, Villeneuve is absolutely still threatening. Many of his assists this season (and throughout his career) have been a direct product of his innate understanding of space and timing, firing off wrist shots through several layers of traffic that always seem to end up right in front of the net or tipped. It’s absolutely a skill, and one that he has seemingly mastered.

Hockey Sense & Playmaking

As great as his skating and shooting through traffic is, the star of Villeneuve’s game is, without a doubt, his vision and offensive IQ. His bread and butter is — and always has been — drawing defensive coverage to himself in order to open up lanes for passes to high-danger areas of the ice. Whereas some defenders shrivel when presented with pressure, Villeneuve encourages it, understanding that he can fully manipulate the opposition into allowing a high-danger opportunity.

I love the above clip, because you can watch as two defenders completely panic and scramble to get in front of the puck as soon as Villeneuve gets possession. Of course, he makes them pay anyway.

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Enjoy a couple more clips of Villeneuve completely making a fool out of the defense in the name of creating quality looks and goals:

Above, you can see Villeneuve — intentional or not — bank a low shot attempt off of the goalie’s pads to generate a goal. The intention there, to me, was pretty clearly a pass. Even if it was an attempt at a goal, it was perfectly heightened enough to generate a rebound.

Above, you can see Villeneuve’s cross-ice vision, doling out the perfect secondary assist to a wide-open man right in front of the goalmouth.

In the above clip, you can see Villeneuve’s playmaking twice: the first, a quick netfront pass attempt that didn’t quite work out. The second, more threatening opportunity that ultimately resulted in a goal was much more impressive. After pinching (successfully, of course), Villeneuve faked a pass to force the defender to crouch before drawing another defenseman’s attention and pouncing on the opportunity to get the puck into an open passing lane. Of course, it was beautifully executed.

Puck Skills

Villeneuve also has the Lane Hutson hands — lightning-quick deking ability that allows him to further capitalize on his IQ and further exploit the defense. He has a myriad of moves that he can bring out at both a standstill and at full speed, favoring moves that bring the puck through a defender’s stick or legs:

Villeneuve’s dangle collection is deep, and he has the wherewithal to know what move will work best to bait a defender into coming toward him. Toe drags and quick forward-backward moves are mainstays in his shift-by-shift game.

Defensive Play

I’ve read many scouting reports debating whether or not Villeneuve is an apt defender, and I tend to lean towards him being more than adequate in his own zone. He, of course, has some lapses where he perhaps overprioritizes getting the puck out of his zone and can cheat or misplay the puck, but I find those moments to be well-worth the breakout upside and success rate. The other complaint about his defensive game is reliant on his size, with the argument being he gets pushed off the puck relatively easily. I think this is true, however I don’t see it as much of a concern over the course of the next couple of seasons — as Villeneuve continues to fill out, he will only gain strength that allows him to be more comfortable in these situations, and he’s certainly shifty enough to get out of most situations as is. As he continues to develop his game and grow more comfortable against tougher competition, this ability will only solidify.

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Physicality

Villeneuve, as you would expect, isn’t all that physical. He doesn’t need to be — his game is reliant on skill, agility, and, most importantly, possession. He loves the puck on his stick and he loves to dance around coverage rather than bullrush through it. Again, he will only become more comfortable with the physical side of things as he gains poundage — he’s a hard enough worker where that added weight will allow him to exploit those parts of the game as well, be it on the forecheck or in creating space in a multidimensional way.

Realistically speaking, Villeneuve will be available far past the Devils’ 12th overall selection. I wouldn’t be shocked for him to still be on the board following the first day of the draft, though I think he probably gets taken before New Jersey picks at 44th overall. Not a single defenseman under 6’0 was selected in the 2025 NHL Draft, and though Villeneuve’s skillset is tantalizing, NHL GMs are predictably cautious when drafting undersized defensemen. If Villeneuve is there at 44, he will be undeniably the best player available.

With that in mind, though, there’s also a very legitimate argument to him being the best player available at 12th overall as well. His skills are absolutely drool-worthy. If he is the Devils’ choice at 12th, assuming the pick is kept, I certainly wouldn’t be mad.

NHL Timeline: 2027-28
NHL Stylistic Comparables: Lane Hutson, Zeev Buium, Cole Hutson

Consider checking out the Devils’ Advocates Podcast, which features weekly episodes chock-full of in-depth content and exciting guest appearances. They’ll be available on this Substack, but you can also listen on your favorite platforms at the following links:

Spotify | Apple Podcasts

It’s been a little while since we talked about the report cards for the Devils’ 2025-26 players, taking a small detour to talk for a while about some potential fits with the 12th overall pick in the 2026 NHL Entry Draft. In the name of taking a one-day respite from bombarding everyone with prospect content, let’s return back to the gradebook.

This time around, let’s chat about the part-time forwards the Devils employed throughout the season. From the early-season mainstays who were traded or waived, to the injury-plagued players who were supposed to be regulars, to the fourth-line call-ups who only played a handful of games, it’s time to grade the irregular members of the team. For this, there is no limit to how few games a player played — it may seem silly to grade a player based on a one-game sample, but that’s how the cookie crumbles; sometimes there are only one-game sample sizes to go off of.

Luke Glendening (52 Games Played): F

I don’t really care if he played well once he was claimed off of waivers by the Philadelphia Flyers, Luke Glendening was arguably/inarguably the worst skater in the entire National Hockey League while donning the Devils’ uniform.

Up until he was waived on March 5th, 2026, Glendening had the fourth-worst expected goal share (xGF%) — 36.58% — of any player in the NHL who had logged at least 400 minutes of ice time. For reference, that is 569th of 573 skaters. The only players behind him were a trio of Seattle Kraken forwards, namely Frederic Gaudreau (33.21%), Chandler Stephenson (33.40), and Eeli Tolvanen (35.23%). What separates them from Glendening is production. At 5v5, Gaudreau, Stephenson, and Tolvanen produced 1.24, 1.36, and 1.11 points per 60 minutes. Glendening produced 0.42, nearly less than one-third the “worst” player on that list.

Of that group of 573 players, Glendening ranked dead last in scoring chance share (SCF%) and second to last in actual goal share (GF%), getting outscored 20-6 in his 428:22 of 5v5 time.

Suffice to say, Glendening was generationally bad in 2025-26, at least for the Devils. Sure, he picked it up for their division rival, but this is about how he performed while in New Jersey. Perhaps the worst part was that this was a predictable outcome — I and many others had said that Glendening’s track record in recent memory of getting caved in during his minutes was a glaring, bright red flag, and one that was frustratingly ignored by the Devils’ management group. Faceoff ability be damned, Glendening was always a bad decision.

Ondrej Palat (51 Games Played): F

One fantastic playoff assist and several years of painstaking play, and fans have finally been freed of the Ondrej Palat experiment. In late January, then-GM Tom Fitzgerald traded him to the New York Islanders, with a sweetener of a third-rounder and sixth-rounder, for Maxim Tsyplakov.

There is no doubt in my mind — absolutely none — that Palat was a treasured member of the Devils’ locker room, and that does have some inherent value to it. That said, though, the leadership doesn’t even come close to making the on-ice product palatable.1 His overarching xGF% on the season for the Devils (46.39%) is perhaps undeserving of an F grade, but the reality is, once again, that he made just about every single player on the Devils worse when playing alongside them.

To illustrate that, I took log of the underlying numbers for every Devils player who logged at least 60 minutes of 5v5 time with Palat in 2025-26 and their underlying numbers with and without No. 18:

As you can see, just one player was better with Palat than without him: Arseny Gritsyuk. All 12 others were hampered with his presence on the ice. In particular, that holds true for the most important players on the team — Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt both enjoyed 11+% upticks in xGF% without Palat anchoring them and Nico Hischier saw a near 20% improvement.

It’s clear that Palat and his contract held the Devils back a lot, perhaps even more so when taking into account that it’s possible he was what prevented the Devils from landing Quinn Hughes via trade. That isn’t his fault, though, and his grade shouldn’t reflect his contract status.

Even on play, though, Palat gets an F. No questions about it.

Stefan Noesen (38 Games Played): D

It was a frustrating season for Stefan Noesen, whose season began with a groin injury that forced him to miss time and whose season ended with a knee injury that necessitated surgery and forced him to miss the last three months of the campaign.

When he was “healthy,” though, he wasn’t very good.

As was the story for practically the entire bottom-six, the 33-year-old power forward struggled immensely in terms of underlying numbers. Noesen’s xGF% on the year was a shade under 46%, with the Devils controlling just 44.04% of the scoring chances and 41.80% of the high-danger chances with him on the ice. As you’d imagine, New Jersey was outscored tremendously in his minutes.

Perhaps Noesen fully recovers from his ailments entering 2026-27, but my guess would be that he is offloaded in the summer. His production and impacts are just not what they should be relative to his cap hit, and he is only getting older and slower. It might be time for a change.

Evgenii Dadonov (24 Games Played): F

It’s truly hard not to feel bad for Evgenii Dadonov and his injury-riddled beginning to his tenure with the Devils. In his first game, he broke his hand. He came back, played five more games, and broke it again. When he came back, he was a staple on the fourth line, a far cry from the expectation that he would be playing middle-six minutes like he did with Dallas just one season prior — a year in which he had 20 goals and 40 total points, mind you.

In the games he did play, though, Dadonov was largely a non-factor. He was invisible most of the time, blending into the background of whichever line he was on without elevating the play of anyone. He ended the season with an xGF% of 37.99%, the second-worst number of any player to log at least 20 games in the black and red. He had but one point on the season, a goal that came in a 5-2 loss to the Hurricanes in late March. It’s very plausible that this was his last season in the NHL, and it was not a good one to end on.

In the end, the marriage just didn’t work out for Dadonov or the Devils. It was a smart bet by the Devils’ front office to potentially capture last season’s lightning in a bottle and get a cheap, middle-six contributor, but it simply did not pan out very well. It happens.

Juho Lammikko (24 Games Played): D-

The Devils brought in Juho Lammikko last off-season as presumed center depth, with the assumption being that he would fight for minutes at 4C with whoever they signed to a PTO following training camp. They ended up far preferring Glendening for reputation alone, with Lammikko never really forcing their hand into playing him more often.

Again, every player who played time on the fourth line (except one, who I’ll get to in a second), had a pretty putrid season, and Lammikko was certainly no exception to this rule. Come season’s end, he found himself playing overseas, back with the team he signed from in the NL — a product of getting put on waivers without having been claimed. He was waived partly because of the Nick Bjugstad acquisition and partly because he just wasn’t very good.

In the 24 games Lammikko did see, the Devils controlled just 41.55% of the xG in his 5v5 minutes. They controlled fewer than 40% of the scoring chances and a smidgen over 42% of the shot attempts. I thought he had a couple of nice individual moments throughout his time in New Jersey, contributing on the odd forecheck or power move, but he was largely just the status quo for the fourth line, and a status quo that was somewhat unplayable.

Brian Halonen (15 Games Played): D

I’m earnestly surprised that Brian Halonen even logged 15 games in 2025-26 — it certainly felt like fewer. It felt like fewer because, truthfully, the 27-year-old was pretty invisible most of the time.

From an underlying perspective, Halonen had the honor of producing the worst xGF% of any player on the team who played at least 10 games, with the Devils controlling just 35.06% of the xG in his minutes at 5v5. He was a bit of a proponent of generating shot attempts and shots on goal, something you’d expect from a player who shoots at volume at the AHL level, but the quality of those chances were clearly lacking. Halonen’s near-45% shot on goal share (SF%) is miles better than his high-danger chance share (HDCF%) of 31.25% and SCF% of 31.58% — like I said, the possession was fine, but the Devils bled quality looks while Halonen was on the ice.

There is a subsect of Devils fans who believe that he is deserving of an expanded role and more favorable deployment, but, to be honest, he simply hasn’t earned that. 2025-26 was no different, with him making no difference to the team in a positive way in his 15 games.

Angus Crookshank, Marc McLaughlin, & Xavier Parent (20 Combined Games Played): D-

These three players combined for 20 games, with Angus Crookshank logging eight, Marc McLaughlin logging seven, and Xavier Parent logging five. Neither of them did much of anything, though I did like the energy they brought to the team. You could certainly tell that they were each putting in 100% effort all the time, the problem was just that the ensuing result was lackluster, to say the least.

All three forwards ended their cup of coffees in the NHL with an xGF% below 25%, a clear signal that they were a bit in over their heads. All three had a shot attempt share (CF%) between 35% and 40%, all three were between 20-30% in SCF%, and all three were between 15%-32% in HDCF%.

Clearly, the 20 combined games were more than enough to dissuade the Devils from playing them more, though I will say that McLaughlin was more of a mainstay come season’s end, once he fully recovered from the injury that was plaguing him to begin 2025-26.

Zack MacEwen (3 Games Played): A

It seems extraordinarily silly to give a player an A after playing just three games, but I had no choice for Zack MacEwen — he was that good in the infinitesimally small sample size he showed in 2025-26. I think that, were he not to have undergone significant injury setbacks, he’d have logged significantly more time on the fourth line and pushed for a pretty consistent role on the team.

As far as energy goes, I think what MacEwen brought to the table was exactly what the Devils needed. He and his motor were nonstop on both sides of the ice, generating quality offensive looks by proxy of his relentless forechecking and netfront aptitude while suppressing chances on defense because of his work ethic and need to get the puck out of his own zone. The result was a three-game stint in which the Devils controlled almost 90% of the xG in his minutes, with 75% of the shot attempts, 78.95% of the shots on goal, 87.5% of the scoring chances, and 100% of the high-danger chances going the Devils’ way.

MacEwen is a prime example of a fourth-line grinder who can drop the mitts and actually play hockey. I sincerely hope he is brought back to the team next season.

Nathan Legare & Shane Lachance (1 Game Apiece): D

Nathan Legare and Shane Lachance both played one game, and neither were strong enough performances to warrant keeping them in the NHL. Legare’s game was particularly bad, somehow putting in a performance in which the Devils controlled just 6.08% of the xG, but neither one was impressive. I can’t, in good faith, give an F for a single game sample size, though.

The next iteration of this series will cover the six defensemen who ended the season on the main roster. I’ll aim to have that out sometime next week, with plenty of draft target coverage in the interim — ‘tis the season, after all!

Make sure to subscribe or follow the Devils’ Advocates podcast on your streaming platform of choice to stay up to date with the latest happenings of the New Jersey Devils, including exciting guest appearances!

Listen to the Devils’ Advocates Podcast on your favorite platforms below:

Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Consider checking out the Devils’ Advocates Podcast, which features weekly episodes chock-full of in-depth content and exciting guest appearances. They’ll be available on this Substack, but you can also listen on your favorite platforms at the following links:

Spotify | Apple Podcasts

With the 2026 NHL Entry Draft less than two months away, and the Devils in possession of five picks, I’ll be going through a ton of prospects over the next several weeks in order to prepare readers for appealing targets in every round. At the end, I’ll be doing a full mock draft (with reasoning) so that you’ll be able to decipher my preferred targets. Enjoy!

All 2026 NHL Entry Draft Profiles:

12th Overall (First Round): Ethan Belchetz | Ryan Lin | Oscar Hemming | Wyatt Cullen
44th Overall (Second Round):
103rd Overall (Fourth Round):
140th Overall (Fifth Round):
172nd Overall (Sixth Round):

I’m going to begin this draft profile with the sentiment that I very much doubt that Viggo Björck will be available when the Devils draft 12th overall in the 2026 NHL Entry Draft. That said, much stranger things have happened than an immensely talented and high IQ player dropping by virtue of being 5’10 or shorter. It happened in 2019 with Cole Caufield, in 2021 with Logan Stankoven, and in 2022 with Lane Hutson. Last season, we saw a consensus first-round talent in Cameron Schmidt drop to the late third round by virtue of being small.

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In most mock drafts, Björck is gone by the time the Devils pick. Then again, in most mock drafts, the players above were selected far ahead of where they actually ended up. So, it is certainly possible that the 5’10 Swedish forward ends up pickable at 12.

With that in mind, if the rest of the league is silly enough to let Björck slide to that spot, the Devils should select him with no questions asked. Let’s talk about him:

By the Numbers

Rankings: #8 by EliteProspects | #6 by Craig Button | #4 by Scouching | #6 by Scott Wheeler | #7 by SMAHT Scouting | #8 by McKeen’s Hockey | #4 by Yours Truly

Size: 5’10, 172 Pounds

Production: 6 Goals & 9 Assists (15 Total Points) in 42 SHL Games (1 Goal & 2 Assists in 3 Playoff Games)

Björck grades out as a late-first rounder in terms of star projection and NHL projection in Byron Bader’s model, but I’m not concerned with that whatsoever. As a draft-eligle prospect, he logged top-six center minutes in the second hardest league in the world and absolutely looked right at home. His production was underwhelming relative to the ice time he accrued, but that certainly isn’t the whole picture. The underlying numbers are extremely favorable.

Obviously, Björck grades out super well in all three facets of the game here. Defensively, there is perhaps no harder worker in the class (as we’ll get into later), and I actually think the tracked minutes here underrate his transition work. He was often Djurgårdens’ top transition threat, doing the bulk of the work on breakouts and zone entries while he was on the ice. Regardless, it’s a wildly encouraging underlying profile nonetheless.

Evaluating Björck’s Tools

Skating

For a 5’10 skater, Björck isn’t a superb skater. I still think he grades out as an above-average player in terms of speed, acceleration, and agility, but the “concern” in his game is that, given his size, typically what counteracts concerns is elite speed and agility. Björck doesn’t have elite speed or agility, but that doesn’t mean he’s a poor skater by any means. He is perfectly capable of getting past defensemen using his top gear.

Björck is also perfectly apt at getting past defenders using weight shifts and side-steps, with enough agility to get around one or two defenders at a time. He baits, draws in, shifts, and accelerates out of it:

Shooting

I like Björck’s shot mechanics quite a bit, particularly with his wrist shot. He picks his spot, winds up, and hits it. His release is sound and deceptive, and given his ability to get shots through traffic with ease, he can find ways to beat goaltenders at all distances.

I don’t think Björck’s one-timer is all that perfect — he could probably use to add a bit more power to it — but his backhand is fantastic. He can lift the puck comfortably from in-tight while on his backhand, making him a very real threat in the interior from all angles and orientations.

Hockey Sense & Playmaking

Björck’s IQ is where he truly shines. As far as pure vision and hockey sense go, I think there is a real argument to him being the smartest player in the class. He sees the ice incredibly well, and is able to predict the defense’s exact movements before they happen. That makes him a constant threat to find surprise high-danger looks, generating quality chances that otherwise wouldn’t be there. Beyond that, he’s able to thread tight passes through layers of traffic, being unafraid of challenging a defenseman’s reaction time and ability to read deception.

Beyond his ability to read the play when he has the puck on the stick, Björck’s best ability is his off-puck movement, positioning, and smarts. With consistency, he finds open gaps in coverage and exploits them, being able to silently maneuver into high-danger areas of the ice with ease.

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Björck has eyes in the back of his head, implicitly understanding where his teammates are and will be at all times, often times not even needing to scan the ice to make the right play.

Björck also generates a ton of playmaking chances through sheer hard work and tenacity. He’s no stranger to playing the body to feed his playmaking chops, whether that is through proactive contact, shifting weight to put himself in better body positioning, or simply aggravating the opponent into a turnover before capitalizing on it:

Puck Skills

I think Björck possesses top-notch hands, and what I appreciate about them is that he keeps it relatively simple unless a high-end finesse move is really needed. He has the skill to make a through-the-legs move, but recognizes that many times, that’s less efficient than making a simple deke to create a bit of space. Overcomplicating things can result in a poor play, and Björck knows this.

Björck’s hand-eye coordination is immensely strong, too. He plays the netfront a surprising amount for a player of his stature, and he succeeds there by perfectly angling his stick to tip a shot on net with consistency. Beyond just that, he uses that hand-eye coordination to chip pucks to himself off the wall or juggle it through pressure when needed.

Defensive Play

I don’t think it’s a stretch to call Björck the most defensively capable player in the top-half of the draft. Between his unparalleled work ethic, perfect positioning, excellent stick-checking ability, or breakout skill by virtue of his burst skating and hands, he truly does it all. There is a reason he was playing in the toughest defensive matchups and on the penalty kill as an 18-year-old playing in the SHL on a playoff team. His defensive work is magical.

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Physicality

Björck is a pest. Not in the typical sense of playing on the border of clean and dirty, but in the sense of simply being aggravating to play against. He plays extremely physically for his size, with a Zach Benson-esque ability to force trauma upon defenders playing against the forecheck through sheer willpower and tenacity. He’s strong on the puck, protects it well, and uses body checking to wear down the opponent and better position himself on both sides of the puck. For his size, he has immense strength and power and certainly plays with a style more typical of a player who has 6” and 40 pounds on him.

If the GMs ahead of the Devils over-prioritize size as they typically do, Mehta might be able to capitalize on their ineptitude. In the event that Björck is available, he should absolutely be the preferred target — he’s a consensus top-six talent in the draft from pundits and scouts alike, and his work ethic should neutralize any and all concerns about his combination of size and skating ability. Even then, his skating isn’t a real concern, and banking on IQ, hockey sense, and work ethic seem to be the way to go in today’s NHL. I’ll be manifesting for his drop to 12 until it happens.

NHL Timeline: 2027-28
NHL Stylistic Comparables: Zach Benson, Logan Stankoven, Brad Marchand

The clips in this video were taken from Jesse Marshall’s mixtape on Bjorck, which you can find here. I highly, highly recommend watching the video in full and checking out Jesse’s Substack, Faceoff-Factor! He can also be found on The Athletic and EliteProspects from time to time.

Consider checking out the Devils’ Advocates Podcast, which features weekly episodes chock-full of in-depth content and exciting guest appearances. They’ll be available on this Substack, but you can also listen on your favorite platforms at the following links:

Spotify | Apple Podcasts

With a new regime underway in New Jersey, one run by a progressive-thinking, analytics-fluent individual in Sunny Mehta, we can anticipate quite a few changes to philosophies with the Devils.

One such area in which the Devils will need to shift the paradigm to have more success is in drafting. According to Byron Bader’s model, the Devils have the second-worst prospect pool in the league by NHLe, star probability, and NHL probability. For an organization that has selected in the upper-first round of the draft pretty often in recent years and hasn’t ended up as the perennial Cup contender many thought they would be by now, this is simply an unacceptable outcome.

Notable misses in recent years include drafting Alex Holtz over Marco Rossi and Cole Perfetti, drafting Chase Stillman over literally anyone (namely Logan Stankoven and Olen Zellweger), taking Simon Nemec over Logan Cooley or Shane Wright, selecting Shakir Mukhamadullin a round and a half earlier than his projection — the list goes on. Those aren’t retrospective opinions, either; the organization has generally fought the consensus on their draft selections. Even Anton Silayev, who is still too early to give a genuine opinion of whether or not he was worth it, was selected over the consensus pick of Zeev Buium.

They’ve generally drafted well in the second rounds in recent memory, hitting on Lenni Hämeenaho, Seamus Casey, and Mikhail Yegorov, but the reality is that, given the number of picks they’ve had in recent years and where those picks have landed in the draft, their prospect pool and projectable NHL talent is rough.

With the new regime, though, we can hope that some philosophical changes are afoot. The scouting department is reportedly going to undergo a plethora of turnover over the next year or so, with the majority of the department on expiring contracts. Mehta himself said in a press release that the best version of a scouting department is one that aggregates a ton of different backgrounds, ages, and the heavy usage of numbers, so we can anticipate that the way that the Devils approach the draft will be different while he is in charge.

Let’s chat about what that might look like and what the best-drafting teams do that the Devils can mimic:

Draft BPA 100% of the Time

Nothing aggravates me as a prospect enjoyer more than when GMs select for need rather than selecting the best player available (BPA). It’s an infuriating cycle that seemingly never ends, but it’s something that I hope Mehta counteracts, similarly to how the analytic-focused organizations (Carolina, Dallas, Tampa Bay) approach things.

Just looking at the slate of recent Devils’ drafts, we can see a pattern of picking for need over picking the best player there. Holtz was thought of as a sniper to put alongside Jack Hughes, because he needed a scoring winger to play in the top six. Silayev was picked because the Devils’ front office thought the Devils had enough offense and that they needed a defense-first defenseman to play with Luke Hughes and Nemec. Stillman was reached on because Tom Fitzgerald thought the Devils needed to get tougher and less skilled. The Devils’ entire 2024 draft class was picked out of a perceived need to get bigger, stronger, and harder to play against. The list goes on.

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The Devils are far from the only organization drafting for need over picking the best player available. In fact, there are only a couple of teams in the league who draft BPA consistently, meaning that the Devils would be breaking the wheel by simply doing the right thing with regularity. The Stars are one such team, preying on the “pick for need” crew by drafting the likes of Mavrik Borque, Logan Stankoven, and Jason Robertson when they were the clear BPA.

They did so again in 2025, selecting Cameron Schmidt in the third round, being able to smartly identify that they could pounce on him far later than he should have been drafted by preying on hockey man mentality and predisposition on size. The Hurricanes do the same exact thing every season, and, as such, they’ve hit players who should have been drafted earlier than they were: Seth Jarvis, Bradly Nadeau, Jackson Blake, Scott Morrow — there are so many examples of not overthinking it and just picking the best player there.

The reality is that, given that unless one is picking in the first couple of selections in the entire draft, the vast, vast, vast majority of draftees aren’t ready for NHL action. As such, by the time they are ready to play in the show, there’s just no saying what a team will actually need. Take Nemec as an example — by the time he was truly a full-time NHLer, there was a logjam on the right side of defense that resulted in other NHL-caliber players getting scratched.

With that, the simple — and correct — thing to do is just to pick the best player available at any time. Overcomplicating and overthinking are how the Devils ended up with Stillman in the first round.

Don’t Follow in the Footsteps of “Hockey Men” GMs

There are actually a couple of ways in which the Devils can, and should, break the wheel. One, of course, is the above practice of picking BPA instead of for need.

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Secondly, one thing that has always stood true in recent memory is an over-prioritization of size in the draft (and other areas, of course). Take the 2025 NHL Entry Draft as an example — 15 players who were at least 6’4 were drafted in the first two rounds, but just one player listed at 5’10 or smaller was drafted (Cullen Potter, 32nd overall). I would argue that Cullen Potter is among the highest regarded players of that class now. We saw three different first-round talents fall to the third round or later in Cameron Schmidt, LJ Mooney, and Adam Benak. All three of them are lighting their respective leagues up and are among the top of their respective prospect pools. No shocker there — I listed all three of them as must-get targets for the Devils in my 2025 draft profiles.

I’ve been thinking quite a lot about this recently, but if I were presented with two players of similar pedigree, one of whom was 6’4 and the other of whom was 5’10, I would pick the smaller player nine times out of ten. For one, the smaller players almost always have more projectable skill and upside. Just as importantly, though, the work ethic among first-round caliber players who are undersized is monumentally better than their humongous counterparts. After all, it’s far and away easier for a bigger player to get hype as a prospect than it is if you’re small — give me the player who had to work his tail off to get where he is regarded rather than the great-sized player who didn’t have to work as hard.

With that in mind, the Devils philosophy should be to capitalize on the hockey men who let players like that drop. I doubt it happens, but if Viggo Bjorck falls to 12 because he is 5’10, he should be selected without hesitation. If Xavier Villeneuve falls to the second round — something that is certainly possible given his stature and discourse around him — he should be selected without hesitation. Rather than participating in the outdated, ill-conceived notion that bigger is better in hockey, I surely hope that the Devils think more soundly.

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Upside Trumps Floor

I think the ideology that upside trumps floor is less important in the later rounds of the draft — hitting on a high-floor, fourth liner or seventh defenseman in the fifth round, for example, is something that is inherently valuable. However, in the first few rounds of the draft, the priority should absolutely be on upside.

A lot of that ties into the previous two points, with the “best pick” typically being the one with the biggest upside while still projecting to play in the NHL. Many times, this is an undersized player. Think Cole Caufield, Lane Hutson, and Logan Stankoven.

If I had a choice between a player who could either be a third-line or first-line caliber player or a player who was a projectable, sure-fire second-line player, I think it is more valuable to risk the chance at the higher upside swing. That’s what separates the hits from the misses in the NHL. Bet on skill and IQ over steadiness and details, and it’s likely that you’ll be rewarded in a big way.

Of course, there are other parts of great-drafting teams that the Devils should adopt — trusting in the numbers (within context) and valuing IQ and hockey sense more than any other trait are two patterns that generally hold true for them. However, these three habits are the most consistent, in my estimation. Pick the best player available, without relying on size to forge biased opinions and who has the biggest upside. That is how you keep a reliable pipeline of high-end talent that you can draw from either to play in the NHL or as trade fodder.

Obviously, this matters a whole lot less if the Devils trade the 12th overall selection, but they’re valuable ideologies to employ nonetheless.

Consider checking out the Devils’ Advocates Podcast, which features weekly episodes chock-full of in-depth content and exciting guest appearances. They’ll be available on this Substack, but you can also listen on your favorite platforms at the following links:

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With the 2026 NHL Entry Draft less than two months away, and the Devils in possession of five picks, I’ll be going through a ton of prospects over the next several weeks in order to prepare readers for appealing targets in every round. At the end, I’ll be doing a full mock draft (with reasoning) so that you’ll be able to decipher my preferred targets. Enjoy!

Next up on the long list of draft targets the Devils should have on their radar is Wyatt Cullen, son of longtime NHLer Matt Cullen, who logged 731 points across more than 1500 games in the show. Wyatt, his son, has shot up draft rankings in recent weeks, and for good reason. After a dominant World Junior performance in which he was far and away the USA’s best player, logging nine points (three goals, six assists) in five games, he has rightfully had the spotlight shone on him quite a bit more as a possible mid-first-round draftee.

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I’ll be the first to admit that my most recent rankings — where I put Cullen 22 — had him too low. Way, way too low. I’ve watched a concerning amount of film in the last few days on who is one of the youngest players in the entire class, and I have to say that he has done nothing but impress me.

Those who have been following me and my work for a while probably know that I am a huge fan of the US National Team Development Program (USNTDP) and the players they produce. In 2022, I was firmly aboard the Logan Cooley at 2nd Overall train. I was quite pleased with the Devils’ having selected three NTDP prospects in 2025, and was pushing pretty hard for LJ Mooney in the middle rounds as well.

With all that in mind, let’s chat about Wyatt Cullen and why he’s among my top targets for the 12th overall pick, should the Devils keep it.

All 2026 NHL Entry Draft Profiles:

12th Overall (First Round): Ethan Belchetz | Ryan Lin | Oscar Hemming
44th Overall (Second Round):
103rd Overall (Fourth Round):
140th Overall (Fifth Round):
172nd Overall (Sixth Round):

By the Numbers

Rankings: #13 by EliteProspects | #24 by Craig Button | #12 by Scouching | #12 by Scott Wheeler | #36 by SMAHT Scouting | #19 by McKeen’s Hockey | #22 by Yours Truly

Size: 6’1, 172 Pounds

Production: 16 Goals & 29 Assists (45 Total Points) in 40 US NTDP Games

As with Oscar Hemming, I’m not taking a whole lot of stock in Cullen’s production. This year’s USNTDP team was a rather weak crop compared to years past, and Cullen suffered for it. He still managed above a point per game pace (45 in 40) and was their best per-game producer despite not starting the year on the team. He certainly put to rest most concerns about his production with his electric World Juniors performance. Despite that setback on a weak team, his star percentage is still that of a first-round talent.

Cullen’s underlying profile paints the picture of a player who is transition dominant more than anything else, but I think his offensive impact is a bit limited by the weak USNTDP team he was a part of. That aside, his work in transition cannot be understated, with the dynamic forward placing in the 96th percentile for zone entries, according to InStat.

As an aside, NHL Central Scouting adjusted Cullen’s height from just over 5’11 to 6’1, with the 17-year-old having grown a couple of inches in the last year. Not that I believe size matters, but he should certainly quell any concerns from those who think it does.

Evaluating Cullen’s Tools

Skating

Cullen is an excellent skater, with above-average marks in speed, acceleration, and agility. He takes almost no time to get to full speed, being able to find that gear with just a few powerful crossovers or strides. With that, he can easily separate from defenders on the rush or in the cycle.

Cullen’s shiftiness cannot be understated, either. He thrives in the interior portions of the ice in general, and he shifts his weight perfectly to cut quickly to the middle, even when under defensive pressure. He can use this weight-shifting ability to get around multiple layers of defense in order to get a quality look from a high-danger area of the ice.

Shooting

Between playmaking and shooting, I think Cullen’s strength definitely leans toward the former, but that certainly doesn’t mean his shot isn’t a plus.

I haven’t seen Cullen take too many slapshots or one-timers, but his wrist shot is electric. His release is compact and powerful, being able to beat goaltenders clean with ease and consistency. He picks corners well, can fire through multiple layers of traffic, and uses decoys off the rush to fool the opposition with head fakes and the threat of a pass.

Cullen is also a bit of a sharpshooter when taking the Jack Hughes angle shot, enjoying forcing the goaltender to treat his possession of the puck as a shooting threat at an incredibly low angle. Sometimes, this is just bait to keep the opposition on their toes, and sometimes, it results in a goal:

Hockey Sense & Playmaking

This, to me, is where Cullen shines. As far as hockey sense, playmaking, and offensive manipulation go, I think he is a top-three player in the class. The way that he sees the ice and reads the play is special.

More than anything, I’ve noticed that Cullen has a wizard-like ability to control and manipulate the positions of defensemen, drawing them closer to wherever he is when he has the puck to open up lanes for his teammates. He can bait multiple defenders at the same time, opening multiple lanes and outlets for a pass, which gives him optionality and versatility to exploit the defense or goaltender further.

As previously mentioned, Cullen works at his highest level while operating in the inner slot, with an inherent ability in his game to get to those areas of the ice with possession of the puck. He keeps his head up at all times and is always scanning the ice for the best way to access the quality areas.

Everything Cullen does is done in order to dominate the high-danger areas of the offensive zone. His off-puck positioning puts him in a position to receive a pass in the slot, support the cycle well, or act as bait for his teammates to capitalize on. His bread and butter will always be drawing defensive attention from multiple players and somehow finding his way through unscathed, either with maintained possession of the puck or through finding the right pass at the right time. It’s a special quality, perhaps one of one in the class.

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Enjoy a couple more clips of Cullen’s unbelievable vision and playmaking chops:

Watch the orientation of Cullen’s head in the above clip — he looks at his pass option, looks back at the goaltender to bait him into believing that a shot is coming, and no-look passes it right to the one-time opportunity.

Puck Skills

I also think Cullen boasts top-five hands in his class, which should come as no surprise given how much he likes to drive to the inside and make plays happen.

He has a ton of tricks in his bag, being able to draw from it in creative ways and at any speed. Cullen uses these dekes and dangles to manipulate the speed of the game and position of the opposition, forcing everyone to play to his pace and under his terms. Even then, when he is on a rush attack, he can use his hands to escape coverage and get through several defenders at full speed or close to it:

Defensive Play

I have very few comments about Cullen’s defensive game. I have always enjoyed his work ethic, and that holds true on the defensive side of things, but as with many offensive dynamos who fall in this range of the draft, he has deficiencies in holding his positioning and preventing others from getting to the interior of the ice. Everything he does is with offense in mind, and he can sometimes get caught over-trying to force a turnover to induce an odd-man rush. I don’t particularly care about those deficiencies, though — what he does offensively is special, he has arguably the second-highest ceiling in the draft (Gavin McKenna is, of course, first), and these defensive habits can be taught.

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Physicality

It flies a bit under the radar with Cullen, but I do think he is just the right amount of physical. He doesn’t chase hits or even really seek them out, but when it is a necessary tool to free up a puck or playmake proactively, he is all aboard. He has landed the odd crushing, open-ice hit, but it isn’t a mainstay in his game and the majority of his hits come while executing forechecks, using well-timed reverse hits to ensure better body positioning than his opponent.

Where Cullen displays a surprising amount of strength is in his ability to keep the puck on his stick. He plays keepaway, and sometimes is forced to do so while under heavy physical duress. Still, he is able to play this part of the game well.

In the event the Devils keep the 12th overall pick, I’ve come to the conclusion in recent days that Cullen is my preferred target. As one of the youngest players in the entire draft, he plays the game in a special way, with an extremely mature understanding of time and space and how to manipulate them. He possesses top-five skill in the entire class, and, given his age and what he did to finish off 2025-26, he is rapidly becoming one of the most projectable top-six contributors in the class. It’s possible that Cullen doesn’t round out his cycle game as much as you would like to see, but he is so dynamic off the rush that I don’t think it matters.

Cullen is committed to the University of Minnesota for the 2026-27 season, so it will certainly be interesting to see how he adapts and adjusts to the higher level of hockey. I have a feeling he’ll be just fine.

NHL Timeline: 2028-29
NHL Stylistic Comparables: Frank Nazar, William Eklund, Mitch Marner

The international competition clips in this article were sourced from the IIHF and their highlights. The NTDP clips were sourced by my own viewings on FloHockey and USAHockey.

Consider checking out the Devils’ Advocates Podcast, which features weekly episodes chock-full of in-depth content and exciting guest appearances. They’ll be available on this Substack, but you can also listen on your favorite platforms at the following links:

Spotify | Apple Podcasts

With the 2026 NHL Entry Draft less than two months away, and the Devils in possession of five picks, I’ll be going through a ton of prospects over the next several weeks in order to prepare readers for appealing targets in every round. At the end, I’ll be doing a full mock draft (with reasoning) so that you’ll be able to decipher my preferred targets. Enjoy!

Next up on the list of potential first-round draft targets for the Devils’ 12th overall pick is Oscar Hemming, whose brother, Emil, was drafted by the Dallas Stars in the first round of the 2024 NHL Entry Draft. Oscar, though, is bigger, meaner, and better.

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Hemming is still 17 years of age, with an August birthday, but spent 2025-26 playing in the toughest division in college hockey, Hockey East, with Boston College. There, he frequented middle-six placement in the lineup. He only logged 19 games of NCAA play, not because of injury, but because of a contract dispute from his Finnish club team, who protested his choice to play in North America from the end of the Hlinka Gretzky Cup to his post-Christmas matriculation to college.

Still, regardless of this hitch, Hemming has made a name for himself as a very highly-touted prospect, and for good reason. The 6’4, 198-pound power winger adjusted to college hockey — and Hockey East, at that — quickly and quite well. As such, he presents as a very appealing target at 12th overall.

All 2026 NHL Entry Draft Profiles:

12th Overall (First Round): Ethan Belchetz | Ryan Lin
44th Overall (Second Round):
103rd Overall (Fourth Round):
140th Overall (Fifth Round):
172nd Overall (Sixth Round):

By the Numbers

Rankings: #17 by EliteProspects | #15 by Craig Button | #10 by SportsNet | #17 by Scott Wheeler | #14 by SMAHT Scouting | #11 by McKeen’s Hockey | #10 by Yours Truly

Size: 6’4, 198 Pounds

Production: 1 Goal & 8 Assists (9 Total Points) in 19 NCAA Games (Boston College)

I’m earnestly not taking much stock in his production for 2025-26, principally because he was held out of playing hockey for four months following his contract dispute with his Finnish team. His nine total points (one goal, eight assists) in 19 games of college hockey, in the hardest division in the country, while playing middle-six minutes as a 17-year-old, after a long hiatus of playing competitive hockey, is undeniably impressive.

From an underlying perspective, he had a decently strong season as well, in particular on the defensive side of the puck. In transition, he was just fine, and he had a negligible impact on offense, but his strong defensive habits certainly showed up in the numbers.

Evaluating Hemming’s Tools

Skating

Hemming’s straight-line speed is among the best in the draft class, I would argue. In his highest gear, he can blaze right past defenders with ease. At his top speed, he is also able to execute dekes and dangles through multiple layers of coverage. His top gear is particularly useful on the breakout, where he can meaningfully contribute to entering the offensive zone under the right circumstances:

The caveat to that is two-fold: 1) it can take him a bit of time to reach said top speed, with a need to add a bit more explosiveness to his stride, and 2) his agility is just average. Both of those are extremely workable, though. Burst ability will come in time as his legs naturally strengthen, and agility and edgework are solvable through training. The most important of the three skating traits is top-end speed, as that’s really the least workable of the three.

Shooting

I quite like Hemming’s shot mechanics, even if he only potted a singular goal with Boston College. As I said, I’m not taking a whole lot of stock in his production, given the uncontrollable circumstances surrounding his contract dispute.

In particular, while I think he could use to add a bit of power to his one-timer — something that will also come in time as he continues to bulk up and strengthen — his wrist shot is electric. Hemming’s release is deceptive, he picks his spots well, and he is able to generate loads of power from his lower body when gearing up for a wrist shot:

Hemming’s nose for the net cannot be understated, either. He is unafraid of facing the physical consequences for pushing for a rebound, tip opportunity, or establishment as a netfront presence. A true net-crasher in every sense of the word when he is off-puck:

That said, I do think he should shoot more. I think he possesses a strength in accessing interior parts of the ice, be it the netfront or the inner slot, and I want to see him be more assertive in trying to score his own opportunities rather than trying for the best play all the time. That isn’t a bad thing, though — at the NHL level, that’s a valuable skill to have. To me, it’s more so about manipulating the goaltender and defense to respect both the shot and the threat of a passing play.

Hockey Sense & Playmaking

At his base level, Hemming is a strong playmaker who scarcely doesn’t make the right play when obvious. He has good vision and a good feel for the play, being able to react to and take advantage of defensive positioning and goaltender body language quite consistently.

At his best, though, Hemming possesses a peak-Simon Nemec-like ability to manipulate the play subtly. Head fakes, directional fakes, slight dekes, board usage, proactive off-puck positioning and physicality, give-and-gos, usage of back-passes; you name it, and Hemming has it in his arsenal. For me, I would like those manipulations on showcase more often than they are — it seemed as though he was more comfortable taking those risks early on in the season but slowly phased out to making the right play instead of the great play.

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Off-puck, I think his positioning is generally great. As previously mentioned, he does have a nose for the net and is comfortable cementing himself at the netfront. Underratedly, though, I think he exploits gaps in coverage comfortably and is able to get into the inner slot for a high-danger chance with regularity.

Puck Skills

I admire the creativity and complexion of the deke arsenal Hemming has. He’s certainly no stranger to making a move to access open areas of the ice or skirt around a potential body or stick check. Toe drags are a regular part of his every-shift play, using it to add a bit of deception and power to his wrist shots or to get around a stick check in the slot. Every now and then, though, he’ll pull out a ridiculous move to get into open ice:

As previously mentioned, being able to execute these moves at full speed is something that you see with Hemming regularly. Complex moves, between-the-legs moves, and even simple dekes at Mach 10 are standard:

Defensive Play

Hemming plays a very mature defensive game for a 17-year-old college hockey player. He pushes play to the outside quite well, identifies the most likely pass route and gets in the way, supports and engages in defensive board battles perfectly, and knows when to lay a body check to better loosen the puck. Better yet, he’s consistent and predictable in the defensive zone. He doesn’t really make mistakes and will be a plus in his own zone on a shift-by-shift basis.

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Physicality

Of course, I would be remiss not to mention how comfortable Hemming is playing the body. Whether it is to loosen a puck up on both sides of the ice, to create space for himself as the puck carrier, or to proactively engage in the sake of getting better positioning, he’s apt at playing bruising hockey.

Very rarely, Hemming will chase a hit for the sake of hitting, but I find that this is few and far between.

I do think that Hemming can occasionally be too passive for what he is on the forecheck — I’d like to see him be a bit more assertive in laying the body and playing more of that crash-and-bang style. I understand that he is cerebral enough to be effective as an F2, but his stature and playing style should be more bulldozer-ish.

There’s a reason I had Hemming as the 10th best player in the 2026 NHL Entry Draft in my rankings. I think that, at his best, he is one of the more deliberate and creative playdrivers in the class, something that is a rarity among power forwards. Even at his baseline play, he makes the right plays on both sides of the ice.

The only questions within his game are in regard to agility and acceleration, but neither of them will be a driving factor in his success as an NHLer. Hemming doesn’t need to be a finesse skater to contribute meaningfully in a lineup, especially given that he can act as an F2 or F3 in transition rather comfortably. If he wants to be more of a facilitator of transition play, adding the burst ability and edgework will be to his benefit, however that doesn’t mean that he isn’t already efficient with the puck touches he does get. At his best, he very well may be a top-line power forward capable of contributing everywhere. At his worst, there is a third liner with some scoring touch who will absolutely be a positive on defense. Either way, the Devils are in good hands if Hemming is the route they take.

NHL Timeline: End of 2027-28
NHL Stylistic Comparables: Timo Meier, Will Cuylle, Matthew Knies

Consider checking out the Devils’ Advocates Podcast, which features weekly episodes chock-full of in-depth content and exciting guest appearances. They’ll be available on this Substack, but you can also listen on your favorite platforms at the following links:

Spotify | Apple Podcasts

Yesterday, we began the many, many-part series covering who the Devils should be targeting with their five draft selections in the 2026 NHL Entry Draft, starting with the 12th overall pick. Of course, this is coming with the assumption that the Devils hold onto the pick. After all, I’ve certainly been a proponent of moving on from it, but the reality is that the draft pick trade talk is more talk than action. Regardless, the first entry on the list — though I would like to point out that this is in no particular order — was Ethan Belchetz.

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Next up is Ryan Lin, a 5’11, 176-pound two-way defenseman who has been ranked anywhere from the top 10 to the mid-late first by pundits and outlets alike. The smooth-skating do-it-all blueliner should absolutely be right near the top of the Devils’ draft list, though, given his statistical profile and what he brings to the table as a prospect.

Let’s not waste any time and jump right into why Lin would be a great get for the Devils with the 12th overall selection.

Draft Profiles:

12th Overall (First Round): Ethan Belchetz
44th Overall (Second Round):
103rd Overall (Fourth Round):
140th Overall (Fifth Round):
172nd Overall (Sixth Round):

By the Numbers

Rankings: #19 by EliteProspects | #26 by Craig Button | #9 by FloHockey | #9 by Scott Wheeler | #17 by SMAHT Scouting | #18 by McKeen’s Hockey | #12 by Yours Truly

Size: 5’11, 176 Pounds

Production: 14 Goals & 43 Assists (57 Total Points) in 53 WHL Games

In NHLe models, Lin has the fourth-highest star probability of any player in the 2026 NHL Entry Draft, solely trailing the projected top three players in the draft (Gavin McKenna, Chase Reid, and Ivar Stenberg). Among defensemen, he, of course, ranks second, behind only Reid, with pre-draft production comparables to Devils legend Scott Niedermayer.

The underlying numbers aren’t quite as favorable for him in all three facets of the game as the film is, though his transition ability does shine through in this regard. Lin ranks in the 93rd percentile for zone entries and 95th percentile for breakouts from his own end, which absolutely tracks

Evaluating Lin’s Tools

Skating

While not something that really jumps out at you, I would certainly argue that Lin has above-average speed, agility, acceleration, and skating mechanics. His strides are fluid and quick, generating a great amount of power while looking somewhat effortless in doing so. He is also fully comfortable with a forechecker in his business, understanding that he can outskate the pressure more often than not:

Lin’s agility and shiftiness are excellent, too, being able to walk the blueline to evade point pressure comfortably without giving up possession of the puck. This comes in handy in all situations and is one of the reasons he can reasonably project to quarterback a second power-play unit.

Shooting

I’m probably lower than most on Lin’s shot, but that doesn’t mean that it isn’t a threat. His one-timer could use to add a bit of oomph to it, which is something that will come in time as he continues to bulk and add strength, but he is accurate with it and can occasionally beat goaltenders clean.

I quite like Lin’s wrist shot, though. His release is smooth, and his ability to get shots through traffic is unparalleled in this draft. The power he gets off on his wristers while looking minimally efforted is uncanny, too — not only can he get seeing-eye shots through traffic without question, he gets them through in a hurry:

Hockey Sense & Playmaking

I don’t think it would be an exaggeration to call Lin the smartest defenseman in the 2026 Draft. He reads the play exorbitantly well and is confident in these abilities. Watching Lin, you’ll notice that he has the puck on his stick a lot, and that’s simply because he knows that he understands the game better than his teammates and wants to execute the best possible play every single time he’s on the ice.

Lin’s passing is a strength, but even more so is his ability to draw defenders’ and goaltenders’ attention before doling out a pass to a player with a now-wide-open opportunity. The clip below is a perfect example of a defender and goaltender having to respect the fake shot from Lin before he finds the open man:

Beyond just how he operates with the puck on his stick — which is special, to be clear — Lin’s off-puck offensive positioning is exquisite. He’s a rather fluid defender in the offensive zone, not necessarily sticking to the blue line but understanding when and where to activate.

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Lin is also no stranger to joining in rush opportunities. As noted before, speed and burst ability are strong points in his game, and he knows that he can blaze to the net in a rush opportunity in order to generate a strong chance or goal:

Puck Skills

Lin does have some deking capabilities, but most of his work is done through his skating and IQ. That said, he will break out a move every now and then and can get around defenders in one-on-one situations. When under extreme pressure, he maintains his calm and will attempt a move or two to try and get out of it instead of passively turning the puck over.

Defensive Play

To me, Lin’s defensive IQ is just as high as his offensive IQ — I would certainly argue that he is the most well-rounded defenseman in the class.

Beyond just his ability to keep pace with a rush attempt while skating backward, which is valuable in and of itself, Lin’s defensive positioning is mostly perfect, especially for his age. He gets in passing lanes in order to keep the play to the outside, and when there is an opportunity to further push play to the perimeter, Lin jumps on it and executes.

The above clip starts with Lin perfectly positioning himself in a place where he can both attack the oncoming forward and block the passing lane to the F2. When he sees an opportunity to push, following a flubbed attempt by the puck-carrier, he takes it and forces play behind the net, where he continues to pester the attacker.

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I love Lin’s ability to make the right, small plays to push the play up-ice. When faced with pressure, he maintains his cool and uses the boards to his advantage often, flipping the puck off of them to get it to a teammate on the breakout when he isn’t able to carry the puck out of the zone himself. You can see that in action, after he intercepts a pass and seals off his opponent on the boards, below:

Physicality

Despite the 5’11, sub-180-pound frame, I actually think Lin is quite physical.

Defensively, he knows when to act with his stick and when playing the body is a valuable tool to separate the man from the puck. It’s a rare combination of attributes — typically players are either too aggressive or too passive, but Lin toes the line rather perfectly.

One area where I have liked Lin’s game and physicality is in using it proactively to create offense. Whether that’s along the boards, on the rush, or elsewhere, you’ll notice when watching him that he is no stranger to nudging/shouldering players away from him while he is carrying the puck in order to create some space or a speed mismatch.

I do think, as of right now, because of his size, that the opposition can occasionally just… bounce off of him. That is something that will only improve over time as he continues to put on some pounds or learn how to better orient himself to make more of an impact. Still, as of right now, I don’t see that as a true deficiency.

It might sound like I’m reasonably high on everything in Lin’s skillset, and, well, that’s because I am. I would certainly argue that he is the most well-balanced blueliner in the entire draft class.

Check out the shift below for a microcosm of what Lin brings to the table in all areas of the game:

In sequence, Lin starts this shift off by identifying a gap in coverage and sliding into open space. They’re unable to connect on the chance, presumably causing a turnover in the process, but Lin is able to strip the puck from the breakout player before bringing it back into the zone himself and executing a give-and-go where he again gets to a prime scoring area, this time resulting in a shot on goal from right around the crease.

Lin, in my eyes, would be an excellent get. The statistical profile is obviously there, but the film is even more favorable to a player projected to play top-four, all-situations minutes. I’m a firm proponent of drafting the best player available rather than drafting for positional need, and Lin certainly qualifies as a candidate for BPA if he is still on the board at the Devils’ selection. On positional need, Lin fills a gap, too — the Devils desperately need to revamp their defense corps with players who can move the puck, and if one of Dougie Hamilton or Simon Nemec is on their way out, they’ll need players like Lin to shoulder the load in due time.

These clips were sourced from a variety of locations. The seeing-eye wrist shot goal was directly via the WHL, the assist in the World Juniors came from the IIHF, and the rest of the clips were sourced from a video made by a good friend of the Devils’ Advocates, Jesse Marshall. The full, 13-plus-minute video can be found here, and Jesse’s phenomenal work can be found at The Athletic, EliteProspects, and the Faceoff-Factor Substack. Check him out on Twitter/X, too.

Consider checking out the Devils’ Advocates Podcast, which features weekly episodes chock-full of in-depth content and exciting guest appearances. They’ll be available on this Substack, but you can also listen on your favorite platforms at the following links:

Spotify | Apple Podcasts

It’s that time of year, folks.

The Devils did not win the draft lottery last night, instead staying true to the 85.7% probability that they stayed put at 12th place.

I have said in the past, and I certainly hold the opinion now, that the Devils should be looking to trade the 12th overall pick in a package for an impact player who fits the age window of the core’s pieces. Someone like Robert Thomas, Matthew Knies, or Brady Tkachuk should he become available.

However, I would be remiss not to lay out some potential draft-day targets with the Devils’ selections in the event that they are unable to get a trade done surrounding the pick. There are certainly some strong NHL-projectable players available with the pick, even in a class that doesn’t necessarily excite me a whole lot.

Beyond just their first-round pick, the Devils have their second, fourth, fifth, and sixth-round pick in the draft this season, and I’ll be on a mission to tell you who I think the Devils could — and should — target with the picks they have. Consider this the first part of a many, many-part series detailing appealing targets for every round the Devils select in.

The first-round targets will come in no particular order, but you’ll certainly get a sense of who I want the Devils to pick by the end of the series, where I’ll have a full mock draft detailing who I want the Devils to pick and why. I digress.

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First up on the docket is Ethan Belchetz of the Windsor Spitfires. The 6’5, 225-pound power winger logged 59 total points in 57 games in the OHL in a top-line, top-power play role. At a couple of points in the beginning of the season, he was a consensus top-five pick, but has slid back by virtue of slowing down his scoring pace a good bit and suffering a broken left clavicle in March that held him out for a good chunk of the 2025-26 season. Still, he presents as an appealing option if the Devils want to add both skill and size up front, with a couple of appealing traits and drawbacks to his game to boot.

By the Numbers

Rankings: #7 by EliteProspects | #13 by Craig Button | #5 by FloHockey | #13 by Scott Wheeler | #13 by SMAHT Scouting | #13 by McKeen’s Hockey | #14 by Yours Truly

Size: 6’5, 225 Pounds

Production: 34 Goals & 25 Assists (59 Total Points) in 57 OHL Games

Frankly, Belchetz’s statistical profile is somewhat weak in comparison to some other targets who will presumably be available at the 12th overall slot. His production pales in comparison to many names well below him in the list, with the 18-year-old ranking 2nd among draft eligibles in the OHL in goal scoring, 6th in total points, and 8th in points per game (1.04). This gives him a pedestrian star probability of 7% in HockeyProspecting’s model, a number that honestly grades out pretty poorly for this slot in the draft.

That said, his underlying profile is pretty strong, so even if the production itself isn’t there, Belchetz should still be getting some statistical flowers:

This visualization, courtesy of Gabe Foley, uses InStat to track expected goal (xG) impacts, transition statistics, and individual events on both sides of the puck. In that regard, Belchetz grades out well both offensively and defensively. His individual impact in those aspects of the game ranking in the 90th and 85th percentile, respectively, absolutely tracks with the eye test, as we will get into below:

Evaluating Belchetz’s Tools

Skating

As you would expect from a player of his size, Belchetz isn’t the fleetest of foot, which is arguably the biggest knock on his overall game. He lacks consistent separation speed, and, though he has shown flashes at points of being able to get loose from defenders with crossovers and burst ability, he’ll need to work on his leg strength to become an average skater.

That said, for his size, he does possess somewhat abnormal agility. Belchetz can knock defenders who are pressuring him loose of coverage through quick turns and strong edges:

Beyond just adding necessary foot speed, Belchetz will need to add a bit more pace in his game when he is participating on offense or in transition. It feels like, at times, he coasts to where he needs to be rather than rushing to get there and putting in true effort all the time. That’s a mentality thing rather than an ability thing, though, which should mean that it is easily fixable.

Shooting

If there is one offensive calling card to Belchetz’s game, it’s his shot.

In particular, his one-timer is powerful and compact, and he is able to get it off at any angle while under duress or pressure. This had been demonstrated time and time again over the course of his 2025-26 season, particularly on the man-advantage:

That doesn’t mean his wrist shot isn’t electric, too, though — it certainly is. Belchetz’s release is pretty dynamic, being able to fool goaltenders outright from mid distance. Where his stride is questionably strong with regard to how much speed he is able to build up, he does generate a ton of power from his legs in his shot mechanism. He picks corners comfortably from all angles and distances, and can shoot through traffic and while under pressure without missing a beat.

From in-tight, Belchetz is able to lift the puck quickly and effortlessly, making him a threat from right around the goalmouth as well. That’s somewhere he’s likely to be often as an NHLer, so that ability is a must in terms of jamming home rebound opportunities.

Hockey Sense & Playmaking

I don’t think Belchetz gets enough credit for his hockey sense or passing ability — most of the talk now is on his two-way game and his shot. That said, I think he can keep pace mentally with top-six players quite comfortably. He knows how plays are going to develop before they happen, being able to perfectly read his teammates’ and opposition’s body language, position on the ice, and orientation and acting proactively while strategizing around those factors.

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Belchetz can also thread passes through traffic with consistency, being able to sauce passes through multiple layers of defense when there isn’t a clear pass option to go to. I’ve noticed that his passing on the rush is a strength, using the threat of his shot to bait goaltenders into assuming it’s coming before doling out a perfect pass through a defender’s legs or body instead. Even when not in a 2-on-1, though, Belchetz loves to draw traffic to himself before getting a pass through said traffic:

Belchetz’s off-puck smarts are excellent, too. He knows where to be, even if he struggles at points with pace and getting there in a timely manner. For a big player, he genuinely excels at getting into open ice undetected, shocking me with how perpetually able to sneak into a shooting lane he was throughout the course of his season. Many of his goals came on sequences just like this one, where he catches the puck mid-stride while streaking into the slot:

Puck Skills

For a big man, Belchetz does have a good arsenal of moves and the wherewithal to use different ones in different circumstances. This isn’t to say that he can deke and dangle around multiple defenders, but he can get by comfortably in one-on-one situations and when the play calls for it off the cycle:

More than his dangles, Belchetz’ puck skills are shown clearly in his tipping and deflection ability. When he positions himself at the netfront — which he does often — he is a threat to get a puck on net from just about anywhere. Of course, unrelated to his puck skills, he is genuinely excellent at getting to rebounds (both his own and rebounds from others), but what impresses me the most about his netfront ability is his hand-eye coordination.

Defensive Play

Entering the season, prior to getting familiar with any of the draftees, I earnestly thought Belchetz was the typical one-dimensional big forward with a big shot, but he is genuinely one of the more defensively mature players in this class.

In particular, I’ve always been impressed with how hard he works to disrupt the opposition on the backcheck. Whereas his on and off-puck pace can be questionable in the offensive zone or in transition, I’ve never really found myself questioning his compete level on the defensive side of the puck. He is aggressive in pursuit of loose pucks in his own end, taking personal offense at the fact his team does not have possession.

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The more impressive part, to me, is his multi-dimensionality when it comes to how he approaches retrieving pucks back. Of course, at times, it’s through imposing his physicality. Others, it’s through positioning and stickwork, with a puck-hound ability to sniff out passing lanes and put himself in position to generate a turnover.

Physicality

As you would expect from a 6’5, 225 pound 18-year-old power forward, Belchetz is reasonably comfortable playing physical hockey. He was penalized on several occasions for borderline hits during the 2025-26 season, which is both a product of playing the body aggressively and being significantly larger than his competition — at times, he would inadvertently make head contact just by proxy of being so much bigger than the player he was hitting.

A no-nonsense player, Belchetz also has absolutely no problem mixing it up when he thinks his teammates have been wronged or targeted with an illegal hit:

At the end of the day, there is some value in having a player of this archetype. Physicality isn’t the be-all end-all that some think it is, but it does have its place and players who are able to generate offense through physicality are generally coveted, especially when said player also has skill to boot. One of those places is around the netfront, which, as we’ve established, Belchetz is very effective. On top of his hand-eye coordination, boxing him out of the goalmouth is a nigh-impossible task for most defenders, as the hulking forward simply outmuscles them most of the time. Elsewhere, he is an excellent forechecker for the most part, using his size to his advantage when his speed doesn’t hamper his ability to get to the puck at a similar time to the defender.

All that said, I actually think Belchetz could use to be a bit more assertive physically. It’s not that I want him to be running all over the place like a pinball, because I don’t think that would be the best use of his overall skillset, but I do think he could be a bit more present, for lack of a better term. He could use to be meaner along the boards — that would serve him well in winning battles.

Belchetz isn’t the prototypical 6’5 power forward that Hockey Men flock to far too early in the draft — there’s certainly some substance here. I had him ranked 14th on my personal list, one predominantly built on upside, but the Devils would be in a good spot if he was their top prospect up front. He checks most boxes, with 30-plus goal upside and the offensive hockey sense and playmaking ability to chip in another 30 assists year after year while playing a physical, bruising game.

That said, the concerns about his skating are legitimate, with periodical lapses between what his head and feet want to do hindering his ability in transition. He could also serve to become more physically imposing and add a bit more pace and consistency to his game. If it all pans out, he certainly looks like a player who could contribute meaningfully in a top-six capacity. At worst, he should be a third-liner with defensive prowess and goal-scoring, PP2 upside.

NHL timeline: 2028-29
NHL comparable: Juraj Slafkovský

Stay tuned for tomorrow’s piece on another potential target!

All videos in this piece came from the OHL on FloHockey.

Consider checking out the Devils’ Advocates Podcast, which features weekly episodes chock-full of in-depth content and exciting guest appearances. They’ll be available on this Substack, but you can also listen on your favorite platforms at the following links:

Spotify | Apple Podcasts

Yesterday, I began a multi-part series giving grades to the individual players who suited up for the New Jersey Devils in 2025-26, a season mired by aggregated disappointment and missed expectations.

Whereas yesterday’s gradebook covered the top six, let’s chat about the most commonly present bottom-six forwards:

Arseny Gritsyuk: A

As far as rookie campaigns go from a former fifth-round draft pick, there’s truly not much more I could have asked for from Arseny Gritsyuk, with the sole want of mine perhaps to be that his production matched the other-worldly underlying numbers.

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The 25-year-old finished the 2025-26 campaign with 13 goals and 31 total points across 66 games while playing in a predominantly third-line role, a respectable total for a first-year NHLer. Diving into Gritsyuk’s underlying profile, though, it’s a bit underwhelming, comparatively.

First things first: according to Evolving Hockey, Gritsyuk’s isolated impact on shot attempts was the second-best in the league, solely behind Luke Evangelista. In other words, the combination of his defensive shot suppression and his ability to drive play to result in a shot attempt for the Devils combined to give him the second-best impact on shot attempt differential of any player in the NHL. That is an insanely valuable piece to have on your third line, and the ripple effect of a line consistently winning its minutes simply cannot be understated.

Because of that absurd ability to control possession, Gritsyuk’s under-the-hood numbers were excellent throughout the season, even compared to his linemates (which we will see shortly). Unsurprisingly, the Devils as a whole controlled a higher percentage of the shot attempts with Gritsyuk on the ice than any other player, surpassing a 58% shot attempt share (CF%) in those 5v5 minutes. Impressively, the second-place regular on the team (Jesper Bratt) was over 2% lower. Naturally, Gritsyuk also led the team in shot on goal share (SF%), at 57.95%.

With Gritsyuk on the ice, the Devils also controlled 56.09% of the scoring chances and 51.08% of the high-danger chances. This culminated in an expected goal share (xGF%) of 53.67%, largely a product of the Devils allowing fewer expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) with Gritsyuk on the ice than any other regular.

Everywhere you look, Gristyuk is among the team lead in just about every statistic. For a rookie, this is an incredible feat, and one I would expect him to build upon production-wise in 2026-27. That said, having 13 goals and 31 points feels a bit underwhelming considering just how strong his underlying profile was this past regular season. Extending him to a long-term deal should be a priority, because there’s a real possibility of a major breakout as soon as next season.

Cody Glass: B

There was a small stretch of hockey in 2025-26 where Cody Glass was the best player on the Devils. After all, he played some of the best hockey of his career this past season, scoring a career-high 19 goals on the back of a probably unsustainable 18.3% shooting percentage (S%). He also scored the second-most points of his career (26) and played 70+ games for just the second time in his NHL tenure.

It is worth noting, too, that Glass had a career-best 54.0% faceoff win percentage, for those who value that statistic.

Once the revelation that Glass and Gritsyuk were a power combo was found, the former’s underlying statistics took a massive upturn, as well. When those two were paired together, No. 12 had an xGF% of 55.36% and the Devils controlled the vast majority of, well, everything: 58.87% of the shot attempts, 58.57% of the shots on goal, and 53.24% of the scoring chances.

So, then, why just a B for Glass for 2025-26 as a whole?

Well, in the minutes that he was not playing with Gritsyuk, he struggled. Sans the rookie, Glass had an xGF% of just 44.32%. He was underwater in every possession metric, as well. This gave him a season-wide xGF% of 48.89%, a number that is both not something to be proud of but also anomalous in recent seasons for the pivot. With that, and with the likelihood of him being reunited with Gritsyuk in 2026-27 being reasonably high, I’m not overly concerned about the underlying numbers away from him moving forward.

Still, though, it’s hard to justify anything above a B for Glass, considering that he did truly struggle away from someone who was one of the best players on the team.

Lenni Hämeenaho: C+

When Lenni Hämeenaho first entered the league, lining up alongside Glass and Gritsyuk, it looked as though this would be a team trajectory-altering third line for years to come. They were dominant on the scoresheet, with Hämeenaho logging four points in his first six career NHL games, and they were dominant under the hood.

To be clear, the under-the-hood dominance never really changed. That trio logged a grand total of 123:49 together at 5v5, and in those minutes, the Devils controlled 58.48% of the xGF%, 70% of the goals, 59.43% of the shot attempts, 53% of the scoring chances, and 52.63% of the high-danger chances. As a third line, there really wasn’t much more you could have asked of them. Hämeenaho was certainly a part of their success, being precisely what they needed from a complementary perspective and contributing on both sides of the puck with savvy playmaking, strong off-puck positioning, and excellent defensive awareness.

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When Gritsyuk got hurt, though, Hämeenaho struggled immensely. When it was just him and Glass on the third line, the duo posted an xGF% of 41.01%. They were more or less fine defensively, but were completely unable to generate anything worthwhile on offense. In the near-60 minutes Hämeenaho played apart from Glass, his numbers dipped even more, sporting an xGF% of 39.63%. Beyond just pointing out that Gritsyuk was the glue that held that trio together, it’s clear that Hämeenaho wasn’t really prepared for the NHL when he had to be a driver of offense.

Hämeenaho’s production dropped off following Gritsyuk’s injury, too, and he ended the season with just eight points (two goals, six assists) in 33 games. I don’t think he did anything special enough to pencil him into the 2026-27 starting lineup, though I will say that if he is a sure thing there, he needs to be alongside the two players he had the most success with.

Maxim Tsyplakov: C-

Maxim Tsyplakov was part of the return in the trade that offloaded Ondrej Palat to the New York Islanders. Upon entering the lineup, though, it very easily was determined that the 27-year-old Russian was kind of just a guy.

Tsyplakov ended up scoring one goal and one assist in 22 games in New Jersey, and in those minutes, the Devils certainly struggled. He had an xGF% of 44.73% and the Devils were well under par in all possession metrics while he was on the ice.

I earnestly don’t have a whole lot to say about Tsyplakov’s season other than that, somehow, relative to other fourth-liners, his xGF% was actually somewhat sound. When he was on the ice, he was mostly invisible other than a couple of games where he looked like he could meaningfully contribute to generating chances every now and then.

Beyond that, though, I have nothing. He isn’t worth the $2.25 million AAV pricetag at this point, something that I originally thought was possible in the right playing environment when he was traded to New Jersey. Now, it’s clear that his $2.25 million is better served in a different organization.

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Nick Bjugstad: D

Nick Bjugstad was brought in just prior to the Olympic break as the projected fourth-line center for 2025-26 and 2026-27. After all, the Luke Glendening experiment did not work in New Jersey, and the Devils desperately needed someone at that spot who wouldn’t get hemmed in religiously.

Bjugstad was fine in some games, but honestly, it was more of the same in the aggregate. In his 5v5 minutes, the Devils controlled just 41.45% of the xGF%, a reasonably unacceptable number considering they traded assets for someone who was just 5% better than Glendening and who got hemmed in consistently himself.

Of course, it was a small sample size of just 26 games. That’s not a large enough sample to truly judge whether or not Bjugstad will have been a worthwhile trade in due time, especially considering that his prior history and underlying numbers have generally been strong. At 6’6 and 210 pounds, he was also a step in the right direction of the Devils getting both bigger and more skilled — Bjugstad’s strong track record and skillset should take precedence over the tiny sample size when looking toward next season.

Still, the two assists and very underwhelming underlying numbers make it hard to justify giving him anything higher than a D for the 2025-26 season, something that I can only imagine and hope will improve for next season.

Paul Cotter: D+

Everything, on paper, is telling me that I should want Paul Cotter to get traded for surplus value, and yet, for the right price, I want him back in the black and red next season. To me, it’s clearly just a testament to his shootout ability and the quantifiable monetary value that brings in the standings, but he did not have a good season otherwise.

From an underlying perspective, Cotter was only narrowly better than Bjugstad. His xGF% was 41.81%, and that’s coming without the luxury of having a small timeframe to adjust to systems and teammates. Sure, a lot of those minutes came alongside who is probably outright the worst player in the league (Glendening, play in Philly be damned), but Cotter didn’t do much to force the Devils’ front office’s hand in making a move sooner to address that, either.

The sole reason for a D+ instead of a matching grade to Bjugstad is the shootout utility and a bit more production. He was a 40% shooter in the shootout this season, helping the Devils to win a couple of extra points, and scored nine goals in total for the 2025-26 season. A couple of those were testaments to that breakaway ability, something that I genuinely think would be further exploited if the Devils played a freer system.

Still, to label Cotter’s season in the aggregate as anything other than poor would be a stretch.

The next installment of this series will cover forwards who were not regulars for the Devils come season’s end, be it from getting moved to another team (Palat, Glendening), being injured (Noesen, Dadonov), or just being a fill-in (the Halonens of the team).

Be sure to catch the NHL Draft Lottery tonight at 7 PM EST to see where the Devils end up having a first-rounder! Keep in mind that there is an ~85% chance of them landing at 12th Overall.

Consider checking out the Devils’ Advocates Podcast, which features weekly episodes chock-full of in-depth content and exciting guest appearances. They’ll be available on this Substack, but you can also listen on your favorite platforms at the following links:

Spotify | Apple Podcasts

2025-26 was disappointing for the New Jersey Devils, to put it lightly. The once-consensus Cup-contending team fell from atop the Eastern Conference to outside of the playoff race in a span of a couple of months and were unable to rebound to relevancy.

With that, let’s talk about the individual report cards for, well, everybody. Forwards, defensemen, goaltenders, players who were traded, and players who solely contributed to a few games.

First up are the forwards who ended the season in a top-six capacity:1

Connor Brown: B

If this were a gradebook based solely on the time players spent in the top six rather than all-season long, I think it would have been appropriate for Brown to receive an A. However, when looking past his time alongside Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt, there was a bit more to be desired.

To put it in perspective a little bit, when Brown was alongside those two at 5v5, which he was for 246:52, the trio sported an expected goal share (xGF%) of 54.94%. The Devils controlled 56.42% of the shot attempts, 55.75% of the shots on goal, 54.30% of the scoring chances, and 52.08% of the high-danger attempts. They also outscored their opponent 13-12, with Brown logging 21 points in the Devils’ last 25 games.

Because of that, Brown ended up tying his career-high of 43 points.

However, when Brown played away from those two, those numbers plummeted. In his 636:07 away from both Jack and Jesper, Brown had an xGF% of just 45.64%. The Devils were outscored 26-21 in those minutes, and they controlled fewer than 48% of the shot attempts and shots on goal and fewer than 45% of the scoring chances and high-danger chances. That comes in the context of the majority of his time away from the top six being spent with Cody Glass, who mostly had a very strong season, and Arseny Gritsyuk, who was one of the best under-the-hood players on the team.

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Brown had a season-long xGF% of under 50% and the career-high point totals are certainly skewed by playing alongside the Devils’ best two players who were playing their best respective hockey of the season as well. Past his time with those two, Brown had 22 points in his first 50 games, an 82-game pace of 36. As such, it’s hard to give him anything more than a B for the full season.

Dawson Mercer: C+

Every season, the story seems to be the exact same with Dawson Mercer. He plays a full 82-game season, which is valuable, but is incredibly streaky and has consistently underwhelming impacts on the game in spite of his linemates. It feels as though we’ve been waiting for a true breakthrough with Mercer since his sophomore season, only to be met with him taking a step backward and then plateauing.

Still, his 42 points were the highest point totals he has put up in three seasons, and he did reach the 20-goal threshold for the third time in his five-year career.

The underlying numbers he put up when playing with his most common linemates, Nico Hischier and Timo Meier, are excellent. That trio’s xGF% bordered on 60%, even if their actual goal share was just 41.18% at 5v5. They controlled almost 61% of the high-danger chances and had a hefty advantage in every other possession metric. To boot, they largely did that while matching up against the opposition’s best every night.

To me, though, the difference lies in the fact that the other two players on Mercer’s line were far more directly responsible for their success than he himself was. This is heavily indicated by Mercer’s RAPM chart, which shows isolated impacts in various parts of the game:

Not great, right? At least offensively, it’s very… blah.

Mercer’s two-way play has typically always been his calling card, and the defensive side of things certainly showed up in his isolated impacts for 2025-26. That said, though, I’m always left feeling unfulfilled after analyzing Mercer’s production relative to his deployment, and I’m not sure that’s all that arguable. It certainly doesn’t help that he only scored eight 5v5 goals — the lowest total of his career and the first time he did not hit double-digits — on 13.91 individual expected goals (ixG) and 105 shots on goal.

With that, it’s difficult for me to be genuinely satisfied with Mercer’s overall performance in 2025-26. The defensive side of things is all fine and well, but he hasn’t been able to drive play offensively or chip in on the scoresheet as much as he should be able to. A pretty clear C+, to me.

Jack Hughes: A

I’m sure there will be some who are agitated at Jack getting an A, considering he missed substantial time once again in 2025-26, but this isn’t a gradebook based on availability. Jack’s play, specifically his post-Olympic break play, earned him an A.

Prior to his freak hand injury, he was his typical self, with 20 points in the first 17 games of the season. After he came back, clearly still ailing and visibly playing with essentially one hand, he still managed to be a near-point-per-game player, with 16 points in 19 games. His shot was clearly not there yet when he returned, a direct product of playing while still hampered by injury and a massive cast, but he managed to be just as influential on the scoresheet by virtue of his other-worldly IQ and ability to manipulate time and space with the puck on his stick.

After suffering another small injury prior to the Olympics — something that chuckleheads zeroed in on to try and spin a narrative that he did not care about the Devils — Jack showed up to the Olympic break presumably healthy, shed his cast, and was immediately Team USA’s best forward. Despite the limited bottom-six role, he led the team in goals (4), tied for the lead among forwards in total points (7), and, of course, scored the Golden Goal.

Upon returning to the regular season following the Olympics, Jack fully had as much swagger in his game as we’ve ever seen, absolutely dominating every opponent at every opportunity. Not only was he clearly the best player on the team, he was arguably the best player in the league.

The only player to have more points post-Olympics than Jack’s 42 was Connor McDavid (43). Jack also had the eighth-most goals (18) and the second most shots on goal (101). That’s an 82-game pace of 59 goals and 137 points.

As such, Jack ended the season tops on the team in points, with 77, and second on the team in goals, with 27, despite appearing in just 61 games. That’s easily the best season-long per-game output of his career. To me, he certainly cemented what I already believed to be true — that Jack Hughes is a top five player in the National Hockey League when healthy.

Jesper Bratt: B+

I genuinely debated the idea of giving Bratt some sort of A as well, but I feel as though his slight dip in production prevented that from being realistic.

Still, I would be remiss if I did not mention that Bratt was atop the Devils in just about every underlying metric for the season. His 55.55% xGF% was first on the team, with the Devils generating more expected goals per 60 minutes (xGF/60) with No. 63 on the ice than any other player. Bratt’s shot attempt share (CF%) of 55.93% was second on the team, his scoring chance share (SCF%) of 55.48% was third, and his high-danger chance share (HDCF%) of 53.07% was fourth.

That xGF% output at 5v5 was a significant increase over what we saw in 2024-25 (52.22%) and aligns much better with what we have been used to with Bratt for much of his career.

In terms of his isolated impact on the game, Bratt had the 11th-best impact on xG in the league among forwards, according to Evolving Hockey. It’s certainly hard to complain about that.

For all of his goal scoring woes predating the Olympic break, of which there were many, Bratt actually ended up scoring more goals (22) than were expected of him (21.17) for the first time since 2022-23, a product of positive regression and playing next to the most on-fire player in the league after the Olympics. At 5v5, though, he was still below expected for the year, with 12 goals on 13.61 ixG.

All that said, though, it is important to point out that his 71 points in 82 games, while still more than respectable and representative of a top-line forward’s production, is the lowest output he has had since 2020-21. To me, a lot of that had to do with the fact that he was playing in a system not conducive to his strengths for much of the season, but that does not mean that it was not a disappointing output given recent history.

Still, given that, it’s hard to justify a grade any higher than a B+ because of said production.

Nico Hischier: B

Much of what I said for Bratt holds true for Hischier as well, with diminished production relative to what we have become accustomed to from the captain. Before we get into that, though, let’s first chat about his strong underlying statistics.

Right behind Bratt on the xGF% rankings for the Devils was No. 13, who ended the season with a very strong 55.12%. The Devils controlled 53.99% of the shot attempts, 52.98% of the shots on goal, 53.79% of the scoring chances, and 55.42% of the high-danger scoring chances with Hischier on the ice. As I said earlier, most of this came against the opposition’s top competition, to boot.

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Again, though, the production simply isn’t where it likely should be given how talented Hischier is. His 66 points were his lowest output since 2021-22, with his team-leading 28 goals being the second-lowest output in that timeframe as well. Those 28 goals came on 32.16 ixG as well, with Hischier certainly contributing to the team-wide finishing woes that plagued them all season.

I do earnestly believe that the Devils would be significantly better off playing Hischier in a more expanded offensive role while giving the truly daunting defensive matchups to a bona fide shutdown line — there’s a 90-point player hiding in the shadows of difficult matchups. Until that happens, though, I’ll likely continue to be underwhelmed by his production, even despite his penchant for winning his minutes while playing in some of the hardest minutes in the league.

Timo Meier: C-

Finally, there is Meier, who is a probable candidate for the most snakebitten player award for 2025-26.

The near-30-year-old ended the season with 24 goals and 44 points in 77 games, his worst raw output since the COVID-shortened 2020-21, and the worst per-game output since 2017-18. For being the team’s highest-paid forward, that’s not acceptable. The good news, though, is that there is a good amount of reasoning for this being more of an outlier than a trajectory.

From an underlying standpoint, there was a lot to like about Meier’s season. He was third on the Devils in xGF% (54.08%) — largely coming in tough matchups as well — and was well-above water in every possession metric as well. In addition to that, Meier generated by far the most ixG of any season he has ever played in the league, with his 24 goals coming on a ridiculous 38.04 ixG. That’s the ninth-highest ixG total of any player in the NHL.

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With that in mind, entering 2025-26, Meier had always been a very-slightly-above-average finisher, with his 217 career goals coming on 214.83 ixG. Of course, he’s now below-expected for his career, but this was certainly an outlier in that regard. As such, it’s probable that he bounces back to reality with an average-at-worst finishing season.

Meier’s per-60 shot attempt numbers and individual scoring chance numbers were also on par with what he was producing in San Jose, where he was bordering on a top-15 winger in the NHL.

Of course, his 2025-26 output is not a hypothetical, though, even if it is an outlier. That production is dismal, and, even if I truly believe in my heart of hearts that he will rebound next season, this is a conversation we have had in multiple seasons now. He gets a B+ for his underlying profile and an F for his production, thus resulting in the C-.

The next iteration of this exercise, which will be out tomorrow, will cover the players who ended the year in the bottom six — stay tuned!

Consider checking out the Devils’ Advocates Podcast, which features weekly episodes chock-full of in-depth content and exciting guest appearances. They’ll be available on this Substack, but you can also listen on your favorite platforms at the following links:

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Three days ago, I fleshed out three players I would consider to be “buy-low” candidates for the New Jersey Devils: Dmitri Voronkov, Jordan Spence, and Matvei Michkov.

Those three players, for some reason or another, should be considered buy-lows, either because their production does not or did not match their underlying process, because they are likely to produce extremely strong numbers in a role more expanded than what they are currently getting, or because they are on the fritz with coaching or management and could have their perceived value lessened because of it.

Now, let’s chat about three more players who fit that bill in the name of exploring what Sunny Mehta can do as the new GM of the New Jersey Devils that would better the franchise in both the short and long term:

Kent Johnson, C/LW, 23

Selected one pick after Luke Hughes was drafted in the 2021 NHL Entry Draft, Kent Johnson, who was a former teammate of the Devils’ budding defenseman at the University of Michigan, finds himself as a prime buy-low candidate for a club looking to add a top-six piece at value.

The Columbus Blue Jacket put up a disappointing 2025-26 season by just about all accounts, logging just seven goals and 22 points across 76 games while being a healthy scratch on multiple occasions. However, this also came with a perplexing coaching decision to play Johnson in a third-line-or-worse capacity after a career-best breakout season in 2024-25.

Two seasons ago, in the only campaign in which Johnson was put in a top-six role with regularity, the 23-year-old forward put up 24 goals and 57 points in 68 games, an 82-game pace of 29 goals and 69 points. Not only that, but his isolated impacts painted a picture of a player who was greatly contributing on both sides of the puck:

As a then-22-year-old who had a breakout season under his belt, there was truly no reason to back him out of a permanent top-six role. Some playstyles are suited for the top six and not a bottom-six checking role, and Johnson’s style certainly fits that bill. He is an excellent playmaker with superb vision and a plus shot, but hardly engages in laying actual hits. In transition, he is impressive and quick to enter the offensive zone.

According to LB-Hockey, in 2024-25, Johnson ranked in the 90th percentile for zone offense and 87th percentile for transition play. For a player with little to no physicality in his game, he was surprisingly ranked in the 90th percentile for forechecking pressures, which, when you watch him play, absolutely tracks. He operates on the forecheck similarly to how Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt do: cerebrally. Rather than playing crash-and-bang hockey to retrieve the puck, those three outwit their opponents and bait them into putting the puck into a position where they or their teammates can pounce on it.

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I could only imagine the headaches Johnson, Jack, and Bratt would cause opposing defenders on the forecheck if they were on the ice together. It would be a supremely frustrating line to play against, simply because others wouldn’t be able to keep up mentally.

I, for one, would sign up for that in a heartbeat, especially given that Johnson is just 23 years of age. I can’t imagine he would be supremely expensive to acquire, but even if he cost the equivalent of a first-round pick, I would be ecstatic at the acquisition.

Matias Maccelli, LW, 25

Another young forward who is a quintessential buy-low candidate is Matias Maccelli of the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Maccelli, 25, is coming off a 17-goal, 39-point season in which he played predominantly in a third-line role. Much like Johnson, Maccelli’s previous career-high in points (57) far surpasses his production from 2025-26, with the principal difference between the two situations being that Maccelli’s underlying numbers are more consistently positive than Johnson’s, even if Maccelli’s peak was lower than his counterpart's.

For Maccelli, the underlying numbers have always suggested that he both 1) is a slight net positive both offensively and defensively, and 2) has more in the tank to give, given his individual attributes and the little things he does on the ice.

To illustrate point #2, we can look to LB-Hockey’s visualization to see how he ranks in individual traits:

The zone defense certainly leaves something to be desired in terms of what he does around the puck, but that does need to be taken within the context of him consistently having strong defensive underlying numbers — whatever he is or is not doing in the defensive zone is resulting in net-positive outcomes.

With that, we can see a few areas of offensive expertise for Maccelli: playmaking, finishing, forechecking pressure, forecheck battling, and playing through contact. Sounds like a player the Devils could certainly use in their top-six, doesn’t it?

James Mirtle, on Puck Report, made a comment that Maccelli is likely to remain unqualified by the Maple Leafs and become a free agent. To that extent, I suppose there is nothing stopping the Devils from pursuing him in free agency. With that in mind, though, I would think it prudent to spend a small asset to get his RFA rights, thus giving the Devils team control over him. With that in mind, perhaps he is the truest definition of a buy-low candidate the league has to offer.

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Olen Zellweger, LHD, 22

Prior to the first round of playoffs, I’d have said there was no way Olen Zellweger was going anywhere, considering how well he played in 2025-26 for the Anaheim Ducks. And yet, he has been a healthy scratch throughout the playoffs, and rumors are starting to come to the surface of him potentially being an offseason trade candidate.

The 22-year-old left-shot defenseman is precisely the type of player the Devils need on the back-end: a fast, transition-oriented, playmaking, puck-moving defenseman who excels in third-pair minutes.

At the beginning of the season, his play had him in conversation for surpassing Pavel Mintyukov in the organizational depth chart, though those narratives eventually came to a close as the season progressed. Still, among the 221 defensemen who logged at least 400 minutes of 5v5 time in 2025-26, Zellweger ranked 88th in points per 60 minutes, notably ahead of Moritz Seider, Mackenzie Weegar, Brandon Montour, and Luke Hughes.

From an on-ice perspective, Zellweger’s influence on the offensive side of things cannot be understated, even if there is still certainly room to grow defensively:

As such, his production will likely rise substantially to match his underlying metrics in due time. After all, process leads to results, and that holds especially true at younger ages. Zellweger is just 22 years of age, so there is reason to believe that this slope toward relevancy…

…will only continue growing, especially as he finds his defensive footing.

Even if he doesn’t grow defensively, the way that Zellweger manipulates the offensive zone with the puck on his stick is special. There’s a reason that he ranks above the 90th percentile in all of individual creation, zone entry volume, zone entry efficiency, zone entry offense, and sustained offensive-zone pressure in LB-Hockey’s model.

If the Devils are serious about improving their defense corps’ puck-moving ability — which they should be if they want to compete for the Cup — Zellweger presents as an easy, buy-low target to make that improvement.

Of course, there are plenty of other names who would fit this list, but between the previous iteration and this one, I think the six most obvious or most appealing buy-low candidates have been fleshed out. We’re entering an era in which hockey decisions — at least for the Devils — are going to be further rooted in data-driven analysis, and, as such, players like these become all the more appealing, especially given the cost of acquisition.

Consider checking out the Devils’ Advocates Podcast, which features weekly episodes chock-full of in-depth content and exciting guest appearances. They’ll be available on this Substack, but you can also listen on your favorite platforms at the following links:

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A couple of days ago, I laid out a few lessons I hope new Devils’ GM Sunny Mehta brings with him from his five years and two Stanley Cups with the Florida Panthers. One such lesson was “buy low,” which was something they certainly employed over the years, buying low on Sam Reinhart (1st-round pick and Devon Levi), Sam Bennett (2nd-round pick and Emil Heineman), and Brandon Montour (3rd-round pick). All three of those players were 26 years old or younger, perfectly matching the ages of the core members of the team.

In that regard, there are certainly some names that qualify for buy-low trade candidates who fit the core age window. “Buy-low” could mean a few things:

1. A player who is underperforming performance-wise relative to their underlying numbers and deployment.

2. A player who has strong production relative to their role but whose underlying numbers suggest they could truly blossom given more deployment.

3. A player performing as expected given their deployment and underlying numbers but who are on the fritz in their organization for some reason or another.

Either way, there are options. Let’s talk about them:

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Dmitri Voronkov, LW/C, 25

Things certainly changed for the Blue Jackets and many of their players under Rick Bowness, who will be behind the bench for them next season as well. One such player who was negatively impacted by his presence as Columbus’ head coach was 25-year-old Dmitri Voronkov. Almost immediately after Bowness was hired, Voronkov was relegated to a fourth-line role, putting up just three points in the final 18 games of the season while in said role.

Prior to that, though, Voronkov was a staple on the Blue Jackets’ second line, totaling 16 goals and 29 points in 45 games, an 82-game pace of 29 goals and 53 total points. At his best, he is a brute force, using physicality to generate chances for himself and his teammates, being a pest along the boards, and being a strong netfront presence. At 6’5, 234 pounds, he is hard to knock off the puck, a necessary strength within his game considering that he is not the fleetest of foot.

From an underlying perspective, there’s quite a bit to like and certainly reason to believe that his career-high of 23 goals and 47 points, both of which were achieved in 2024-25, is a low-end projection of what he is capable of in the right role. I don’t think it would be unreasonable to project him as a 30-plus goal scorer when playing with the likes of Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt.

Voronkov has one year left on his current contract, one that has an AAV of $4.175 million. Given his strangely low deployment under Bowness, it’s easy to assume that he’s on the fritz in the organization and would be served well by a change of scenery. I think the Devils would be wise to pursue him.

Jordan Spence, RHD, 25

Those in the hockey analytics community should be well versed with 25-year-old right-handed defenseman Jordan Spence, but he is a prime buy-low candidate who could — and will — shine in an expanded role.

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You’ll notice that I labeled him as a buy-low candidate despite his having only improved his production year-over-year, with a career-high of four goals and 31 total points in 73 games while playing under 19 minutes per night. From an underlying perspective, though, there is certainly reason to believe that he will be a high-end two way defenseman who could put up 40+ points per season comfortably in an expanded role.

At this point in time, Spence is an expiring RFA, and though I’m sure the Senators would want to keep him in the organization, he is a player I would certainly be comfortable sending a strong trade package for. This holds especially true if the Devils are going to trade away one or both of Dougie Hamilton and Simon Nemec; after all, they still certainly need puck-movers, even with those two in the club.

How important the Senators view Spence to their organization is certainly still up in the air. In Game 2 of the first round, he played nearly 40 minutes in a double-overtime game. Two games later, facing elimination, he played just 17:00. It’s comprehensible that, when healthy, they don’t see him as more than a third-pair caliber player. With that, he presents as a clear buy-low candidate, and one I would be ecstatic to acquire.

Matvei Michkov, RW, 21

I want to preface this with “it’ll probably never happen,” but I would be remiss if I didn’t daydream about the possibility of a division rival selling low on a point-per-game potential player.

The reason it would be “selling low” on 21-year-old Matvei Michkov isn’t even his production relative to his underlying statistics — he is fourth in the 2023 NHL Draft class despite not playing at all in 2023-24, with 114 points in 161 total games. Since he entered the league, he’s second in the class in scoring, solely behind Connor Bedard. In his rookie campaign, Michkov scored 26 goals and 63 total points in 80 games while playing in a second-line role. In a third-line role this season, he totaled 20 goals and 31 points in 81 games.

His ice time diminishing is a product of why I would consider Michkov a buy-low candidate. After all, the reduction is a direct product of, well, dislike from the coaching staff.

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It doesn’t take Sherlock Holmes to decipher that Rick Tocchet, head coach of the Philadelphia Flyers, is not a fan of Michkov for one reason or another. Tocchet, in his first year in a coaching role with Philly, has publicly lambasted the Russian-born 21-year-old on multiple occasions. He has mentioned Michkov’s physical fitness no fewer than half a dozen times through the season, with questionable-at-best timing to his jabs. One such example came in a game in which Michkov had a season-low 10:21 of ice time in an overtime loss to the Los Angeles Kings back in early February, where Tocchet said that the winger “did not come into camp in shape” and said that it is “hard to play yourself in shape.”

If that were an early-season quote, I understand the tough love. However, if you earnestly believe that a half-point-per-game-plus player is still out of shape 60% through an 82-game NHL season, I’m not sure what to tell you. How Tocchet’s quotes read to me, and many others, were just as a public jab and nothing more, especially given just how many times he repeated that notion even when the question had nothing to do with Michkov’s fitness. Tocchet also insisted on playing Michkov at left wing, with the youngster outwardly expressing that he is more comfortable on the right and had played there for his entire life.

Michkov was also benched in the most recent playoff game against the Pittsburgh Penguins, a move that admittedly has more to do with his weak postseason performance rather than just the ire of his coach.

Regardless, the writing has been on the wall for quite some time that Michkov may be unhappy in Philadelphia. I, for one, would be ecstatic at the possibility of him playing in the Devils’ top six.

Stylistically, the way that he manipulates time and space is special, regardless of whether he is on the perimeter or interior of the offensive zone or if he is under pressure or not. His shot is electric, his hockey sense is high-end, and his board work is extremely underrated.

To me, he is exactly what the Devils are looking for in their top six. At just 21 years of age, too, the sky truly is the limit with him.

There are certainly some other names who qualify for this exercise — Nick Robertson (Toronto), Mattias Maccelli (Toronto), and Kent Johnson (Columbus) come to mind — but these are the three that, in my opinion, are most appealing. Of course, trading for any of these players is probably unlikely. However, if the goal is to buy low on someone who can conceivably contribute to a top-six or top-four role, akin to how the Panthers acquired Reinhart, Bennett, and Montour for pennies on the dollar, these are the first players who would be on my list.

Consider checking out the Devils’ Advocates Podcast, which features weekly episodes chock-full of in-depth content and exciting guest appearances. They’ll be available on this Substack, but you can also listen on your favorite platforms at the following links:

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I don’t think it’s a secret whatsoever that the Devils’ goalies were under fire by most following and covering the team, something that was only further exacerbated by former GM Tom Fitzgerald’s perplexingly-timed two-year, $6 million AAV extension to Jacob Markstrom. Markstrom, who will turn 37 next season, was certainly the inferior of the two main Devils’ netminders in 2025-26. Jake Allen, just one year his younger, was again strong in the aggregate in a backup/1B role, though he too had some downs throughout the season.

Before we begin on evaluating how the Devils’ goaltending stacks up against others and if it is a genuine cause for concern, I think it’s first important to flesh out the way that goalie statistics have changed dramatically over the last few years. This is a direct product of a league-wide philosophy change surrounding quality of chances, with every NHL team deprioritizing shot volume in favor of shot quality. As such, conventional goalie statistics — principally save percentage (SV%) — are becoming more and more obsolete as time goes on and players get better and better at rattling off high-danger looks. On top of that, the NHL’s puck tracking capabilities have only improved year-over-year, with shots regularly being taken off of the box scores by virtue of the league determining that the trajectory of even a saved puck not being on net.

Given that, I’d like to point out the most user-friendly alternative in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). Of course, shots alone cannot measure the quality of the look, thus why expected goals (xG) have become so much more impactful as an evaluation tool over simple possession metrics. For those who are unfamiliar with advanced statistics, I do have an analytics guide readily available on the Substack, but in easy-to-understand terms, xG measures the quality of a shot attempt using a myriad of factors to determine the probability that it results in a goal, using a historical database of shots that have a similar/the same leadup/location/speed/angle/etc. If a model determines that a shot attempt has a 25% chance of ending up as a goal, its xG value would be 0.25.

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GSAx, then, is the difference between the number of goals actually allowed by a goaltender and the xG he faced. If a goalie faced 3.01 xG and only allowed two goals, he would have a GSAx of +1.01. Conversely, if a goalie faced 1.99 xG and allowed three goals, he would have a GSAx of -1.01.

There are certainly still valuable statistics outside of just GSAx — delta save percentage (dSV%), or the difference between a netminder’s expected save percentage (xSV%) and his actual SV%, paints a picture of how a goaltender has performed relative to his defensive environment. Looking at a goalie’s high-danger save percentage (HDSV%), medium-danger save percentage (MDSV%), and low-danger save percentage (LDSV%) will give an idea of how a goalie performs on certain types of shots.

With that all fleshed out, let’s chat about the state of the Devils’ goaltending room, and if there is genuine cause for concern:

In my gauge of the situation surrounding the Devils’ goalies, Allen has never been considered the, or even a problem. His $1.8 million AAV cap hit is well-below what he should be earning, and he has outright been one of the best secondary options in the NHL since he joined the team two-plus years ago.

According to HockeyStats, of the 66 goaltenders who logged at least 20 games this season, Markstrom ranked 59th in GSAx, sporting a grand total of -11.37 on the season1. In other words, he gave up over 11 goals more than he was expected to, given the quality and quantity of shots he faced in his 44 games. On a per-60 basis, Markstrom ranked 57th.

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However, it is important to note that this number is heavily skewed by two absolutely atrocious outings. The one that should immediately come to mind is the 9-0 walloping that the Devils underwent by the New York Islanders on January 6th, in which Markstrom ended the night with a GSAx of -6.83. That isn’t just the worst performance of the season, it’s actually the worst performance of all time in terms of GSAx.

What flew under the radar for most, though, was the Devils’ 8-4 loss against the Colorado Avalanche on October 28th, a game in which Markstrom had a GSAx of -4.63.

Those two games add up to an astoundingly poor two-game performance of -11.46 GSAx. That means that, through the rest of the season, Markstrom was actually a positive value goaltender in the aggregate. A near-average positive value, to be clear, as the rest of the season he put up a GSAx of +0.09, but not something that even remotely follows the consensus opinion of him.

With those two games nullified, Markstrom would have ranked 36th out of those 66 goalies in total GSAx. Ideally, that’s still not what you would want to see out of a netminder getting extended to a deal worth $6 million AAV, but it is average nonetheless.

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Markstrom’s -11.37 GSAx on the season is the lowest total of his since 2013-14, with the lowest mark in between then and now being -5.78 (2020-21), roughly half as poor as this season. In the previous eight seasons, he ended in the negative just two times. His best season was an excellent +18.68 GSAx, in 2021-22. Suffice to say, this season was an outlier in totality, and that was including two outlier games. The majority of his tenure as both an NHL goaltender and as a goaltender in New Jersey has been just fine, if not good.

It may not be a popular opinion whatsoever, but I don’t see Markstrom as a problem given that, outside of two truly atrocious games, he was an average-at-worst goaltender. Sure, looking at the box score statistics of his season paints the picture of a goalie truly struggling, and it’s easy to point the finger at the netminder’s performances — something I’m certainly guilty of myself — but taking a step back and looking at the bigger picture in terms of his performance as a goalie should provide a more positive outlook on the whole. Markstrom’s forte has always been high-danger chances, with a penchant for looking lost on the low-danger opportunities at times, which should be considered a good thing in the ever-changing NHL.

In many ways, I would expect Markstrom to have a bounce-back season in 2026-27. I don’t think he was nearly as bad as the consensus does, he has a track record of being an above-average goalie, and the assets it would take to upgrade in net would not be worth the cost. For me, there are bigger fish to fry.

Consider checking out the Devils’ Advocates Podcast, which features weekly episodes chock-full of in-depth content and exciting guest appearances. They’ll be available on this Substack, but you can also listen on your favorite platforms at the following links:

Spotify | Apple Podcasts

Sunny Mehta is the New Jersey Devils’ newest GM, a position he himself dreamed of as a kid. It’s a dream come true for many of us as well, with a data-driven, calculated individual at the helm who has a back-to-back Stanley Cup-winning pedigree to boot.

Of course, there are certainly some lessons he likely learned or integrated with the Panthers during his five years there, and, as such, I certainly hope he brings those with him to his new organization. Let’s talk about the four most important:

Lesson #1: Trust the Numbers

It’s no secret that the Florida Panthers were an organization that made the bulk of their decisions through numbers, data, and analytics. Jeff Marek made it known on the What Chaos! podcast over a year ago that they never once made a choice without running it through Mehta, who was the leader of their analytics department. Just about every decision they made was data-forward, with one or two exceptions that I’m certain had under-the-hood reasons unavailable to the public eye.

Regardless, the point is that they, as an organization, trusted in the numbers. The Devils, under Mehta, should do that too. The eye test, “intangibles,” locker room chemistry, etc., are all important to some extent, but the driving factor in decisions should be unskewed by bias, rooted in logic, and driven by data.

Lesson #2: Commit to an Identity

If there is one defining trait for what the Panthers were, and are, it is their idiosyncracy. They play their style of hockey — bruising, dump-and-chase-heavy, and in-your-face — and it is identifiable within a microsecond of viewing their on-ice product. Not only do their core players approach the game this way, but their peripheral players do, too. It was a clear, purposeful decision by the front office to get the team to play this way up and down the lineup.

The Devils had that in 2022-23, when even their fourth line was a threat off the rush by proxy of having speed and skill throughout the entire lineup, and their defense was committed to moving the puck up-ice at all costs. They veered away from this identity, partly because the NHL is a copycat league and they were seemingly trying to force their club to play Panthers hockey because it was recently successful, and partly because the front office succumbed to the fan and pundit noise surrounding them about being “too soft.”

The end result was a lineup fighting itself. The core forwards and defensemen — Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier, Timo Meier, and Luke Hughes — want to play that rush-oriented game. Aside from a couple of peripheral players, the rest of the group is aching to play “playoff hockey.” It was particularly evident following the 2023-24 season. I think Tom Fitzgerald realized the error of his ways too late and adjusted to include Arseny Gritsyuk, Connor Brown, and Cody Glass. Still, it’s time for the squad to fully commit to having speed and skill throughout the lineup so that everybody is on the same page.

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Part of this certainly has to do with the defense corps’ general inability to get the puck up the ice with purpose bordering on chutzpah, with an innate need for this group to drastically improve their puck-moving ways. The other part has to do with injecting more speed and skill throughout the forward core and playing a system conducive to that style succeeding. That doesn’t mean they couldn’t use to get “tougher,” whatever that may look like, just that they desperately need to cut ties with those who cannot contribute meaningfully in the type of system their core is desperately aching to play.

Lesson #3: Pull the Trigger

Mehta already alluded to his desire to be a team that is assertive and decisive when it comes to making moves to better the team, extrapolating his poker experience of being “tight and aggressive” to hockey decision-making. His exact words were “When you have that moment, you’re extremely aggressive — you have to have the guts to do what it takes when that moment is right to win the hand,” which I certainly think is an area the Devils can use to improve.

In the same trade deadline prior to their second consecutive Stanley Cup victory, the Panthers executed trades that brought Seth Jones, Brad Marchand, Vitek Vanecen, Kaapo Kahkonen, and Nico Sturm into the organization for their final push. The year prior, they acquired Kyle Okposo, Vladimir Tarasenko, and Magnus Hellberg at the trade deadline. Once they commit, they commit.

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Of course, that isn’t exclusive to the trade deadline. There have been plenty of other organization-altering trades executed while Mehta was in Florida outside of that short period of the season. Massive trades that brought in Matthew Tkachuk, Claude Giroux, Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett, and Brandon Montour were all executed while Mehta had a major say in hockey operations and roster construction.

Lesson #4: Sell High, Buy Low

The Panthers became the league experts at buying low while Mehta was there, and that’s a philosophy I hope he brings to the Devils as well.

At the time he was brought in to the Panthers, Sam Bennett’s career high in goals and points were 18 and 36, respectively, both of which came in his rookie season, five years prior to his being brought in to Florida. Emil Heineman was a recent second-round pick, and attaching a second-rounder at the time certainly seemed like too much value to be shipping off to Calgary in exchange for a then third-liner. Sure enough, something in Florida’s models had him as a buy-low candidate, and the rest is history.

Then came Sam Reinhart, who was acquired for Devon Levi and a first-rounder. Reinhart, 25 at the time, had been a good, not superb, top-six guy who had never scored more than 25 goals or 60 points in an NHL season. Buffalo was extremely exploitable at the time (they also sent Brandon Montour to the Panthers for a third-rounder in the same off-season, mind you), and Mehta and the Panthers took advantage, buying low on a now-perennial Selke candidate winger who consistently scores point-per-game numbers every season.

The pinnacle of selling high on assets came in the trade that brought Matthew Tkachuk to the organization. Of course, Tkachuk, then 24, let it be known that he did not want to stay in Calgary. What did Florida do, you ask? They sold exorbitantly high on Jonathan Huberdeau, 29, who was coming off a 115-point campaign in which his numbers were hyper-inflated by virtue of deployment, and who had middling-at-best underlying numbers. Mackenzie Weegar, who was 28, was having a genuinely great season as Florida’s #2 defenseman, but even he was unlikely to repeat the underlying dominance he had that year.

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Attaching a first and Cole Schwindt to the deal to sweeten it made it seem like a lot of value going to Calgary, but the reality is that none of the seasons were repeated by any of the players except Tkachuk, who is the second-most valuable player on his team and has played well above a point per game with them since getting acquired.

So, to summarize the wild buy-low, sell-high moves the Panthers made while Sunny Mehta was a principal voice in their decision-making:

In: Matthew Tkachuk (24), Sam Reinhart (25), Sam Bennett (24), Brandon Montour (26)
Out: Jonathan Huberdeau (29), Mackenzie Weegar (28), Devon Levi (19), Cole Schwindt (21), Emil Heineman (19), 2022 1st, 2025 1st, 2022 2nd, 2021 3rd

That is an absurd track record.

Sure seems like making moves like that is a forte of Mehta’s, and I certainly hope he can identify these same core-age buy-low candidates to take the Devils to the promised land.

There are many lessons to be learned from the Florida Panthers. Many fans flock to the wrong one, assuming that the only way to win in the NHL is through copying their recipe, but the others certainly take precedence in everyday roster construction and decision-making.

I can only assume he will be bringing all four of these philosophies to New Jersey as their decision-maker, and thus, it should be an extremely exciting off-season and imminent future for the Devils.

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The Devils have their first-round pick in the 2026 NHL Draft, with an 85.7% chance to get the 12th overall selection. They also have an 8.9% chance to get the 13th overall pick, a 5.1% chance at the 2nd overall pick, and less-than-half-percent chance at the 3rd, 4th, and 14th overall picks.

With that, sparks the argument of whether or not keeping the pick is worth it. There are certainly vindications for both schools of thought, so I thought it would be prudent to lay out the pros and cons for keeping it. Let’s get into it:

Pro: Future NHLer on Entry-Level AAV

Getting real, positive NHL value from entry-level contracts seems to be a commonality with Stanley Cup-contending/winning teams. If the Devils were to keep the pick, they would be getting that value at some point in the semi-near future, even if the player selected is a year or two away from being an NHL regular.

Looking at the top dogs around the league right now:

Colorado: N/A
Carolina: Logan Stankoven, Alexander Nikishin
Tampa Bay: Dominic James, Connor Geekie
Dallas: Justin Hryckowian, Arttu Hyry, Lian Bichsel
Vegas: N/A
Edmonton: Matthew Savoie, Colton Dach, Josh Samanski

Of course, some of those players are more important than others. Stankoven, Hryckowian, and Savoie are all playing in top six minutes for their respective clubs, while James, Hyry, and Dach have been regulars in the bottom-six. Of course, Nikishin has been important to Carolina’s success on the back-end, and Bichsel, Geekie, and Samanski have played limited roles.

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When we examine the last few Stanley Cup-winning teams, this holds true once again:

2024-25 Panthers: Mackie Samoskevich
2023-24 Panthers: Anton Lundell
2022-23 Golden Knights: N/A
2021-22 Avalanche: Bowen Byram, Alex Newhook
2020-21 Lightning: N/A
2019-20 Lightning: Mikhail Sergachev, Anthony Cirelli, Erik Cernak

Suffice to say, having a meaningful contributor on an ELC is a valuable ingredient in a Cup-winning team. Right now, the Devils do have Lenni Hämeenaho on an ELC for two more seasons, and Anton Silayev will likely be on one in 2027-28 with Mikhail Yegorov following him, but the more the merrier, as that gives leeway to spend elsewhere on the roster.

At what is likely 12th overall, the Devils will be getting a near-surefire NHLer, and one who will contribute meaningfully to an NHL roster in a couple of seasons. They could use that salary leverage to make savvy decisions down the road at different positions in their lineup.

Con: Completely Antithetical to Winning Now

The Devils should be a win-now organization, given the core players and their respective ages. They’re not really in a state to be waiting multiple years for prospects to get ready for the show, and, given the likelihood of them having the 12th overall selection, they’d be looking at a prospect who is at least one AHL/NCAA season away from being even a third-line or bottom-pair-caliber player.

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Thus, getting a player who simply isn’t ready for NHL time would be exactly the opposite of a win-now move. The win-now move would be to ship the pick, along with a couple of other highly-touted pieces like Simon Nemec and/or Dawson Mercer, for a bona fide top-line caliber player in his prime (like Robert Thomas) or a still-young, bona fide top-sixer (like Matthew Knies). After all, this is a team that placed 32nd in scoring at 5v5 this season and in the bottom-10 the year prior — to argue that they’re not in need of a prime scorer is probably ill-judged.

Sunny Mehta said the goals were both to win now and extend the long-term window of the team. “Winning now” entails using the pick as trade fodder.

Pro: Possible Long-Term Window Extender

We have seen that there is something to be said for teams whose goals are to extend their windows as long as possible by getting younger in the right places. The Carolina Hurricanes are the example of a team whose long-term outlook is predicated on the ideology of extending their contention window for as long as possible to give them as many shots at a Cup as possible. The Avalanche and Lightning have done this as well to varying degrees, with the Lightning’s retool this season likely being the precipice of what that might look like — after all, they supplanted many important pieces to their previous lineups with players like JJ Moser (25 years old), Conor Geekie (21), Dominic James (23), Gage Goncalves (25) over the years by hitting on some draft targets and retool-esque trades.

The Devils could follow that route. They’re an aging team, with core pieces that aren’t getting any younger, but they’re still relatively young as a group. Adding a piece who could meaningfully extend their window by a number of seasons simply by being a young, developing player through the Cup contention window may prove valuable.

Con: Effectively Telling the Core that They’re Not Ready Yet

To some extent, this ties in with the first con on the list, but using the 12th overall selection to draft a player is a clear signal that the Devils’ front office doesn’t have the faith in the roster that it should for being able to compete now. Again, Mehta himself said that he wants to win now and believes that the roster really isn’t as far off as the standings showed this past season.

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Thus, why send the memo that he isn’t fully committed to showing it? Applying the first-round pick in a trade for a piece that is both win-now and aligns with the ages of the core members of the team is a message that the belief in the group is there. As much as it is easy to neglect the whole morale and locker room vibe factor in roster-constructing decisions, they are important and it is certainly important to let the group know that the front office has confidence in them. After all, the team really isn’t that far off. Fluke injuries and a poor run of play in a system in which the ex-GM’s incompetent self had his fingers in it did them in. Sheldon Keefe’s Devils played well when they were allowed to operate as he ran the Maple Leafs. The confidence in the group should be there.

Overall, I heavily skew toward preferring that the pick is traded than kept and used. The Devils’ core players are not getting any younger — though they are not anywhere close to past their primes — and thus it is particularly important that they commit to being a win-now group with players who can both contribute meaningfully now and for the duration of their window. As much as the idea of a meaningful, very young contributor is wonderful, the notion that they should be competing to truly open their window and commit to their core now should take precedence.

Of course, this is assuming their 5% chance of winning the second overall pick does not come true. In that case, of course they should pick the leftover from the Gavin McKenna/Ivar Stenberg debate.